New Syria: Opportunities and Challenges

Murat Yesiltas, a lecturer in the Department of International Relations at the Ankara University of Social Sciences, wrote an analytical article for Anadolu Agency about the formation of a new state in Syria.

The Syrian revolution has achieved its goal, but the journey for the country is just beginning. The primary objective of the revolution was to overthrow the Assad regime. For 13 years, the regime repeatedly faced the brink of collapse. However, what could not be achieved over years happened in just 12 days: the Baath Party regime, which had ruled for 61 years, was overthrown. Bashar al-Assad, the leader of the fallen Baath regime and the individual most responsible for the suffering and bloodshed of the past 13 years, was forced to flee the country and seek refuge in Russia.

Much will be written and many stories told about this revolution. Yet, the key question is how Syria's future will now be shaped. This future will depend on several factors, which can be categorized as internal, regional, and international dynamics.

Internal Dynamics

From the perspective of internal dynamics, the rapid collapse of the regime serves as a crucial starting point. Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) played a leading role in overthrowing the regime. Consequently, HTS will hold significant influence in managing the transitional process. Syria's Prime Minister, Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali, who remained a symbolic representative of the regime in Damascus, peacefully handed over power to the opposition. This facilitated a relatively smooth start to the transition period, creating a somewhat legitimate foundation for power balance within Syria.

However, the primary priority in Syria after the regime's collapse is ensuring comprehensive security. To achieve this, military confrontations must cease entirely, and daily life must be made safe.

Regional Dynamics

Turkey's role as a regional player has become so prominent that it cannot be overlooked. Understanding Turkey's role in Syria requires looking back over the past 13 years, not just the recent 12 days. Ankara provided continuous refuge to Syrian refugees, shaped military and diplomatic conditions to protect Idlib from regime operations, fought terrorism, and curtailed the influence of the PKK/YPG. These efforts laid a solid foundation for the opposition's success achieved within 12 days.

International Dynamics

In the new period, the United States' priorities in Syria include ensuring Israel's security, maintaining the presence of the PYD/YPG, and continuing the fight against ISIS.

The current situation could also facilitate President Trump’s plans to withdraw troops from Syria. Considering that plans and scenarios developed before November 27 have lost relevance for Washington, it can be argued that the new Syria will not be a priority for the U.S. in the Middle East. Nonetheless, Turkey and the U.S. have many opportunities to build a new Syria without the PYD/YPG. A strategy centered on the PYD/YPG will be practically unworkable in the new Syria.

It is also evident that Russia is re-evaluating its position in Syria, analyzing the reasons behind the new developments. The most prudent approach for Russia appears to be avoiding its previous stance in Syria, focusing instead on the political process and building relations with the new authorities. At this stage, it is highly likely that Russia will leverage UN Resolution 2254 and the Astana format to expand its diplomatic presence.

A New Era

New Syria represents one of the largest geopolitical shifts of the "Arab Spring." While the revolution has reached its primary goal, establishing a new order in Syria is fraught with challenges. The lessons from Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and Tunisia are filled with political and social upheavals. Tunisia and Egypt chose to pursue "new authoritarianism" based on institutionalized systems. Yemen and Libya remained mired in political and military conflict due to unstructured systems and failed to restore order. Syria is an exception, as its civil war lasted far longer, and the overthrown Baath regime had a completely different institutional framework.

If those who successfully led the revolution can establish a new order and build a sustainable model in Syria, the new Syria could achieve significant geopolitical gains in the Middle East. The only way to accomplish this is by creating a just, democratic, and sustainable order. However, such a model has yet to emerge, and building it will not be easy.