Time to Reassess the Bilateral Relationship

In the aftermath of the municipal elections on March 31, where Turkey's ruling party suffered a significant defeat for the first time in nearly 22 years, the country's foreign policy activities have markedly declined. This shift comes at a critical juncture, with global dynamics, particularly the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, demanding more nuanced diplomatic engagements.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, formerly the chief of the security service, has managed to secure some agreements with Iraq, showcasing his diplomatic finesse. However, beyond these achievements, there has been a noticeable stagnation in Turkey's international relations. The country's stance on the Russian-Ukrainian war remains ambiguous, caught between Western pressures to curtail trade and banking operations with Moscow and the lack of explicit demands from NATO.

Ankara finds itself in a precarious position, often reacting to external pressures rather than proactively shaping its foreign policy. The Western alliance's incremental approval for Ukraine to use supplied weapons more freely against Russia suggests that Turkey's passive stance may not hold indefinitely. Turkey's strategic interests in Crimea and the surrounding regions further complicate this scenario, as Ankara monitors developments and formulates potential responses.

Domestically, the geopolitical shifts have not gone unnoticed. The government is closely observing Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's evolving relationship with Moscow and his conciliatory approach towards Turkey. This recalibration could influence Ankara's longstanding dependence on Azerbaijan for normalizing relations with Armenia. However, any Turkish maneuver in this direction would necessitate a delicate balance to avoid straining ties with Baku.

On another front, Turkey's inability to address the Gaza issue, a cornerstone for the country's political Islam, has not significantly dented the ruling party's popularity. Yet, the spillover of public dissatisfaction into the streets, compounded by Azerbaijan's deepening ties with Israel, underscores a growing discontent. The activities of the "Thousand Young People for Palestine" organization, led by descendants of the ruling party's founders, further highlight the internal pressures facing the government.

The ruling party, still reeling from its electoral loss, has struggled to regain its footing despite over two months passing since the elections. Attempts to re-run elections in some regions have not altered the overall outcome. To consolidate its base, the government has resorted to invoking religious sentiments and proposing a new Constitution.

In parallel, the Milli Majlis's approval of a new curriculum draft by the Ministry of National Education has heightened tensions with secular factions. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya's daily social media updates on police operations contrast sharply with the opaque reasons behind the non-renewal of residence permits for Russian citizens. Amidst this backdrop, the European Union's increasing collaboration with Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu to resettle Middle Eastern refugees adds another layer of complexity.

Economic disparities have also widened under Finance and Treasury Minister Mehmet Shimshek's policies, enriching a small elite while exacerbating poverty for the majority. This economic strain intensifies the call for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the ruling AKP to normalize relations with opposition parties, especially the main opposition CHP.

Delaying these reconciliatory measures could amplify international demands for the release of political prisoners, an issue that remains unresolved despite external pressures. The persistent imprisonment of long-term detainees, despite earlier assurances of their release, fuels domestic and international criticism.

Meanwhile, the Interior Ministry's continued appointment of guardians to municipalities in the southeastern regions governed by the pro-Kurdish party signals an extension of the government's traditional approach. The March 31 election results have emboldened the opposition, with CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel asserting their stance against such appointments.

As Turkey navigates these turbulent waters, the critical question remains: Will the ruling party prioritize mending political divides or addressing the pressing socio-economic challenges facing the nation? The Turkish populace awaits decisive action on either front.

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