Zelensky's Victory Plan: Strategic Determination or an Escalation Trap?

In an emotionally charged speech to the Verkhovna Rada on October 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his "Victory Plan"—a bold and multi-layered roadmap to end the war with Russia. The plan, consisting of five public points and three secret appendices, combines geopolitical, military, and economic strategies, portraying Ukraine's determination to regain control and force Russia into diplomacy. However, behind the rhetoric of strength and resolve lie important questions: Is this truly a plan for peace, or does it risk escalating an already volatile conflict?

The Essence of the Victory Plan

1/Geopolitics (Invitation to NATO). Zelensky emphasizes that an official invitation for Ukraine to join NATO is crucial. He acknowledges that full membership is a future prospect, but the invitation itself is viewed as a key geopolitical defeat for Russia.

2.Strengthening Defense. This focuses on enhancing Ukraine's military capabilities. Zelensky stressed the need for advanced weapons, intelligence sharing, and further operations to dismantle Russia’s offensive capabilities.

3.Deterrence.Another military-centric point, with secret details shared only with key Western allies, including the United States and European powers. The plan outlines a deterrence strategy to weaken Russia’s military, pushing it toward diplomacy or military collapse.

4.Strategic Economic Potential. Ukraine seeks agreements with key partners, including the EU and the U.S., to secure vital resources, enforce sanctions, and cut Russia off from global trade and investment.

5.Post-War Security: Zelensky envisions Ukraine playing a key role in European security, suggesting that Ukrainian forces could replace U.S. troops in some parts of Europe after the war.

Timing: Calculation or Desperation?

Zelensky's timing for the plan is not coincidental. The war has been dragging on for almost three years now, and both Ukraine and its Western supporters face growing pressure to demonstrate a clear path to victory. By unveiling the plan now, Zelensky sends a signal to his domestic audience that a concrete strategy to end the war exists. The plan’s release also aims to reassure Western allies that Ukraine remains committed to defeating Russia, despite ongoing battlefield challenges.

But why now? Some analysts suggest that Zelensky is acutely aware of the growing risk of “Ukraine fatigue” among Western nations. Public opinion in some European countries is beginning to waver as the economic costs of supporting Ukraine rise. By presenting a vision of victory within the next year, Zelensky aims to solidify support and ensure the continued flow of the military and economic assistance Ukraine desperately needs.

Domestic Reaction: Hope Mixed with Skepticism

In Ukraine, the plan has been met with cautious optimism. For a war-weary population, the promise of victory is an emotional lifeline. Zelensky’s message that the war could end as early as next year, if the plan is implemented, resonates deeply. However, there are voices of skepticism. “But so far, it’s more of a set of slogans. We’ve heard very little in terms of specifics and mechanisms for implementing this plan,” noted UNIAN commentator Ihor Reyterovych. Critics have expressed concerns about the feasibility of some aspects of the plan, particularly its military components. The secret appendices, reportedly detailing potential strikes deep into Russian territory, have raised doubts about whether such actions could provoke a harsher response from Moscow.

Western Support: A Balancing Act

In the West, the reaction has been cautious but supportive. “We’ve made it clear that we support Ukraine’s pursuit of a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace to end this unnecessary war,” stated the U.S. Embassy in Moscow. Zelensky's plan aligns with Western goals of maintaining pressure on Russia, and the focus on strengthening military power and economic sanctions is likely to receive broad backing from NATO and the EU. However, the secret military details shared with key allies, including the U.S. and European powers, present a delicate issue. The possibility of Ukraine striking Russian territory could lead to an escalation that NATO members have long sought to avoid. As much as Western leaders want Ukraine to win, there is a tangible concern that the conflict could escalate into a larger war with potentially catastrophic consequences.

The critical question for Ukraine’s Western partners is how much of Zelensky's plan they are willing to support, particularly regarding the secret military strategies. The U.S. and its European allies have been unwavering in their support for Ukraine so far, but any steps that could be seen as expanding the scope of the conflict might test this resolve. Washington has made it clear that while it supports Ukraine’s right to self-defense, it fears actions that could provoke a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. Much will depend on Zelensky's ability to convince his Western partners that the risks associated with the plan’s military elements are outweighed by the potential benefits.

Russia’s Predictable but Dangerous Response

Unsurprisingly, Moscow dismissed Zelensky's plan as a provocation. “This is, of course, not a plan; it’s a set of incoherent slogans, it’s the bloody foam at the mouth of a neo-Nazi murderer,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. The Kremlin has portrayed this proposal as an attempt to prolong the war with Western backing, rather than a legitimate path to peace. Russian officials, particularly in light of the plan’s secret military components, view the potential for expanded Ukrainian operations as a threat. While this response is predictable, it is also dangerous. The Russian government has repeatedly warned that any attempt by Ukraine to strike Russian territory could lead to severe retaliation, heightening fears of further conflict escalation.

Escalation or Path to Peace?

At its core, Zelensky's "Victory Plan" presents two very different possibilities. On the one hand, if the plan succeeds in forcing Russia to negotiate, it could mark a decisive turning point in the war, potentially leading to a lasting peace. On the other hand, the plan’s military ambitions, especially its potential for strikes on Russian territory, could lead to an escalation of the conflict. Moscow has shown no willingness to negotiate under pressure, and further military actions may only strengthen its resolve.

The success of the plan ultimately depends on several factors: the level of Western support, the resilience of Ukraine’s armed forces, and Russia’s response to increased military pressure. If Ukraine can maintain its momentum and continue to receive strong Western backing, Zelensky’s plan could indeed pave the way to victory. But if the military elements of the plan provoke a harsh Russian retaliation, it could lead to a prolonged and even more destructive phase of the conflict.