shutterstock.com
As it is known, the countries of the African continent, which suffered the most from all global crises in the world, also faced serious difficulties during the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war before the end of the pandemic, the biggest blow again fell on the population of African countries. The problem in the export of grain and other agricultural products and fertilizers from Ukraine has put the countries of the continent in a difficult situation. On the other hand, the crisis of power in some African countries, the internal military-political conflict led to an increase in the competition of the world's superpowers to secure their interests here. In this way, the United States of America (USA), the Russian Federation (RF), and the People's Republic of China (PRC) each added new ones to their historical interests on the continent.
However, after the collapse of the USSR, official Moscow, which tempted the African countries that were freed from colonialism and faced with economic difficulties to join the socialist front, did not pursue such a serious interest in this continent for a long time. In the 21st century, after revolutions such as the "Arab Spring" created a power crisis in North African countries, the "Black Continent" began to be of military and commercial interest to Russia. Even the special paramilitary organization "Wagner Group" of Yevgeny Prigozhin, close friend of Russian President Putin, has become the support of some military-political regimes in African countries. But in August of this year, Yevgeny Prigozhin and the influential commander of the Wagnerites, Dmitri Utkin, died in a plane crash just after returning from Africa.
Can Russia regain its influence in Africa without Prigozhin and Utkin?
As for the activities of "Wagner" in Africa, this paramilitary organization was once accused of various commercial and military relations with Sudan. Since 2017, international sources have been reporting that the Wagners have been involved in various activities, including training Sudanese soldiers and helping security forces quell protests in the country. In 2020, the "Wagner" propaganda film showed Sudan as one of the countries where Russian mercenaries operate. In July 2022, a video was released showing "Wagner" mercenaries conducting landing exercises for the Sudanese forces. Finally, Samuel Ramani, the author of the book about Russia's activities in Africa, wrote that the "Wagner" group participated in propaganda campaigns to help Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir remain in power.
It should be recalled that in 2017, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir signed a number of agreements with Russia during his visit to Moscow. These included an agreement to establish a Russian naval base at Port Sudan on the Red Sea, as well as gold mining contracts between Russia's “M Invest” and Sudan's Ministry of Mineral Resources. However, US authorities claimed that “M Invest” and its subsidiary Meroe Gold in Sudan were working for the financing and operation of the Wagner Group. According to an investigation by CNN, the gold was transported by land from that country to the Central African Republic (CAR), where Wagner operates, but the export was not recorded in Sudan's official trade data. According to a report in the Daily Telegraph last year, significant amounts of gold were smuggled through military airfields.
In addition, there is widespread information in the international media that "Wagner" fighters have been in the Central African Republic for several years, protecting the country's diamond mines, as well as many facilities in Libya and Mali. According to a 2021 BBC investigation, there is evidence that "Wagner" was involved in the civil war in Libya. In Mali, the government has never officially acknowledged the group's existence, but has used the Wagner to help fight opposition militants. "Human Rights Watch" (HRW) has accused Russian mercenaries of torture and murder both in CAR and Mali. It should also be noted that the main bases of "Wagner" on the African continent are in CAR, Burkina-Faso, Mali and Niger, where the coup took place in July of this year.
It seems that "Wagner" has exercised control over important areas in several countries of the continent, and the removal of its leaders will create a serious gap in terms of its relations with local leaders and military dictators there. It may even lead to the cessation of Russian activities in Africa, as well as chaos. It seems impossible for Russia to restore influence in Africa without Prigozhin and Utkin.
Taking advantage of the Gap, official Beijing is on the verge of serious success.
Due to the temporary chaos in the current situation, the People's Republic of China (PRC), which considers Africa as an important region in terms of national interests, will gain considerable power, and the Russians will not be able to change the new status quo. It should also be noted that in the competition with the United States, official Beijing intends to further strengthen relations with African countries in all areas. So, although the United States has military bases and sphere of influence in Africa, it is clear that the official Washington is not very interested in stopping the expansion of Russia and China in this continent. Official Beijing is on the verge of serious success, taking advantage of the Gap created in Africa, where the Russian Federation is unable to operate at full strength due to the war in Ukraine.
