Retrospective and perspective view of the next stage of privatization in Azerbaijan

The paradoxical development trajectory of resource-rich states is described with various epithets. A wide array of terms is used in this context: "resource curse," "devil's excrement," "distorted development," "African fever," "Dutch disease," "paradox of plenty," and so on. Qatar, which leads the world in GDP per capita, also uses another intriguing phrase: “children of oil.”

In 2024, one of the most notable developments in the Azerbaijani economy that demands detailed analysis is the transformation of foreign trade statistics. This article provides an in-depth examination of Azerbaijan's foreign trade landscape in 2024, focusing on its dynamics, structure, and geographic composition. It evaluates emerging trends, highlights current and future challenges, and considers devaluation expectations alongside their short- and medium-term implications. For a comprehensive perspective, the analysis also includes a retrospective review of the past three years, emphasizing the post-COVID recovery period.

The State Statistics Committee (SSC) has released the macroeconomic indicators of the country's economic and social development for January-December 2024[1]. Let’s review the most significant of these indicators.

As 2025 begins, Azerbaijan faces a convergence of economic and geopolitical challenges that threaten its stability and test its resilience. From fluctuating oil prices to shifting alliances, the country is at a critical juncture, requiring bold reforms and strategic foresight to avert economic instability.