"The main objective should be sought in Iran itself"

The message from the Israeli public broadcasting corporation Kan, which claimed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had prohibited their soldiers from staying in Azerbaijan and Georgia due to potential threats from Iran, caused confusion both in Israel and in the mentioned countries.

Several Israeli media outlets reached out to the IDF's press office for clarification but failed to receive a clear response. According to the Israeli news agency Vesty.co.il, the report about the Israeli order to leave Azerbaijan and Georgia was only published on Kan's website.

In response to Vesty.co.il’s inquiry, the IDF's press office briefly stated: "The Israeli army constantly assesses the situation and updates information on the countries where IDF soldiers are permitted to enter."

In other words, the military neither confirmed nor denied Kan's information. When the Turan news agency contacted the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan, it declined to comment on the matter. Baku also did not comment on the Israeli report.

Meanwhile, the Media Development Agency stated: "Recently, the media in some countries, citing unreliable sources, have been spreading information about Azerbaijan that is not true and aims to mislead both the local and international public."

The statement specifically mentioned the Iran International TV channel, The Telegraph, and Kan. "We declare that there are no foreign military contingents on Azerbaijani territory and strongly condemn the manipulation of information based on false data," the statement said.

Notably, the British publication The Telegraph, citing its own sources, reported that "the generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are insisting on launching direct strikes on Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, paying special attention to military bases to avoid civilian casualties. However, newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested targeting secret Israeli bases in neighboring countries."

Meanwhile, the U.S. announced that Israel might face an attack from Iran in the near future.

Former diplomat Nahid Jafarov responded to ASTNA's questions on this topic.

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Question: The British The Telegraph, citing its sources, reported that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian proposed striking secret Israeli bases in neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan. How accurate is this information?

Answer: It is very difficult to say whether this news is true or not. Even the most reputable publications sometimes make mistakes. In my opinion, the main issue here is somewhat different. It is quite possible that the plan mentioned in the news does not actually exist. That is, there may not be any plan for Iran to attack any facility in Azerbaijan. However, I believe this news could have been deliberately leaked by the Iranian government itself, particularly President Pezeshkian's office. For several reasons, the likelihood of such a plan is very low.

Azerbaijan is clearly a party within the triangle involving Iran and Russia. An attack by Iran on Azerbaijan could disrupt the dynamics of this triangle. As a result, Azerbaijan might reassess its relations with the West and develop these relations from a security perspective, demonstrating its unreliability within this geopolitical configuration. With Armenia leaning towards the West, Azerbaijan joining this process would create a highly undesirable situation for both Iran and Russia in the region.

Striking Azerbaijan is not easy. It could lead to Turkey getting involved and disrupting the positive dynamics in the Turkey-Iran-Russia triangle.

Question: Pro-government media writes that the Azerbaijani authorities consider the statement attributed to the Iranian president a fake. "The Azerbaijani side considers this a fake and disinformation. Some circles have become concerned about the normalizing relations between Iran and Azerbaijan and want to derail this process. It would be good if the Iranian side responded to these claims, refuted them, and ended the doubts," the statement says. But the expected refutation has not yet followed. What is the purpose of spreading this information? Could this news be intended to once again damage Azerbaijani-Iranian relations?

Answer: I think the main goal here should be sought in Iran itself. Iranian President Pezeshkian came to power as a representative of the reformist wing. He came to power at a time when a serious rift had developed between the Iranian people and the political authorities. For this reason, people are turning to reformers, not conservatives. It is clear that the political power in Iran prefers to win the trust of the religious leader rather than the people. On the one hand, Pezeshkian criticizes the economic policy of the previous government, supposedly to meet the expectations of the people, and on the other hand, he tries to be more radical than the conservatives to win the trust of the religious leader, which "looks like an attempt to be more Catholic than the Pope."

It is also reported that Pezeshkian is from Southern Azerbaijan, which could influence his political behavior. The "leak" of information about an attack on Israel, considered a common enemy of Iran, and the possibility of striking even Azerbaijan if necessary, is intended to show the religious leader that Pezeshkian is defending not just the interests of a particular group but the interests of the entire Iranian people.

Question: Following the publication by The Telegraph, Kan reported that the IDF had prohibited its soldiers from staying in Azerbaijan and Georgia. Is the timing of these consecutive news reports random or deliberate?

Answer: Without a doubt, the Israeli side cannot leave this to chance. The information about removing its soldiers from Azerbaijan and Georgia is a reasonable response from Israel. The state or political power cannot be deaf to the widely circulated news about the safety of its soldiers, whether the news is true or fake.

Question: The Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan and Baku did not comment on the Israeli side’s information. Instead of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), the Media Development Agency responded to the published information. The statement mentioned the Iranian TV channel International, The Telegraph, and Kan, accusing them of "engaging in information manipulation about Azerbaijan." "We declare that no foreign military contingent exists on the territory of Azerbaijan, and we strongly condemn the manipulation of information based on false data," the statement said. Why doesn’t the MFA clarify these issues? Shouldn't the MFA provide clarity on this matter?

Answer: For the MFA to clarify, approval from the Presidential Administration is needed. It seems that approval has not yet been given. On the other hand, if this threat were real, I believe Ilham Aliyev would have responded immediately and sent the necessary message to Iran. Most likely, the Azerbaijani side also understands the purpose behind this news and is delaying its reaction.

Question: The U.S. has stated that Iran might attack Israel this week. Is such an attack possible? And could Azerbaijan be affected by this in any way?

Answer: Some time ago, Iran embarrassed itself trying to carry out such an attack. It’s hard to believe that they would take the same step again, expecting a different result. It's also unlikely that the new president would take such a risky step and damage his reputation as a result.

As for Azerbaijan, the situation is somewhat different. The escalation of relations between Iran, Israel, and therefore Iran and the West could play into Ilham Aliyev's hands. In this case, the strategic importance of Azerbaijan, located next to Iran, would increase, and Aliyev would gain significant opportunities for maneuvering.

However, in the event of military escalation, the reality changes somewhat. War brings a lot of uncertainty. Authoritarian regimes also fear uncertainty and avoid it. In the case of war, a significant influx of refugees from Iran could occur, which would have a very negative impact on the socio-political situation in Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan's relations with Iran are also very fragile. They can easily deteriorate, and Azerbaijan, unintentionally, could find itself caught in the crossfire of the conflict.