Postscript to the meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and Turkish President Erdogan in New York during the UN General Assembly

On September 24, 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a significant meeting in New York on the sidelines of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly. This encounter marks a notable development in the ongoing efforts to normalize relations between Armenia and Turkey, with both leaders emphasizing dialogue as a key component in the process.

The meeting took place at the "House of Turkey," a symbolic venue that underscored Turkey’s diplomatic outreach during the UN event. President Erdogan used the occasion to present Pashinyan with a commemorative gift, signaling a gesture of goodwill. While the exact content of their discussions remains undisclosed, Pashinyan reportedly briefed Erdogan on the current status of the normalization process between the two countries, which began gaining traction in recent years after decades of strained relations.

Both leaders have publicly stressed the necessity of dialogue in resolving long-standing issues, including historical grievances and regional security concerns. "Armenia views dialogue with Turkey as essential, not only for bilateral relations but for the stability of the entire region," a senior Armenian government official said, reflecting Pashinyan’s position. This sentiment echoes earlier efforts to rekindle ties, which saw high-level meetings in the summer of 2024.

Turkey, which has maintained a complex relationship with Armenia largely due to the Armenian Genocide dispute and regional conflicts, has also signaled its interest in turning a new page. "This meeting is a crucial step towards stabilizing the South Caucasus, and we hope to continue building on these discussions," a Turkish diplomatic source remarked after the meeting.

Analysts view this meeting as part of a broader regional recalibration. The South Caucasus remains a region of geopolitical friction. Some experts believe that the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations could positively influence peace efforts in the region, though it remains a delicate balancing act for all parties involved.

"Both leaders are under domestic and international pressure to find lasting solutions that could contribute to regional stability. This meeting shows a commitment from both sides to continue these efforts, even if there are no immediate breakthroughs," said a political analyst specializing in Caucasus affairs.

Despite the optimism surrounding this dialogue, challenges remain. Armenian and Turkish societies continue to harbor mutual mistrust, with unresolved historical grievances being a significant hurdle. Additionally, the geopolitical rivalry between Armenia and Azerbaijan adds complexity to any potential rapprochement between Yerevan and Ankara. Erdogan’s strong alliance with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev means that any significant movement in Turkish-Armenian relations will likely be scrutinized closely in Baku.

Some critics in Armenia are skeptical about Turkey's intentions. “There’s always a concern that Turkey might be using this as a strategic move to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus without addressing the core issues,” said an Armenian opposition figure.

Nevertheless, the meeting between Pashinyan and Erdogan is viewed as a positive step forward, with both leaders underscoring the importance of dialogue. The international community will be watching closely to see if these diplomatic efforts will lead to tangible progress in the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.

A Path to Stability?

The continuation of high-level meetings, like the one in New York, offers hope that Armenia and Turkey may eventually overcome their historical differences. The symbolic setting of the "House of Turkey" and the exchange of gifts reflect the intent of both leaders to foster a more amicable relationship. However, the path to stability will require not only dialogue but also concrete actions addressing the core issues that have kept these nations apart.

"The challenges are real, but so is the opportunity," said a Western diplomat familiar with the talks. "Both leaders recognize that peace and stability in the South Caucasus cannot be achieved without their countries playing a constructive role."