The transition from oligarchic governance to managerial governance in Azerbaijan

The analysis of oligarchic governance mentioned in the first article and the assessment of changes in this area showed that the right to represent in public administration is exercised by a centralized appointment, not by real choice, as there is no environment for political processes in Azerbaijan. The decision-making process in public administration was carried out with the participation of oligarchs, not political institutions. In this case, Azerbaijan has not formed a parliament that can control the executive branch, a free judiciary that can overturn unconstitutional laws, an independent Central Bank that does not allow the state treasury to go bankrupt, a free press and non-governmental organizations that exercise public control. All this did not allow the emergence of active citizens who support the independence of institutions that are important for the rule of law, open society, and public control. What kind of governance system was formed in Azerbaijan?

In the previous article, I tried to answer this question through descriptions of oligarchic rule. This time I will try on the results.

Journalist Rauf Mirgadirov, describing the system of governance during the rule of father Aliyev, said: “At this stage, the Aliyevs, including Ramiz Mehdiyev, Artur Rasizade, Kamaladdin Heydarov, Murtuz Alasgarov, Ziya Mammadov, Baylar Ayyubov, Farhad Aliyev, Eldar Mahmudov, Ali Insanov, ruled the country as a company.”[1]

If we look at those on this list, we can see that during the time of son Aliyev, only Kamaladdin Heydarov and Baylar Ayyubov retained their previous positions, while Ramiz Mehdiyev was removed from his previous important post and now serves as president of the National Academy of Sciences. Among those on the list, Murtuz Alasgarov, a former Speaker of the parliament, has died. Others, though alive, have been removed from office at various times. Two of them - former Minister of Economy, Farhad Aliyev, and former Minister of Health, Ali Insanov - have lived long prison terms since being ousted; however, only Ali Insanov continues to work for the opposition after his release from arrest. Former Prime Minister, Artur Rasizade, former Minister of National Security, Eldar Mahmudov, and former Minister of Transport, Ziya Mammadov, were dismissed but not punished.

Who are replacing them?

Let me note in advance that none of those who replaced them have the status of oligarchs, they are just managers. Such that Samir Nuriyev[2] is currently the head of the presidential administration, which plays an important role in public administration, especially in political decision-making. Unlike his predecessor, Ramiz Mehdiyev[3], Samir Nuriyev, who has been in this position for almost three years, does not attract attention with his active participation in making governing decisions and political statements. The activities of neither Novruz Mammadov[4], who replaced his predecessor Artur Rasizade[5], nor Ali Asadov[6] as the Prime Minister, which is a nominal position in Azerbaijan, has not been very distinguished, especially after the appointment of Mehriban Aliyeva to the post of First Vice President. The two governing institutions, the vice presidency and the prime minister's office, remain overshadowed by the president's executive branch. Although the new prime minister is a middle-class oligarch, he performs managerial functions in the current position.

Although Kamaladdin Heydarov retained his current political post, he was neutralized and removed from political decision-making and economic governance as he lost control of his business empire in favor of the ruling family's Pasha Holding.

Former Speaker of the parliament, Murtuz Alasgarov[7], has never been on the list of oligarchs because he belongs to the academic community. His successor, Rasul Guliyev[8], is currently in exile. Rasul Guliyev's successor, Ogtay Asadov[9], continues to serve as a member of parliament because he was not "re-elected" in the last election. The current Speaker Sahiba Gafarova[10] is a manager, her participation in public policy and decision-making is almost non-existent and her business opportunities are weak.

Former Minister of Transport, Ziya Mammadov, lost his 15-year post in 2017 as a result of merging his ministry with another ministry. Ziya Mammadov has since been removed from public administration, decision-making, and the ownership of businesses he previously controlled. His capital and business structures are also concentrated in the property of the ruling family. The Ministry of Communications and High Communications, to which the transport sector was merged, has also had a management system since then.

Baylar Ayyubov[11], the head of the Security Service of the President, still holds the same position. Although articles have been published in the local press, saying his ability to influence business and political governance was restricted, it has not yet been officially confirmed.

Although Farhad Aliyev, the former Minister of Economic Development, was replaced by another oligarch, Heydar Babayev, the ministry later underwent changes to move from oligarchic governance to managerial governance. After Heydar Babayev's successor Shahin Mustafayev[12] was appointed Deputy Prime Minister, he was replaced by Mikayil Jabbarov[13], who was the first on the basis of managerial governance. Prior to his appointment as Minister of Economy in 2019, Mikayil Jabbarov served as Minister of Education in 2013-2017 and Minister of Taxes in 2017-2019.

In the modern history of Azerbaijan, the history of managerial governance is very young compared to oligarchic governance, and this history began with the appointment of Mikayil Jabbarov as Minister of Education and was a pilot until 2018. The list of pilot ministries also includes the Ministry of Communications and High Communications, the Ministry of Energy, and the Ministry of Taxes. After the presidential elections[14] on April 11, 2018, the expansion of managerial governance of line ministries implementing state policy has begun. By presidential decrees, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population, and the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources have been transferred to the managerial governance system in 2018, the Ministry of Economy - in 2019, the Ministry of Culture - in 2020, and the Ministry of Health - in 2021. It is expected that in the near future, the Ministry of Sports and Youth will be transferred to the managerial governance system.

Apparently, to date, the oligarchs have been removed from the management of all remaining ministries, except for the Minister of Finance, law enforcement, and defense. At present, the oligarchs are being removed from state-owned companies (SOCs). The current government, which wants to achieve this through the transition to a corporate governance system, is currently working to establish a Supervisory Board and improve the management structure of large SOCs. One of the goals of this approach is to involve managers in the management of SOCs. This will be discussed in detail in the next article.

[1] https://bakuresearchinstitute.org/az/elita-yoxlugu-problemi-haqqinda-bezi-mulahizeler/?fbclid=IwAR0ZZsQMmHqZvGYxnXAI9JyveiL366nSPNPv8XFZ8z5d8a2zM2-peilMidw

[2] https://en.president.az/administration/head

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramiz_Mehdiyev

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novruz_Mammadov

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artur_Rasizade

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Asadov

[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murtuz_Alasgarov

[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasul_Guliyev

[9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogtay_Asadov

[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahiba_Gafarova

[11] https://az.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C9%99yl%C9%99r_Eyyubov

[12] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahin_Mustafayev

[13] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikayil_Jabbarov

[14] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Azerbaijani_presidential_election