Moscow plans to ramp up UAV production

Baku/29.08.23/Turan:  Following Russia's recent military actions against Ukraine, indications have emerged that the assembly of Shahed attack unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is underway within Russia. The Russian government is reportedly strategizing to bolster drone production domestically, according to statements made by Vadim Skibitsky, a representative of Russia's military intelligence agency GRU, in a comment to the RBC-Ukraine agency and DIU on Telegram.

Skibitsky's statement detailed, "Following the Shahed attacks, we uncovered certain elements pointing to the final stages of UAV assembly transpiring in Russia. This is evidenced by the upswing in the use of Russian spare parts in these drones. Furthermore, we are aware of the aggressor's plans to extend 'Shahed' production within Russia."

Further details emerged, as Skibitsky revealed that during a Russian defense industry exhibition, representatives from the country's defense sector unveiled ambitions to develop roughly 60 UAVs with diverse modifications by 2030.

Skibitsky elaborated that preliminary data from DIU intelligence suggested Russia's intent to manufacture 1,300 units of "Geran-2" drones, commonly known as "Shaheds," during the latter half of this year. This production would rely on a combination of foreign and domestic components. Nevertheless, the DIU representative expressed skepticism regarding Russia's capacity to produce such a significant number of UAVs.

DIU currently gathers information concerning the actual production capabilities of Russian facilities where these drones are assembled and the specific companies involved in component supply.

Regarding missile production, Skibitsky noted an increase since the start of spring. In August, Russia projected the manufacture of approximately 118 missile units, encompassing "Daggers," "Iskander-M," "Iskander-K," "Caliber," X-101, and modified X-22 (X-32) models.

Skibitsky expounded, "Alongside six Daggers, Russia's plans comprise 30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 12 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 20 Calibers, and around 40 X-101s in August. Additionally, they are enhancing X-22 cruise missiles, now upgraded as X-32. Based on our assessments, Russia could produce a maximum of 10 upgraded missiles per month."

In accordance with DIU estimates, the Russian arsenal currently houses 585 missiles with a range exceeding 500 kilometers. Among these, approximately 270 are Iskanders, 140 are Calibers, and around 100 are X-101, X-555, and X-55 missiles with warheads.

Russia also possesses roughly 75 Dagger air-to-ground ballistic missiles and 150 X-22 missiles, which are subjects of ongoing improvement efforts.

Simultaneously, Skibitsky disclosed that Russia is reevaluating its strike tactics due to restricted reserves and production of certain missile types. The nation is shifting toward diverse missile classes, enhancing precision targeting, and placing significant emphasis on charting flight paths for cruise missiles and UAVs to circumvent Ukrainian air defenses.

DIU suggests that this tactical shift could be rooted in Russia's aim to accumulate weaponry before the autumn-winter period for renewed attacks on Ukraine's energy systems.

Yet, Skibitsky indicated that substantial attacks akin to those in October, November, and December of the previous year, during which Russia simultaneously launched 70 to 100 missiles, are improbable to recur.