Reuters

Reuters

I have watched all the economic crises in Turkey since 1994 from the inside. The severe devaluation in February 2001 not only shook politics but redesigned it. It was the wave that brought the AKP into politics.

Although the Mortgage crisis, which began in 2008, has been overcome in one way or another, the lack of control over public spending and heavy debt have created new threats to the economy since 2015.

Just as political-diplomatic-military disagreements with the United States have led to sharp devaluations, changes in the political system have made it difficult to borrow.

As the effects of the epidemic on the economy made it impossible to borrow from the world, the remedy was to knock on the door of Qatar, the closest friend. Although Doha gave money through the swap line, according to the candidate of the opposition in the 2018 presidential elections, Muharrem İnce, the line was opened at the rate of 1 dollar = 12.06. İnce’s claim has not been refuted so far.

Finding currency in Qatar has become medicine for a part of the government's concern. However, the government found a way to do this by printing new banknotes, as it needed additional money both to meet the demand for banknotes in the domestic market and to repay an urgent portion of foreign debt.

The move by the Central Bank (at the behest of the government), which issued new banknotes despite warnings of rising inflation, has both created some relief in the domestic market and given the government a breath of fresh air in the repayment of urgent debts, albeit for a short time. In other words, the government collects currency from the market with new banknotes issued by the Central Bank to repay urgent foreign debts, and this situation does not cause an earthquake in the market.

As for inflation in the domestic market, Turkey has followed the same path since the fall of 2018 as authoritarian regimes announce macroeconomic indicators. Everyone knows that the figures do not reflect the real situation in the market; however, the government does not take into account public opinion and designs everything the way it wants. In other words, apart from Qatar's swap line, the policy of printing new banknotes, which seems to be the main measure, continues (as it was in the 1990s). Monthly statistics are designed and published by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance. This is the current situation in Turkey...

A few days ago, news came from Baku that "buyers will be asked the reason in foreign exchange sales of more than $ 500." Turkey tried to take this measure in the fall of 2018 to control currency movements in the market, but to no avail.

Azerbaijan, on the other hand, seems to be trying to control even smaller sales. This means that there are serious problems with currency supply and demand, and the Central Bank wants to take preventive measures against it.

Although commendable, it is unlikely that controlling the market in this way will be of any use, and that more severe devaluation is likely to occur under this pressure. You see, since the beginning of 2000, the Central Bank of Turkey has also tried to control the foreign currency by the administrative methods that Baku is trying to do today. However, the pressure on the market was so severe that the government was forced to accept the most difficult conditions by knocking on the door of the International Monetary Fund.

Now that the conditions for knocking on the IMF's door have worsened, it seems the most realistic option for Baku to follow Turkey's lead, both to prevent devaluation and to have the market breathed: the Central Bank should print new banknotes to ease the market, at least in part.

Although I do not know the amount of debt to foreign countries, it is possible to repay some of the urgent debt by collecting currency from the market using new banknotes to be printed.

I repeat: in Azerbaijan, as in Turkey, the statistics do not reflect the truth, and no one is interested in the rules of the market. The most important thing in the current situation is to create liquidity, that is, to have the market breathed by printing free banknotes. Instead of keeping the $ 500 under pressure, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan should create liquidity in the market, and it will see that citizens will be satisfied, which will be better than the slightest devaluation.

On February 19, 2001, when “the outbreak of economic crisis” happened in Turkey, the Central Bank allowed the exchange rate to "fluctuate". Rahmi Koç, the head of the country's largest group of companies, made a brief and specific demand: "Syringe money into the market."

Azerbaijani citizens would be exhausted from impoverishment beyond this, and if their throats are a little jumped down, they will suffocate.

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