Russia's Population Decline Not Offset by Migration Growth

According to the latest data from Rosstat, published in the report "The Socio-Economic Situation in Russia", the natural population decline in the country for January-October 2024 amounted to 495,800 people. The regions with the highest absolute figures for natural population decline were Moscow Region (-21,171), Rostov Region (-19,719), Nizhny Novgorod Region (-19,666), Sverdlovsk Region (-17,237), Samara Region (-17,216), Kemerovo Region (-16,539), and Krasnodar Krai (-18,280). In Saratov Region, the natural population decline reached 15,936 people, surpassing the figure for the same period in 2023 (13,621).

Mortality exceeding birth rates was observed in all regions of the Volga Federal District. Nationwide, migration growth for January-October totaled 333,910 people, partially offsetting the natural population decline.

These demographic trends are raising serious concerns. In the first half of 2024, Russia recorded the lowest birth rate since 1999: during this period, 599,600 children were born, 16,000 fewer than in the same period in 2023. In June, the number of newborns fell below 100,000 for the first time. At the same time, mortality rates increased, with 325,100 deaths registered in the first six months of 2024, 49,000 more than in the previous year.

The Kremlin acknowledges the severity of the demographic situation. Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov described the low birth rates as a "catastrophe for the country." Nina Ostanina, head of the State Duma Committee for Family Protection, proposed implementing a "special demographic operation" modeled on military campaigns to address the crisis.

The decline in birth rates and rise in mortality represent significant challenges for Russia, particularly amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its related socio-economic repercussions.

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