European Union Unlikely to Cut Off Azerbaijani Gas Supply 

Baku/07.10.23/Turan:  Arif Shahmarli (Mamedov), a former Azerbaijani diplomat residing in Brussels, has cast doubt on the possibility of European Union countries following through with the sanctions proposed by the European Parliament against Azerbaijan. The parliament's call for sanctions stems from concern about the results of Azerbaijan's local special operation in Karabakh.

On October 6th, Roberta Metsola, the President of the European Parliament, made a statement to journalists on the sidelines of an informal EU summit in Granada, suggesting that the EU should cease gas purchases from Azerbaijan due to the country being perceived as an unreliable partner following the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. On October 5th, the European Parliament adopted a resolution proposing sanctions against Azerbaijan for its actions in Nagorno-Karabakh and recommending a pause in political dialogue and energy cooperation with Baku.

In a conversation with Turan News Agency, Arif Shahmarli expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of such a resolution. He emphasized that while the European Parliament can express its opinion and position, the actual implementation of sanctions is the prerogative of the executive authorities in each individual European country.

"European Parliament can voice its opinion and position, but for this opinion to be implemented, there must be a consensus among all countries, as was the case with the decision to stop buying Russian gas due to the conflict in Ukraine. In the case of Azerbaijan, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban does not support the European Parliament's call for targeted sanctions against Azerbaijani government officials. Bulgaria, facing the absence of gas supplies from Russia, is also unlikely to turn away from Azerbaijani gas just before winter. Azerbaijani gas is essential for Balkan countries," Shahmarli explained.

He pointed out that the EU had previously exerted pressure on Hungary, initially reluctant to join anti-Russian sanctions. The EU threatened to halt projects in Hungary, prompting Prime Minister Viktor Orban to acquiesce.

Arif Shahmarli considers it more likely that the EU will impose targeted sanctions on top Azerbaijani officials, halt negotiations with Baku regarding cooperation with the EU, and possibly revoke the favorable visa regime with Azerbaijan. However, he cautioned that even these measures would face significant hurdles and delays.

"It is worth remembering how difficult and time-consuming it was to reach a consensus on sanctions against Russian officials. Europeans will initially assess the potential harm to both the EU and Azerbaijan as a state and people. Europe will consider that Azerbaijan may redirect its gas to Turkey or Israel, ultimately affecting European consumers. It is possible that a decision could be made to impose a cap on the maximum price of Azerbaijani gas, but even that decision would be challenging and slow," Shahmarli noted.

He singled out France and Germany as countries with the strongest economies in the EU, which wield significant influence in decision-making processes in Europe.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban commented on the recent European Parliament resolution on Azerbaijan, which called for a reevaluation of relations with Baku and the consideration of targeted sanctions. "Azerbaijan is a strategically important country. Without Azerbaijan, we will not achieve energy independence... If we want to get rid of energy dependence on Russia, we need Azerbaijan; this is very obvious. It is a strategically important country," Orban stated, according to Politico.

The publication also cited comments from Nathalie Loiseau, the Chair of the European Parliament's Subcommittee on Defense, who, along with 60 MEPs, sent a request to the EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, inquiring about the sanctions to be imposed on Azerbaijan in light of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Loiseau noted that the real question lies at the level of EU member states, mentioning that Hungary is closely aligned with Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, while Austria, Bulgaria, and Romania depend on Azerbaijani gas. She also mentioned countries like Italy, which hopes to obtain a license for its oil company, and compared the situation to the EU's willingness to support Ukraine at the expense of its economic ties with Moscow.

While European politicians often express support for Armenia in their statements, Azerbaijan's influence on the region is far more substantial, given Brussels' view of Caspian gas as an alternative to Russian supplies. Despite the cautious expressions of concern from some European politicians, the economic crisis compels the EU to choose between its values and the benefits of cooperation with Baku.

According to the newspaper, in 2022, the European Union imported approximately 3.4% of its total Azerbaijani gas supply through the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline.

This message reinforces the statement made by French President Emmanuel Macron, a prominent critic of Azerbaijan, who, in an interview with Interfax, argued that imposing sanctions on Azerbaijan would be counterproductive. "I don't think now is the time for sanctions because they will be counterproductive. They will not best protect Armenia's territory and population," he said.