Zelensky’s Likely Participation in COP29 Sets Stage for ‘Peace Formula’ Diplomacy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend COP29, a significant international climate summit, standing in stark contrast to other European leaders, such as Germany’s chancellor and the Dutch prime minister, who have had to cancel their visits due to domestic political turmoil. Despite leading a nation embroiled in a protracted and bloody war, Zelensky has prioritized this global forum, which offers a platform for advancing his signature diplomatic initiative: the "Peace Formula."

The invitation for Zelensky to attend COP29 came directly from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in April 2024, underscoring Azerbaijan’s strategic decision to include Ukraine in its climate-focused agenda. For Zelensky, this summit is more than a climate conference; it is an opportunity to gather international support for a framework his administration has meticulously crafted since the summer of 2022.

Zelensky’s "Peace Formula" was first conceived during an intense summer of drafting in 2022. By autumn, Ukraine presented the framework to the international community, culminating in a formal proposal at the inaugural "Global Peace Summit" held in Switzerland on June 15-16, 2023. The initiative aims to bring an end to hostilities, restore international norms, and address the far-reaching impacts of the conflict on global stability.

The "Peace Formula" encompasses a comprehensive list of objectives:

• Radiation and Nuclear Safety
• Food Security
• Energy Security
• Release of Prisoners and Deportees
• Adherence to the UN Charter and Territorial Integrity
• Withdrawal of Russian Troops and Cessation of Hostilities
• Restoration of Justice
• Counteracting Ecocide
• Preventing Escalation
• Formal End of the War.

Ukraine has sought to involve as many nations as possible in supporting the "Peace Formula." Recognizing that different countries have varying capacities and interests, Zelensky’s administration has structured the initiative to allow for flexible participation. Nations can choose which elements of the plan align with their strategic priorities and resources, creating a coalition of support tailored to the complexities of global diplomacy.

Azerbaijan’s hosting of COP29 is seen as an opportune moment for Kyiv to engage Baku in environmental and energy aspects of the formula. Ukrainian officials have emphasized their desire for Azerbaijan’s involvement, particularly in ecological restoration and securing energy supplies. This comes after Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov attended the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Germany on June 11. However, Azerbaijan unexpectedly withdrew from participating in the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, raising questions about the depth of its commitment to Ukraine’s broader diplomatic agenda.

As COP29 approaches, the spotlight will be on Zelensky’s participation and the potential discussions that could arise from his attendance. The climate summit provides a neutral setting for the Ukrainian leader to promote his vision for peace while highlighting the interconnected challenges of conflict, environmental degradation, and global energy security.