While the compass comes to rest on the decisive factor

With each passing day, while bringing Turkey closer to the parliamentary/presidential elections, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the bigger than the smaller ally of the ruling bloc (before the Great Unity Party (BBP) represented by 1 MP in the parliament), is increasing its aggressiveness.

The upheavals caused by the murder of a scientist who was the former chairman of the party's youth organization on December 30 intensified and led to the resignation of thousands of members of the MHP. The AKP administrators themselves admit that this situation also created problems for the ruling bloc's major partner: words of Orhan Miroğlu, a member of the Central Decision and Executive Council, "Our voters in the East and South-East regions are sometimes dissatisfied with the alliance we established with the MHP" are the echo of this. Last fall, the AKP leader and head of state Erdoğan's efforts to raise the rating of his party with successive moves led to certain results, but since the beginning of the year, Erdoğan has also been in a waiting position. The main reason for this is that the opposition bloc has not announced its candidate yet.

It seems that the government, which released the inspector's reports without waiting for the Appellate Court and the Supreme Court stages to fully finalize the imprisonment and political ban imposed on Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu for allegedly calling the members of the High Election Council "stupid", seems to be acting somewhat slowly and hesitantly in this area.

Seeing this as an opportunity, the İmamoğlu front, acting on the principle of "people's will and the supremacy of law", decorates the streets of Istanbul with the slogan "The politician chosen by the people can be removed by the people". The main reason why the opposition bloc has not yet announced the name of its candidate for the presidency is that the date of the election has not been specified.

While the initiative in this regard is in the ruling bloc, the fact that some AKP executives pointed to May 14, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli pointed to June 18, and the head of state Erdoğan indicated "5 months later" shows that the AKP-MHP-BBP coalition has not yet made a final decision regarding the historic election.

In such a case, the words of the opposition bloc, "We will support the decision of early elections to be held before April" - have been taken out of circulation as recently as last fall. Even if it is possible that the ruling bloc will bring a law proposal to the parliament and test the maneuver of the opposition bloc on holding the election on May 14, we should not expect such a decision from the parliament.

Zigzags within the opposition bloc are also another factor preventing the announcement of the name of the joint presidential candidate. According to information from inside, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) stood like a mountain behind its leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, while the chairman of the IYI Party, Meral Akşener, insisted on Ekrem İmamoğlu as a single candidate for the presidency. Former prime minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, with his party's rating of about 1%, is already asking for great privileges in the administration, while DEVA chairman Ali Babacan, who has a rating of 2%, has already started trampling the "red lines" of the country's constitution. In other words, the Nation Alliance, which is trying to be formed as an electoral union, is actually still experiencing the difficulties of not being able to complete the formation process.

However, the most interesting aspect of the situation is that the ruling bloc is also showing its inability to turn the situation in its favor by making serious moves on these weak points of the opposition bloc. The main reason for this is that despite all the hollow or empty steps taken, radical changes in the economy cannot be achieved: it has not been possible to reduce inflation if the national currency exchange rate is kept stable to a certain extent at the cost of pressures. In this case, regardless of the party, as it becomes impossible to satisfy the citizens, the results of the public opinion polls do not show the breakthrough of the ruling bloc.

Therefore, it turns around and comes down to the political preferences of citizens of Kurdish origin. It is observed that the opposition bloc behaves relatively confidently while both blocs are hesitating to take radical steps in this direction. Because, as can be felt from the statements of the leaders of the Kurdish-oriented HDP, there will be no talk of any alliance with the ruling bloc at this stage, and the doors of an open or secret understanding with the opposition bloc will always be kept open.

Could this be the main purpose of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's visit to the United States?