Turkey’s Growing Influence in Syria: Success and Challenges Ahead

As the conflict in Syria enters a new chapter, Turkey has emerged as the dominant player on the ground, wielding military and intelligence operations to shape outcomes in its favor. However, Ankara now faces a pivotal moment: Can it sustain its strong role in Syria amid growing economic strain, geopolitical complexities, and the uncertain future of the Syrian state?

For decades, the Assad family's rule seemed unshakable. Yet its 53-year dominance has exposed the Achilles’ heel of dictatorships—weak intelligence capabilities. Turkey’s military intervention, which began in earnest with operations in August 2016, was a turning point. Since September 2018, its intelligence efforts in Idlib have further revealed the fragility of the Assad regime, which, as critics note, resembles a “paper tiger.”

The rapid advance of jihadist forces from Idlib into Aleppo and other strategic cities highlighted the regime’s lack of preparation. By December 8, when insurgents approached Damascus, it became apparent that the Assad family’s intelligence and military apparatus was ill-prepared to counter the offensive. The subsequent appearance of Turkey’s intelligence chief alongside Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham’s leader—widely seen as Syria’s potential new power broker—was a clear signal to rival states reluctant to intervene.

Israel, seizing on the chaos, bombed 80% of Syria’s military installations and weapon depots following Bashar al-Assad’s escape to Moscow. The strikes, aimed at preventing arms from falling into jihadist hands, also reflected Israel’s unease about Turkey’s deepening role in Syria. Of particular concern is Turkey’s capacity to launch decisive operations against the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military arm, the People’s Protection Units (YPG)—Kurdish groups long opposed by Ankara.

In Israeli media, officials and commentators alike have urged the U.S. to reassert its influence. With Donald Trump back in the White House, calls for American intervention to curb Turkey’s ambitions have intensified. Some fear that Turkey, emboldened by its success, could permanently reshape the power dynamics in northern Syria.

Beyond military success, Turkey faces significant questions about the future Syrian state and its own ability to influence outcomes. The role of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, a key insurgent group with Islamist roots, remains contentious. If the group declares a secular regime, will Turkey’s support hold firm? Wealthy Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia—governed under Sharia law—may balk at funding a secular government in Damascus, complicating Turkey’s efforts to stabilize the region.

Conversely, if a Sharia-based regime emerges, Ankara may find itself caught in a delicate balancing act. Turkey’s relationship with the Taliban-led Afghanistan offers a precedent. Despite Ankara’s initial “spiritual affinity” for the Taliban, its current relationship with Kabul remains pragmatic yet limited. Will Ankara adopt a similar approach toward a new Syrian government led by Islamist forces?

Turkey’s own economic challenges compound these uncertainties. Already burdened by inflation and domestic financial pressures, Ankara’s ability to bankroll a neighboring state is questionable. Historically, Turkey relied on financial contributions from Qatar and other Gulf allies to sustain groups like the Free Syrian Army and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. Whether the Gulf states will continue their support for a new Syrian government through Turkey remains uncertain.

The future Syrian state’s relationship with Russia adds another layer of complexity. Assad’s flight to Moscow underscored the Kremlin’s immediate concern: safeguarding its military and aviation bases in Syria. Should the new regime refuse to cooperate, Russia may be forced to withdraw its assets—a scenario that would significantly impact its regional influence.

For Turkey, this raises critical questions: Could Moscow seek Ankara’s assistance in securing its foothold in Syria? How would this dynamic affect the delicate balance of Turkey-Russia relations, which have been marked by both cooperation and competition?

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has hailed the collapse of Syria’s Ba’ath regime as a positive development. With 53 of the regime’s 61 years controlled by the Assad family, Erdoğan argues that dynastic rule inherently breeds stagnation and corruption. Yet as Turkey navigates this new chapter, it faces profound challenges—financial, political, and diplomatic—that will test its leadership in the region.

In the end, the question remains: Can Turkey transform its battlefield successes into a sustainable vision for Syria, or will the complex realities of regional politics limit its influence? For Ankara, the stakes could not be higher.