"The Iranian authorities have realized that speaking to Azerbaijan in a threatening tone is ineffective"

In a rare moment of diplomatic openness, Iranian President Masoud Pezeşkian has pledged to resolve the lingering tensions surrounding the attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran. During an October 14 meeting with Azerbaijan’s Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev, Pezeşkian underscored the importance of deepening cooperation between the two countries, signaling a shift from the sometimes hostile rhetoric that has marked relations between Tehran and Baku in recent years.

“There is no need to build walls at borders to strengthen and promote security, peace, and communication between countries,” Pezeşkian said, hinting at a more collaborative future. He stressed the brotherly ties between Iran and Azerbaijan, emphasizing that “the expansion of relations between the two countries is very valuable to us.” However, he also noted that the involvement of non-regional powers in the South Caucasus remains a sensitive issue for Tehran, a subtle yet pointed reminder of Iran’s longstanding apprehensions about foreign influence in the region.

But can Tehran’s olive branch be trusted?

Nasimi Mammadli, a political analyst, remains skeptical. “It’s difficult to point to any consistent evidence of Iran’s friendliness toward Azerbaijan,” Mammadli told ASTNA, referencing the tumultuous history between the two nations.

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Question: The Iranian president called Azerbaijan a friend and brother. Given the events between Iran and Azerbaijan since 2020, how sincere can we consider Pezeşkian's remarks, and how likely is it that Iran will remain committed to this policy?

Answer: So far, it has been difficult to present facts that demonstrate a friendly attitude from the Iranian leadership towards Azerbaijan. On the contrary, there are many instances of unfriendly relations. We can only hope that this approach by the Iranian president is not just his personal stance or a matter of protocol, but that it opens a new window in the future relations of the Iranian state. After all, in Iran, the president does not determine the state's main political direction. While Masoud Pezeşkian may be sincere in his position, he does not define state policy.

Furthermore, in the current contradictory and complex geopolitical processes, any such statements are situational.

We should also consider that Iran's international isolation and threats may prompt it to seek new political relations with its neighbors.

Question: Pezeşkian also said that they do not view the involvement of other countries in the region as aligning with the interests of the regional states. What message is he trying to convey here? Could there be a hidden threat in this seemingly soft message?

Answer: One of the key directions of Azerbaijan's current foreign policy is to live in conditions of close cooperation with regional states. This is even the goal of the 3+3 format. I believe this message is not directed at us. Azerbaijan has already shown its commitment to this policy.

Official Baku has clearly stated that it adheres to the principles of good-neighborliness with all its neighbors, including Iran, and has never and will never allow a third state to use its territory against Iran. At the same time, Azerbaijan remains determined to use all international opportunities for its own security. In my view, the Iranian authorities have realized that speaking to Azerbaijan in a threatening tone is ineffective. This policy has caused them more harm than it has to us.

Question: The Iranian president said that no country's sovereignty should be ignored. But in previous statements, Iran claimed that its border with Armenia is a red line. Should this rhetoric be seen as a continuation of that stance, or has it changed?

Answer: No change has been observed in Iran's policy towards Armenia. Often, rhetoric is used to mask real relationships. However, the unfolding processes in the region and the future actions of the Armenian government do not rule out the possibility of tensions.

In the Middle East and other regions, one of the greatest threats to the sovereignty of various countries has come from the Iranian authorities. Iran, which has occasionally threatened Azerbaijan, has frequently supported Armenia.

Question: Masoud Pezeşkian mentioned that they would monitor the case of the armed attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran until the legal processes are fully completed, but he did not clarify what these processes entail. What should we understand from this? Why is Iran now saying it will investigate the matter?

Answer: According to Iran's official reports, the trial related to this terrorist incident has concluded, but the execution of the verdict has been delayed. I am not fully aware of how the requirements of Iran’s criminal law were followed in this process. It seems that the legal procedures according to Iranian laws have not yet been completed.

In any case, the normalization of Azerbaijan-Iran relations largely depends on this factor. I believe that Iran will complete the legal procedures in this case to foster new and trusting relations with our country.

Question: However, looking at the situation from another perspective, the world's attention is now focused on the Iran-Israel relations due to the ongoing developments in the Middle East. Iran also seems somewhat isolated in this regard. Could it be that Iran, finding itself "trapped," is now seeking allies? Or is Iran trying to improve its relations with Azerbaijan to seek assistance?

Answer: Iran’s isolation is the result of its policies. The proxy forces Iran created to strengthen its ideological, political, and military presence in the Middle East have brought the country to the brink of war. Along with its administrative-political situation, Iran’s social and economic conditions are also deteriorating. Any war could be the beginning of the end for the Iranian regime. Naturally, Tehran would want to avoid such a war. Therefore, we might observe some temporary changes in its traditional policy.

Iran seeks alliances with major powers like Russia and China. In this regard, there is no support Azerbaijan can provide. As I mentioned earlier, we do not allow our territories to be used for military purposes against Iran. Standing in the same trench with Iran also does not align with our policy.

Economic and trade relations between Iran and Azerbaijan continuing and expanding is in the interest of both sides.

Question: What should Azerbaijan's stance be on this matter?

Answer: The behavior of official Tehran has repeatedly demonstrated a jealous attitude toward the existence of the Azerbaijani state. It perceives our country’s strength, independent foreign policy, and secular statehood as a threat. Iran has also expressed concern about Azerbaijan becoming a center of attraction for the Turks living in Iran. Therefore, there is still no trust or confidence in Azerbaijani society regarding a change in Iran's fundamental policy towards us.

Azerbaijan should contribute to the Organization of Turkic States becoming a significant new unity in the region. It should further deepen its strategic relations with Turkey. New transportation and energy corridors from Asia to Europe can greatly promote development, peace, and cooperation in this direction. Azerbaijan should expand bilateral relations with leading Western countries and resolve legal issues in the state-citizen relationship for internal stability and security.