Azerbaijan-Armenia: U.S. Intel Predicts 'Tense Relations' In Absence Of Peace Treaty

Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan "are likely to remain tense," this year,  the U.S. Intelligence community predicts, TURAN's Washington correspondent reports.

But Azerbaijan’s retaking of Nagorno-Karabakh "has reduced volatility, and a military confrontation probably would be limited in duration and intensity,"  according to the U.S. intelligence community's annual Worldwide Threat Assessment, which were presented to Congress on Monday by the leaders of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the CIA, FBI, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency.

The report went on to add, "Nevertheless, the lack of a bilateral peace treaty, the proximity of their military forces, the lack of a cease-fire enforcement mechanism, and Azerbaijan’s readiness to use calibrated military pressure to advance its goals in talks with Armenia will remain. Moreover, the transition of N-K governance from ethnic Armenians to Azerbaijanis and Azerbaijan’s demand for access to a land corridor linking Azerbaijan to its exclave will elevate the risk of armed confrontation."

The report reminds that in September last year, Azerbaijan initiated a military operation that led to the defeat of the N-K Self Defense Force and the surrender of the de facto Nagorno-Karabakh authorities.

"The rapid exodus of most of the region’s ethnic Armenian population and the planned self-dissolution of the government allowed Baku to advance plans to integrate the region with Azerbaijan, effectively removing this longstanding issue from the bilateral peace agenda," reads the report.

The new report allows the U.S. lawmakers to raise questions and concerns over assessments and priorities on work that is largely conducted in secret. As expected, the intel chiefs were asked on Monday about the threat from Russia, China, the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as how artificial intelligence could influence the U.S 2024 election.

CIA Director Bill Burns, who recently returned from a trip to Ukraine, said U.S. support has the "very real possibility" of cementing strategic success for Ukraine and a strategic loss of relative importance for Russia.