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CIS Summit: Challenges and Threats will Grow
The traditional New Year's Eve summit of the CIS heads of state, which was held on December 26-27 in St. Petersburg at a difficult time - in 2022, the largest military conflict broke out in the former USSR after the end of the World War II. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has heightened doubts about the prospects for the future of the CIS, and its mobilizing function is declining year after year.
The owner of the house, Russian President Vladimir Putin, acknowledged the existence of threats to the Eurasian space, urging those present to join forces to ensure the security of the Commonwealth.
“The key area of cooperation between the CIS countries is the maintenance of security and stability in our common Eurasian region. Unfortunately, the challenges and threats in this area, primarily from outside, are only growing every year,” Putin said.
In fact, the CIS has been going through hard times since its creation in 1991. Earlier, Georgia and Ukraine left the organization. The President of Moldova once again, ignoring, misses the summit. The conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia and between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2022 escalated into regular military clashes. And the next CIS summit turned out to be unable to resolve their relations. The leaders dispersed without accepting any peacekeeping documents.
Putin failed to bring together the positions of the conflicting parties in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The presidents of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Rahmon and Japarov, never shook hands, and Aliyev and Pashinyan, at Putin's initiative, held a formal exchange of views on the sidelines of the summit, without resolving the Lachin crisis.
The CIS as an institution of the commonwealth of the former Soviet republics, designed to ensure stability and prosperity in the post-Soviet space, is increasingly acquiring a phantasmagoric shape because of a series of aggressions by the main person involved in the organization - Russia against its partners in the face of Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. And threats against other countries of the commonwealth from Moscow do not stop, periodically reminding of themselves.
Putin did not offer the summit to discuss and adopt any significant documents and decisions in the field of security. And this may indicate the unwillingness, first, of Moscow to burden itself with certain obligations to partners and not tie its hands, which can be untied in relation to any of the leaders who were at the meeting.
Russia's desire to maintain the same formal and beneficial level of relations next year is evidenced by the fact that 2023 is declared the year of the Russian language in the CIS countries. It is difficult to imagine how effectively this humanitarian issue of the security problem in the CIS can be resolved. So, the problems of challenges and threats that Putin spoke about in his opening speech, with this approach, should have a growing trend.
Post-Soviet region
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The September 17, 2024 summit in Astana between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the heads of Central Asian states marks a critical moment in regional diplomacy. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the importance of this evolving dialogue, highlighting its strategic significance in a world grappling with geopolitical instability. As the two regions deepen their ties, this summit reflected growing attention to economic diversification, energy security, and technological cooperation.
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Kazakhstan, situated at a complex geopolitical crossroads in Central Asia, is striving to maintain a delicate balance as Western powers tighten sanctions against Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. While adhering to sanctions remains part of the national strategy, the country faces significant challenges in maintaining this precarious position without compromising its own economic interests or regional stability.
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The outcome of the 44-day Second Karabakh War in 2020 has also influenced the geography of foreign direct investments directed at Azerbaijan's economy. According to recent statistics, after the Second Karabakh War, investments from the Russian Federation, Turkey, and the People's Republic of China into Azerbaijan's economy, particularly in the liberated territories, began to grow. However, the attraction of Western-origin foreign investments continues to face significant hurdles. The Azerbaijani government's classification of states as friendly or unfriendly is a factor, but traditional problems such as monopolies dominating the national economy, as well as the lack of an independent judiciary and legal system, are ongoing challenges that need to be addresed.
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The legal basis of cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan consists of more than 170 interstate, intergovernmental, and interdepartmental agreements, including nearly 50 documents in the economic sector. Key agreements include the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Security signed on July 3, 1997, the Declaration on Friendship and Strategic Partnership on July 3, 2008, the Declaration[1] on Allied Cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan on February 22, 2022, and the "Roadmap for the Development of Cooperation in Key Areas for 2024-2026," [2] signed on January 22, 2024.
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