Putin's visit to Baku

What prompted the unexpected visit of the Russian president to Baku?

The head of state’s departure abroad amid escalating tensions on the Ukrainian front and the loss of significant territories in the Kursk region is a difficult step to explain. For example, when the Beslan terrorist attack occurred in September 2004, Putin postponed an official visit to Türkiye. But here, with 1,000 square kilometers of the country’s territory captured, massive human and military losses, and the Ukrainian offensive continuing...

What important issues compelled Putin to fly to Baku, temporarily leaving the problem in Kursk behind? Despite all efforts, Moscow is losing international support and allies, including in its near abroad. Today, the countries willing to align more closely with Russia include China, Iran, North Korea, the Taliban in Afghanistan, and some African nations. None of them hide that they expect something from Russia in return.

Among the former Soviet states, Putin has the most trusted relationships with the leadership of Azerbaijan. However, this is not the only reason for his visit. Putin is not welcomed in Western countries, and he avoids visiting third-world countries where there are calls to enforce the Hague Court's decision to arrest the Russian president.

Another reason for this visit is Putin's desire to maintain his weakening position in the former Soviet space and prevent the U.S. and the EU from strengthening their foothold in Russia's sphere of influence. Azerbaijan is a prime example of successful resistance to Western influence while maintaining cooperation with Moscow. This model is perhaps what Moscow hopes to replicate in other countries.

Regarding the current agenda, a recent development has somewhat weakened Moscow’s position in the region. Baku and Yerevan have announced that they are ready to make peace, postponing the issue of opening communication lines. More importantly, there are reports that Armenia and Azerbaijan are willing to hand over control of these communication routes not to Russia, but to an international structure. In practice, this would mean Russia’s withdrawal from the Iran-Armenia border, which it has controlled since the collapse of the USSR. The West, as well as the Armenian government, which seeks to free itself from Russia’s influence, aim to see Russia’s departure from the Zangezur corridor and Armenia. In this context, Azerbaijan's position becomes crucial, and it is certain that this will be one of the key topics during the talks in Baku.

Accelerating the implementation of the North-South Transport Corridor project is another strategically important topic for Moscow. The launch of this project, which passes through Azerbaijan, will significantly improve Russia's trade ties and opportunities with the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia.         

The conclusion of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement is another issue where Moscow continues to compete with the West. Russia strongly opposes the idea of concluding a peace agreement on Western platforms. Gaining Baku’s support on this matter is another objective of Putin’s upcoming negotiations in Baku.

Putin's visit also comes against the backdrop of heightened tensions with Iran and ongoing threats against Azerbaijan. In this context, Putin's arrival appears to be a bonus for Baku and a warning to Tehran.