Increasing resistance to the West in Africa, especially against France, can have a favorable effect to easy movement in these regions. In other words, France is leaving Africa because of its decisions, its priorities and the situation in some countries. Against the backdrop of increasing protests against France, other European countries will not intervene in Africa.
For the sake of "unbeatable global power": China joins the fight this time from Africa
At this juncture, it is a priority for China to move quickly to strengthen its presence on the continent and gain a wider influence. It is no coincidence that President Xi Jinping held important meetings with the leaders of African countries during the BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg (CAR) in August 2023.
In general, for 30 years, the Government of the PRC has spent a lot of energy on cooperation with African countries in all fields. Beijing is undertaking a number of other cultural, economic and military initiatives to win African countries over to its side. China is currently Africa's largest trading partner and creditor. According to information in the international media, about 10,000 Chinese companies operate on the continent. It is estimated that at least 1 million expatriates from China live in Africa, and tens of thousands of Africans study in China each year on scholarships from the Chinese government.
China also attaches great importance to the creation of logistics opportunities on the continent. Because most of the African countries do not have the modern infrastructure that allows for wider economic cooperation. China is primarily expanding port infrastructure, building new railways and highways. The most important of them is the port of Djibouti, which is of great strategic importance for China due to its location in the Gulf of Aden. China, which built its first military base in Djibouti in 2017, gained control over the Bab al-Mandeb strait, through which the main routes of global sea trade pass. China is also interested in expanding agricultural cooperation with African countries. Today, there are more than 200 Chinese companies involved in agriculture in Africa.
PRC imports coal, lithium, phosphate, copper, cobalt, gold, iron ore, cocoa, etc. from Africa and, in turn, imports back finished products. Chinese enterprises in Africa now dominate the production or processing of many essential basic minerals, such as cobalt, lithium and manganese. In the first half of 2023, China's mining investment increased by more than 100 percent compared to the same period last year. The financing of mining operations by Chinese state-backed banks also drives the strategy forward. It is estimated that they control about 12 percent of Zambia's mining output, 40 percent of Guinea's, and all of the Republic of Congo as well as Eritrea.
As you can see, the competition of global powers in Africa is entering a new stage. As for why China, the world's second-largest economy, wants to gain a dominant position in Africa, it is enough to recall that the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) aims to establish China's reputation as an "invincible global power". As is well known, China is losing the economic competition with the United States on a global scale, especially in the Euro-Atlantic region. Expanding cooperation in all areas in Africa, gaining a dominant position in local arms markets, and finally controlling natural resources will give official Beijing a chance to compete with the United States in the long run. Considering the above, it can be argued that an irreplaceable opportunity has arisen for China to win the current competition and gain a dominant position in Africa.
Bibliography
https://jstribune.com/meservey-what-china-wants-in-africa/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/world/asia/china-africa-brics-us.html
https://interpret.csis.org/chinese-assessments-of-sino-african-relations/
https://www.isap.center/analytics/130
https://www.ng.ru/world/2023-08-29/6_8812_niger.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65328165
Great East
-
The reason behind the 47th President of the United States declaring, “Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the sole winner in Syria and a strong leader. Erdoğan is a smart man,” lies not only in the present-day developments in Syria but also in events that unfolded six years ago. Indeed, it was Donald Trump who, in June and July of 2018, sent a series of tweets that destabilized Turkey’s economy in response to Turkey’s refusal to release an American citizen. By September of that same year, however, Trump supported Turkey’s role in backing jihadist forces that settled in Idlib and established an administrative structure there.
-
As the conflict in Syria enters a new chapter, Turkey has emerged as the dominant player on the ground, wielding military and intelligence operations to shape outcomes in its favor. However, Ankara now faces a pivotal moment: Can it sustain its strong role in Syria amid growing economic strain, geopolitical complexities, and the uncertain future of the Syrian state?
-
In a world that often measures revolutions by their ability to disrupt, Syria’s journey, which began with the Arab Spring of 2011, represents a chronicle of shifting ideologies, geopolitical maneuvers, and relentless human loss.
-
I am once again flipping through the 2015 book "Syria. When you fail, resist" by my esteemed friend Fehim Taştekin, one of the best journalists who knows the Middle East.
Leave a review