Snap Elections in Azerbaijan Raise Concerns About the Future of Democracy

In a tightly controlled electoral environment, Azerbaijan’s snap parliamentary elections concluded at 7 PM local time, drawing a voter turnout of just 34% by the late afternoon. The absence of a minimum turnout threshold in Azerbaijan's electoral laws means that this level of participation is sufficient to validate the results.

This election marks a significant moment in Azerbaijani history, as voting took place for the first time in the liberated territories of Karabakh. The Central Election Commission (CEC) reported the highest turnout in the Khankendi electoral district No. 122, where nearly 50% of registered voters cast their ballots by 5 PM.

Despite the government’s assertions of a smooth electoral process, allegations of widespread irregularities and violence marred the voting. Reports from opposition parties and independent observers detailed instances of ballot stuffing, "carousel" voting, and even attacks on opposition candidates, observers, and journalists. The CEC is expected to annul the results in several precincts, citing the lack of impact these areas have on the overall vote count—a familiar pattern in the country’s election history.

The media played a crucial role in highlighting these discrepancies. However, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Media Development Agency swiftly countered by accusing journalists of participating in the elections with falsified credentials.

Support for the election's integrity came predominantly from international observers aligned with Azerbaijan’s allies. Russian and Belarusian observers gave their full endorsement, while Qurban Hussein, a member of the British House of Lords, stated that the elections in Azerbaijan were conducted in a manner similar to those in the UK. The views of European organizations observing the elections were not available at the time of reporting.

Preliminary results are expected on Monday, though some candidates have already shared their outcomes on social media. Vafa Naghi, a candidate from the Neftchala district, claimed victory over Tanzila Rustamkhanli, who was reportedly backed by the district’s executive authorities. An exit poll conducted by AzTV indicated a strong showing for candidates from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party.

The opposition, however, has been quick to condemn the process. Ali Karimli, leader of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), which boycotted the election, declared on Facebook that President Ilham Aliyev had "completely destroyed the institution of elections." He argued that true political competition is nonexistent in Azerbaijan, where only those trusted by the president can be elected.

"In reality, there is only one voter in the country. Only those whom he trusts can be 'elected.' The number of political prisoners in Azerbaijan is breaking records, the institution of election observers has been destroyed, and there is still an unofficial ban on holding rallies," Karimli wrote.

Isa Gambar, chairman of the Musavat Party, echoed these concerns in an interview with the Voice of America, detailing the violence against his party’s observers and the pervasive use of traditional electoral fraud tactics. "Our goal in participating in the elections was to oppose the government's policy of destroying elections and to expose the fraud. Unfortunately, we did not observe any particular voter activity."

Former Musavat chairman Arif Hajili, in an interview with the Turan news agency, reflected on the public’s disillusionment with the electoral process. He remarked that the official turnout figures were likely inflated and that the elections represented another missed opportunity to restore democracy and civil peace in Azerbaijan.

Hajili further criticized the likely composition of the new Milli Majlis, predicting that it would be even more subservient to the executive branch than its predecessor. "The Milli Majlis will be an executive body of power, not a representative of the people defending the interests of society," he said.

On the international stage, Hajili warned that Azerbaijan's already tarnished image would suffer further as relations with democratic countries deteriorate and demands on Azerbaijan intensify. Domestically, he predicted a continuation of the government's authoritarian policies, with little hope for the release of political prisoners or an improvement in political freedoms.

The elections were held across 125 districts, with 6,478 polling stations, 1,000 of which were equipped with web cameras. More than 6.4 million citizens were eligible to vote, with over 6.5 million ballots printed. Representatives from 25 political parties participated, and the elections were monitored by 112,749 local and 598 international observers from 51 organizations and 69 countries. In total, 990 candidates vied for 125 seats in the Milli Majlis.

As Azerbaijan awaits the official results, the aftermath of the elections is likely to deepen the country's political divides and raise further questions about its democratic future.