A referendum and elections are ahead of us

Twice as much money has been allocated from next year's budget for the elections of the Central Election Commission (CEC). The draft Law "On the State Budget" for 2024 states that  it is planned to allocate 110 million 935 thousand manats from the state budget for elections and statistical events next year. This is by 2.3 times more than were allocated from the state budget for 2023.  The amout   allocated  for 2024  is by  1.9 times more than in 2020, when the last parliamentary elections were held (57.7 million manats), by 2.2 times more than in 2019, when the last municipal elections were held (51.3 million manats), and  by 1.6 times more than in 2018, when there were the last presidential elections were held (67.6 million manats).

What kind of elections can there be?

It is known for sure that municipal elections are to be held in Azerbaijan next year.  This election will be different from the previous ones. Because there is already Karabakh. How will it be now? Who can participate in the elections from Karabakh? Should any changes be made to the legislation?

Recently  MP Erkin Gadirli also said that a referendum will be held in the autumn of 2023, elections to the Milli Majlis will be held next November, municipal elections will be held in December, and presidential elections will be held in April 2025.

The chairman of the Public Association for the Study of Democracy Mirali Huseynov answers the questions of ASTNA on this topic.

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Question: By two  times more money has been allocated from the budget for next year's CEC elections.  Next year is the year of municipal elections. But what kind of elections do you think will follow the municipal ones?

Answer:  The fact that the CEC has allocated more funds from the budget than is provided for one election suggests that a certain plan already exists. Most likely, the increase is due to the holding of another referendum, an issue that has long been discussed on the sidelines and from time to time, albeit informally, is voiced in the corridors of power by close people.  It is unlikely that the mention of the need for a referendum by the Chairman of the Human Rights Committee of the Milli Majlis, Zahid Oruch, can be accidental. It is clear that Mr. Zahid Oruj would not have spoken about this without the consent of the highest political authority. The observed changes and trends in the political life and governance of the country also reinforce the assumptions associated with the allegations regarding the holding of another referendum, including amendments to the Constitution.

Question: According to the Constitution, the term of office of the convocation of the Milli Majlis of the Republic of Azerbaijan, elected in early elections, may be less than five years. In this case, regular elections to the Milli Majlis of the Republic of Azerbaijan are held on the first Sunday of November of the fifth year of the term of office of the convocation of the Milli Majlis of the Republic of Azerbaijan, elected in early elections. But can parliamentary elections be held next November?

Answer: Of course, theoretically and legally it is possible. But I don't think it's possible now.  At the very least, there is currently no need and compelling reasons for holding early parliamentary elections.  If the parliament does not create problems and threats to political power, there is no point in mixing elections with others. Holding the next municipal elections in December 2024 makes holding elections to the Milli Majlis unlikely.

Question: There are only a few days left until the end of October. According to the legislation, the referendum must be announced 60 days in advance. That is, if this month ends, it means that the question of the referendum will be postponed to next year or will not be held. But many experts believe that if a referendum is not held, the parliamentary elections will not be effective. What do you think about this? Will the referendum take place at the end of this year or the beginning of next year?

Answer: First of all, let's start with whether the referendum will take place? Several factors, including rumors that the authorities have been preparing for this for a long time, as well as the circulation of this idea in the current conditions, which are very favorable for the authorities, are an indicator that the intention to hold a referendum is serious. Changing political realities and challenges also encourage the authorities to make changes. Time and current realities give reason to believe that the referendum that will lead to these changes will take place next year.

As for the expectations related to the holding of parliamentary elections after the referendum, I, of course, share these expectations. Again, if you believe the rumors, there is an intention to switch to a parliamentary republic and a proportional electoral system.  Changes in legislation and practice regarding political parties also give reason to believe that these assumptions are close to reality. Therefore, it seems more reasonable and logical to hold elections to the Milli Majlis next year after the referendum is expected to "comb" the political and electoral systems of the country.

Question: Municipal elections are to be held in Azerbaijan next year. This election will be different from the previous ones. Because there is already Karabakh.  Municipalities should be formed in Karabakh. What will happen now? Who will be able to participate in the elections from Karabakh? Should any changes be made to the legislation?

Answer: The fact of permanent residence of a person in the relevant municipal territory, that is, registration in this territory, acts as a requirement of the right to participate in municipal elections for a citizen who has the right to vote. Therefore, internally displaced persons have not yet been able to take part in municipal elections. And now our lands have been liberated from occupation, there is a return to a certain extent. However, the presence of a return process does not mean that these people can immediately participate in municipal elections. The legal grounds for this are not provided. In order for a citizen to participate in municipal elections, there must be a municipality on the territory of his residence.  And municipalities were not organized in the occupied territories for objective reasons. Since, unlike other territories, no land reform was carried out in the occupation zone, the territories and lands of municipalities were also not defined. Therefore, in the territories that were in the zone of occupation, it is necessary first of all to carry out land reform, to determine the lands and territories of municipalities. Only after this issue is resolved by law, our citizens who have returned to their homeland will be able to participate in municipal elections.

Question: The Karabakh problem has already been solved. Do you think democracy can come to Azerbaijan together with these elections? What steps should be taken to conduct democratic, transparent and fair elections?

Answer: Undoubtedly, the Karabakh problem was one of the factors influencing the development of democracy in the country. Of course, there were also a lot of manipulations of this factor. But it would be wrong to explain the problem only with this. Practice shows that the main and determining factor in the formation and development of democracy is the willingness and commitment of society to democracy. Currently, in our practice, although society has to some extent realized the importance and superiority of democracy, it does not demonstrate adequate behavior to achieve it. This in itself is associated with many serious reasons, and in some cases it is impossible to condemn society. It would also be wrong to expect special results from a society that has not seen from its own experience and which is regularly under the influence of counter-propaganda.

Society is aware that democracy came from the West, and in conditions when the states of the region are under the influence of strong anti-Western propaganda causes the formation of misconceptions about democracy. And although time and circumstances are not yet in favor of democracy, the main task is to prepare society for it.