It is perplexing that being in the strongest of alliances, one would gravitate toward others

Since the time when President R.T. Erdoğan referred to Trump as 'my friend Donald,' he has not been able to visit the U.S. on an official trip. Therefore, speaking at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly on September 24 (New York, September 24-30, 2024), he used the UN platform to address many pressing issues (the situation in Palestine, Ukraine, etc.), and his speech was met with enthusiastic applause. He also lamented the fact that the U.S. supports 'terrorist organizations,' imposes restrictions on Turkey's defense industry, but added that he is quite optimistic about the possibility of increasing the level of foreign trade turnover between the U.S. and Turkey from the current $30 billion to $100 billion.

However, the necessity of bringing the trade turnover with Russia to the same $100 billion has been discussed for many years, but it has not yet been possible to exceed the level of $37 billion. Noting that Turkey is one of the strongest allies in NATO, Mr. R. Erdoğan emphasized in a broader context that his country is seriously committed to strengthening cooperation not only with Western countries but also with regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and ASEAN (it seems that leadership in the Organization of Turkic States has been delegated to Baku).

President R. Erdoğan deemed it necessary to add that regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections on November 5, Turkey will not change its position towards the U.S. and will continue high-level dialogue. These statements by President R. Erdoğan raised several questions for us, which we would like to share with our readers:

1. How, given that the gaps created by the uproar over Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 systems have yet to be filled, does Turkey plan to address the problems hindering the development of its defense industry?

2. Could Washington, whose approval for Turkey's further development of its defense industry is taken for granted, pose certain obstacles to it?

3. What necessity, in light of the claims 'We are a strong NATO member and develop relations with the West,' dictates the inclination toward such alliances as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, where Russia is active? What can these countries, far behind Turkey in terms of democratic development, offer Turkey?

We wish President Erdoğan success, who at the annual sessions of the UN General Assembly calls for radical changes in the activities of this organization to support and strengthen international peace and security, as well as to foster cooperation between states.

As is well known, elections are a litmus test of democracy, and the decline in the ruling party's rating in general or additional presidential, parliamentary, or municipal elections strengthens the positions of opposition parties. In this regard, the most memorable event was the additional elections in Turkey on October 14, 1978, when the opposition Motherland Party of Justice (led by Süleyman Demirel) won all the seats in parliament, and the government of B. Ecevit, finding itself in the minority, resigned.

Another historic event was the municipal elections on March 31, when the main opposition Republican People's Party won a victory over the ruling party, which had been in power for 22 years, and took control of all major local governments in the country (85% of the national income comes from regions governed by these municipalities).

The experienced figure of Turkish politics – R.T. Erdoğan, despite radically changing the central governance system of the country on July 9, 2018, establishing a strong presidential regime, suffered a serious defeat for the first time, indicating that by early autumn the opposition would increase pressure. To foresee and outline all this back in April, it was enough to carry out serious work on these issues. Predicting increased pressure, we never forgot the necessary caution in such cases because the pressure could increase by the end of this autumn or no later than the autumn of the following year.

At the same time, we never doubted that sooner or later this process would intensify, and ultimately the main opposition party, through well-calculated tactical measures, would bring it to the stage of early elections. And since we have written about this many times, we apologize and want to repeat: in one of the 4,000-year-old Icelandic sagas, a man who said 'There is no God' was asked by another, 'Is there cabbage?'

Since without improving macroeconomic indicators, neither the government's nor the ruling party's rating can be raised, after March 31, the processes led to the consolidation of the positions of both the doyen of R.T. Erdoğan and the three leaders of the opposition: the leader of the Republican People's Party (RPP), Özgür Özel, the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu, and the mayor of Ankara Mansur Yavaş. That is, if until March 31, R.T. Erdoğan, who was attacking the then-leader of the RPP Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, managed to tie the hands of Ekrem İmamoğlu with court rulings, now he cannot find a way to lower his rating. Therefore, Mr. R. Erdoğan is primarily interested in confirming the court's sentence regarding E. İmamoğlu.

In the words of the guru of Turkish political Islamists, former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, if Ekrem İmamoğlu is invited 'to wrestle with his hands tied,' it is still impossible to predict whether the ruling party will benefit from it or lose.

So, while waiting for the court's decision, let's continue to closely follow the actions of the opposition Motherland Party."