On 18 November, while Turkish and Western media commented on the outcome of President Erdogan’s visit to Washington , the Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, expressed dissatisfaction with Russia and the United States, saying they still had not fulfilled the promise to withdraw YPG / PKK from the security zone and that Turkey ready to take it over again. What and for whom was this statement intended?
What was the likelihood that Ankara will continue in Syria the operation "Source of Peace", launched on October 9 and suspended 13 days after the exhortations of Washington and Moscow?
Moscow's response was not long in coming: the Kremlin said that Russia had fulfilled its obligations, and Turkey should not express dissatisfaction. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed himself more harshly: they say that the withdrawal of Kurdish forces in northern Syria is almost over, and Ankara said she did not plan a new military operation there. Then can it be assumed that Cavusoglu deliberately changed the agenda? However, Washington’s answer to the minister’s words was no longer necessary, as the question of Their Majesty S-400 was on the agenda.
As we wrote the day after the start of Erdogan’s visit, it was no secret to anyone that the talks on these Russian missiles would be the main issue in the negotiations in Washington. Since at the press conference neither D. Trump nor R.T. Erdogan did not begin to hide this, then Moscow immediately made a tactical move, saying: in accordance with the agreement and the program, in April 2020 the S-400 will be activated.
Then, how should one understand the statement of the presidents made at a press conference in Washington on November 13: "Our foreign ministries and national security advisers will work together on the issue of the S-400."
An explanation was given by the adviser and press secretary of the President of Turkey, Ibrahim Kalyn, who said that at the NATO summit on December 3-4, the joint Turkish-American commission would begin an “exchange of proposals” on the S-400 and F-35. As expected, the target was NATO:
“Our first important meeting will be held at the NATO summit, which will be held on December 3-4. We will give our own and receive their proposals; I can say that this process has begun. ”
The fact that eventually the issue of the S-400 will be discussed in NATO was clear for a long time: meeting the desire of Turkey in this matter, Vladimir Putin aimed not so much to sell weapons to Ankara as to create chaos in NATO, and he achieved to some extent of this. However, when the matter was already done, all parties understood that the question of the S-400 at the Turkey-US negotiations would be considered from a different perspective.
Reviving all the processes in the Ankara-Moscow-Washington triangle, it is easy to see that all parties were satisfied. Indeed, in the end, Tayyip Erdogan expanded the field for maneuver in domestic politics, Vladimir Putin first tasted the sale of weapons to NATO, and Donald Trump, in accordance with the economic and strategic interests of the United States, seemed to sympathize with Moscow, but in fact was able to delay skillfully the realization of its interests in the region.
Yes, the recipient again is NATO. For some time we have been repeating that the processes involved in these matters are already being directed by the deep state of Turkey, and President Erdogan is leading the processes. What could be more natural than specifying NATO as the addressee of the deep state? Because NATO has never been an ally of any government or individual in Turkey.
On December 3-4, no one will take any radical steps in connection with the S-400; there will be no sharp return to the past. The processes taking place in time will advance and end in favor of NATO and Turkey.