Experts are clarifying the toponymic intricacies of Lavrov's policy

Answering the question about the location of the Turkish peacekeepers, whose arrival is expected for the final settlement of the Karabakh problem, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke as if Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh were different states.

“No peacekeeping units of the Turkish Republic will be sent to Nagorno-Karabakh. The boundaries of mobility of Turkish observers are limited by those geographic coordinates that will be determined for the location, placement of the created Russian-Turkish monitoring center on the territory of Azerbaijan, in the part of the territory that is not close to Karabakh and which will be additionally agreed upon,” he said on November 12.

Azerbaijanis are also alarmed by some reports from the zone of recent fighting and Armenia. In Yerevan, Prime Minister N. Pashinyan called on the people to unite to return the lost Azerbaijani territories, the head of the illegal regime in Karabakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, who ordered the bombing of Ganja, intends to continue commanding in the Russian-controlled territory. On the road towards Karabakh, the Armenians filmed the Russian Grad combat systems heading for Azerbaijan, which were not provided for the implementation of the Russian peacekeeping mission.

Do the strange words of Lavrov mean Russia's intention to tear away Karabakh from Azerbaijan, covering up this operation with "peacekeeping"? Is this why Moscow opposes the presence of the Turkish military in Karabakh? Turan addressed these questions orally and in writing to the press service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, and no response was received over the past day.

We asked the deputy of the Milli Mejlis, political scientist Rasim Musabekov to explain what was happening.

He believes that the there is no other expectations regarding the behavior of Russians in Karabakh because of the entire experience of Russian peacekeeping in Georgia and Moldova. Naive politicians might think that Russian peacekeeping would be problem-free.  The decision was based on the objective situation. Any decision contains opportunities, results, and risks. It was very important for us that the Armenian Armed Forces were withdrawn from Azerbaijan. This could have been done through heavy losses of Azerbaijani servicemen and an image blow to our country, since Armenia and its foreign patrons would have exposed us as the culprits of ethnic cleansing.

We needed a compromise for the withdrawal of 20,000 armed Armenians from Karabakh (N. Pashinyan's figures). There they still had heavy military equipment, which also had to be withdrawn somehow. The Turkish monitoring center is needed in order to control Russia's execution of the withdrawal of Armenian manpower and equipment, so that the Armenians do not hide tanks, mortars and other means of war in secret shelters, the deputy continued.

“We have won; the people unambiguously accepted what happened, which we saw from the mass celebrations in the Azerbaijani streets. The population of Russia does not believe. The fact that we will have to closely monitor and limit Russian actions is beyond doubt. Our partnership with Turkey on this issue, monitoring and peacekeeping of this country will balance and limit the unilateral interpretation of all events, which is usual for Russia, in its own interests.

Lavrov, in his role, creates problems that will then imitate their solutions with the skill of a magician. Russia has signed an agreement on Karabakh behind the back of the OSCE Minsk Group. Further, realizing that one would not be able to act further, she invited the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs to Moscow to exert pressure on Azerbaijan in order to resolve the issue of the status of Karabakh. For this, the Minsk Group was created.

Lavrov will continue to issue ambiguous statements. We have learned to fend off such actions of Lavrov and say that maybe the OSCE Minsk Group is not closing, but the triumvirate, and the co-chairmanship of this structure has not justified itself, and should stop. We are able to inform independently inform the Minsk Group about the events in Karabakh, everything related to the integration of Armenians into Azerbaijani society.

Lavrov is trying to define the subjectivity of Nagorno-Karabakh in some form. This was to be expected. This is the plane of Azerbaijan's diplomatic actions and we have long learned to fend off them. So far, Lavrov's words are just words,” R. Musabekov concluded.

Political scientist Ilgar Velizade told Turan that for Russia, the United States, France, the terms Lavrov said remain out of inertia. No special political meaning should be put into the concept of "Nagorno-Karabakh". In the process of joint work, the terminological issue, the semantic load of terms will be agreed. It is impossible to talk about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh now; Lavrov said that the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is not the agenda of today. Under the influence of realities, the attitude to the terms will change, since official Baku has declared the impossibility of returning to the previous status quo in Karabakh, Velizade said.

“Consultations with the Turkish side continue. When Lavrov spoke about the deployment of the Turkish troops, Shoigu and Hulusi Akar were negotiating in Ankara. They will agree on controversial issues, the agreements will be confirmed by the presidents, and then Lavrov's rhetoric will change. It is better to pay attention not to statements, but to the actions of mediators,” Velizade said.

He invites the Azerbaijani public not to rush with suspicions. People use "raw" information, watch footage of unofficial network channels. It is wrong to draw conclusions from fragmentary and questionable messages posted on the networks. It is more correct to draw conclusions about decisions and their implementation, to wait for the result, since conclusions based on intermediate statements and actions can be refuted by subsequent events.

The main thing to know is that the events in Karabakh are being implemented by Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey. We, the three countries, are active performers. Armenia, as the losing side, is assigned the role of a passive participant, executor of the well-known agreement. Everything depends on how Russia, Azerbaijan and Turkey will come to an agreement,” explained I. Velizade.

Researcher of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Karavayev also answered Turan's questions. Explaining the definition of Lavrov "Nagorno-Karabakh", the expert said that this toponym could not be determined outside the documents signed by the parties before and in the future. Including the Interdepartmental Center for Humanitarian Response signed on November 13 by V. Putin to assist in resolving humanitarian issues and restoring civilian infrastructure in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK).

“I hope that the documents will not mention “NKR”. I do not think one should look for malice in Lavrov's statements. Nobody is going to separate Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan. The Center approved by V. Putin will work only with Azerbaijan and regional and international donors. Accordingly, the Center will operate through Azerbaijani structures and transport hubs, so there is no need to worry thinking that works in Karabakh will be taken out of Azerbaijani control,” Karavaev said.

Putin and Erdogan have reached a fundamental understanding on the mission of humanitarian cooperation. Aliyev approves this agreement. It is very difficult to sign the document right away. Russia and Turkey have been agreeing on cooperation in Syria for several months. Therefore, it is not surprising that inconsistencies and absurdities are leaking into print now. You must have patience and wait for the result. I think it won't take long,” he said.

“The only thing is that we do not have an understanding of what the Turkish Monitoring Center will be like. Its composition is unknown, whether it will have army forces or only the Turkish police. The location of these forces is discussed. Based on the practice of patrolling in Syria, it is clear that the Russians and the Turks will be in different places. As I understand it, the Russians will be inside the Karabakh perimeter, and the Turks - outside the perimeter. Such a scheme will allow monitoring and avoiding serious incidents. Azerbaijan has doubly secured itself. The structure being created is more numerous than the monitoring group of the OSCE Minsk Group, and it is fully controlled by Azerbaijan.

Reading the comments of Azerbaijanis, I see the concern of citizens. It is necessary to read carefully the interviews of I. Aliyev that he has given for several years, and especially during the months of the war. The citizens, traumatized by the war, do not understand the president's words that Armenians will remain in Nagorno-Karabakh; the doors are not closed for them. Official Baku has always clearly distinguished between war criminals and civilians. Innocent people will not be deprived of their rights to live in Karabakh. Armenia is trying to slow down the process of returning Armenians to Karabakh, since it is beneficial for Yerevan to show a picture of a humanitarian catastrophe, blaming the Azerbaijanis. The presence of the UN Commissariat for Refugees and other international organizations is appropriate here,” A. Karavayev concluded the interview.-0-