With which country is it sure about the swap line?

Due to important political disagreements, the Fed's failure to open a $ 2.7 billion swap line and President Erdogan's firm refusal to knock on the door of the International Monetary Fund again naturally directed Turkey to different alternatives.

Discussions have been held with about 90 countries, and discussions can be specified with 4 countries: Britain, Japan, China, and Qatar. As we wrote earlier, in order to keep customers away from the dollar, the Central Bank prints money without reciprocation to meet the need for foreign exchange, and the requirements are met to some extent by taking dollars with that money because Mr. Erdoğan also opposed raising interest rates.

We have been drawing attention since the fall of 2018: in the fight against inflation, Turkey is applying the rules of the one-party communist system, not the free market.

As a result, interest rates are constantly falling, and inflation figures released by the Statistics Agency do not reflect reality. Since most of the questions asked by the opposition in parliament to the members of the government remained unanswered, it does not matter which country opens the swap line or not. Is it easier or harder to run the country? Of course, time will tell.

Turkey has signed a $ 1 billion deal with China to make money through barter. If the quota is not increased, it is not even worth thinking about what this $ 1 billion will be a remedy to and to what it won’t in the current situation.

Ankara is trying to raise the figure and it is not difficult to predict what demands Beijing will make. A statement from Tokyo said it was "still considering" opening a swap line with the Turkish Central Bank. Although Minister of Treasury and Finance, Berat Albayrak, has been trying to borrow from Britain for the past 1.5 years, political demands (such as mitigation of the "Kurdish problem"), along with economic demands, such as "Raise interest rates" in the first place, have greatly complicated Ankara's situation and made it impossible to achieve results.

However, only Qatar remains the most reliable partner in recent years. In fact, Qatar can be called the "economic partner" of today's Turkish Republic.

The close relationship between the President of Turkey and the Emir of Qatar, which went as far as donating a $ 500 million plane, has opened all the doors to Doha so much that the biggest companies are being sold to Qatar as soon as they need hot money.

Close relations are at the highest level not only in the economic sphere but also in the military sphere, and as a result, the biggest support for Turkey's policy in Libya comes only from Qatar.

In early 2016, President Erdoğan established the Wealth Fund, which includes the country's largest state-owned companies. As if with the guarantees of the Fund, which is superior to the state treasury, was aimed at obtaining large loans from abroad, but after failing to do so in 2.5 years, Mr. Erdoğan, who had been in power alone since the presidential election on June 24, 2018, appointed himself the President of the Fund (his deputy is his son-in-law, Minister of Treasury and Finance, Berat Albayrak).

It is now clear to both Ankara and the world that the only way to get a loan or to have a swap line opened is the guarantee of the Wealth Fund, which is worth $ 200 billion.

It is also clear why this has provided Qatar the most: Mr. Erdoğan has no difficulty at selling any profitable company to Qatar, either from the Wealth Fund or outside of it. From an economic point of view, as well as from the point of view of military support for Ankara in Syria and Libya, there is no need for astrology to assume that the unlimited "money supply" provided by Qatar is guaranteed by the Turkey Wealth Fund. Therefore, the parties move very comfortably: the President of Turkey with the Wealth Fund, the Emir of Qatar with the overflowing money of the liquefied gas...

How does this situation affect the characteristics of the state structure of Turkey and how will it affect?

Let’s be sure that no one thinks about it, the policy of "give-and-take" is in circulation...

Mayis Alizade