Vladimir Putin and Nikol Pashinyan
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- Tofig bey, Azerbaijan has been conducting counter-offensive operations for several days to liberate the occupied territories, and it is stated at the highest level that these operations will continue until the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the territories. I wonder if it is possible to return to the negotiating table after that?
- First, how should the negotiation process be? One is an individual negotiation process. That is, the territory has been occupied, and in return, some negotiations are taking place on the basis of the situation. The other is a normal negotiation process in accordance with international law. The President spoke openly about the possible talks at this stage. I think this is our position. This opinion was expressed by the President for the first time at a meeting with local media before the resumption of hostilities. "There is no negotiation process anymore. Armenia has rejected projects developed for years, and Pashinyan has stated that Artsakh is Armenia. After that, the negotiation process has been disrupted," he said. The President added that "at this stage, negotiations can be held on a document drawn up on a schedule". What does the schedule mean? In fact, the activity of the OSCE Minsk Group began in 1992 with the preparation of this document. Special meetings were held in June 1992. I myself also attended there. It was an emergency meeting after the occupation of Shusha and Lachin. The task of the Minsk Group was set concretely: To negotiate the liberation of the occupied territories and to achieve results as soon as possible. At that time, we were given a document in the form of a schedule as a project. There was a concrete logic. For example, the day of signing was called X day. After X + 5 days, troops and occupying forces would leave a region. After X + 10 days, the evacuation of the population in the area would end. Then work would begin in another occupied region. And after a while, people would start coming back there. That is, a planned schedule. I explain in a simple way to make the logic clear. Mr. President means a document based on this logic. If Armenia wants the negotiation process to be resumed, a ceasefire to be achieved, no bloodshed, no casualties on both sides, then the mediators must prepare a document in this form, and Armenia must guarantee that it will abide by the document. Then this issue may come up with political methods. In fact, this is the task of the Minsk Group. Future negotiations look like this at the initial stage. The difficult situation resulting from the occupation and military operations must be resolved so that any issues can then be resolved through negotiations.
- Even if the negotiations start, all the principles and formats that have been on the table so far will probably be invalidated. After that, if the negotiations start, will everything have to start from scratch? What do you think can be suggested as new principles?
- Armenia has officially renounced all these principles.
- Do you mean that there will be a need to return to the previous version?
- There are two ways to do this. Either the mediators offer it and get the consent of Armenia or the Azerbaijani army implements UN resolutions within its sovereign rights. That is that. This is the logic here. Very simple.
- You were the Minister of Foreign Affairs. What has been the most appropriate principle and format so far?
- You probably mean projects. These and other projects are based on some principle. The mediators submitted projects that fit both one side and the other side. That is, in the balanced form. Sometimes the balance was on the side of the Armenians, sometimes on our side. However, it cannot be said that this issue was completely on someone's side in one way or another. At this stage, we can talk about a completely different issue. First, in time, the main issue of the Minsk Group and the Minsk Conference was the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan has made its proposals in this regard. That is, Azerbaijan said that they were ready to give the highest status. Armenians did not agree with that. They said they wanted independence. After that, the mandate of the Minsk Group has been almost over. Has it been said that any issues outside the sovereignty of Azerbaijan were discussed? No, of course not. When the Armenians do not accept the compromise options, the logic I mentioned above comes to the fore.
- One of the interesting issues is that Russia did not interfere in the issue this time. What do you think is Russia's interest in not interfering in military operations this time? What is the reason for this?
- In fact, Russia does not accept the position expressed by the Armenians in these talks. If you remember, opinions were voiced at different levels, such as 7 districts, 5 districts. Armenia did not accept it. In fact, this is contrary to Russia's mediation position. Second, the statements of the Armenian Prime Minister put an end to the negotiation process. The third is other existing political reasons. Russia's withdrawal from Armenia began even before Pashinyan came to power. This is because Armenia, as a society, as a nation, has made its choice. The choice is that they have already gained what they wanted from Russia, and now they are turning to the West. This created a kind of contradiction in Armenia's policy. On the one hand, they want Russia for security, on the other hand, they want to be part of the West. Of course, this is not possible. Russia also understands this. It also knows that this is not just a matter of Pashinyan's personality. There just takes place distancing. They have made their civilian choices. Russia has no interest in supporting them in this matter. Secondly, they are well aware that regardless of the outcome of the military operation, Armenia will blame Russia and Pashinyan will blame the pro-Russian opposition. He will say that we have lost because of this, we have lost Karabakh. On this basis, it will create a turn in society to turn pro-Russian policy into pro-Western policy. Because they have no other way. In order to save their statehood, they must become part of the West demographically, economically, and politically. They must get investment and support from the West. They must develop their states so that at least they can avoid the abyss of democracy. This is the situation. Russia and Armenia are consciously moving away from each other.
- In general, how do you assess the process? How far will the situation go?
- It is now clear that the Armenian army is waging a war of the XX century, and Azerbaijan is waging a war of the XXI century. From a technological point of view, this difference is felt. Even the nature of military operations has moved away from the Soviet school. Azerbaijan is conducting an operation in accordance with NATO standards. First of all, it destroys and neutralizes the enemy's equipment, and then moves on to ground operations and cleans the area with manpower. We have seen such tactics in NATO countries. Even now, the reason for the late liberation of the territories is that they have destroyed all their firing systems and liberated the territories from occupation. We see the will. Mr. President, based on the will of the people, is determined to clear the lands of the occupiers. This is the situation and no one can interfere in this situation. We also see the tactics of Armenia. They want to expand the territory of military operations. I am sure that in the second stage, they will want military operations to be carried out along the international border. Their main attack should be expected from the direction of Nakhchivan. By doing so, they will try to get Turkey to intervene. In this and other ways, they will want to involve Russia in this issue. But there is little hope for this in all cases. Because there is a possibility of coordination between the Russian and Turkish leadership, at least in these and other issues. From this point of view, their provocation does not bear fruit. These provocations will have more serious consequences for them.
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