German political scientist: West underestimates the danger of the conflict between Baku and Yerevan

DW: Was the current escalation a surprise to you?

Stefan Meister: Perhaps yes. I do not think it was planned. It looks more like an accidental exacerbation. The military servants of the Azerbaijani armed forces, apparently, accidentally entered the territory of Armenia, and the Armenian side immediately reacted. The situation heated up: heavy military equipment was used, and although we had previously observed aggressive rhetoric from Azerbaijan, I still do not think it was a prepared operation.

 - Azerbaijan has lost a high-ranking officer, deputy defense minister. Do you expect Baku to try to avenge this loss?

- We see that one action immediately causes a response, and so - in a circle. Quite a few people have already died so far. I think that the escalation of the conflict will continue in the near future. The governments of both countries are under pressure due to various reasons: poor governance during the coronavirus pandemic, economic difficulties and none of them can afford to look weak today.

- A few days ago, in the context of the settlement of the frozen conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, the President of Azerbaijan spoke about the war. How do you assess such statements?

- This rhetoric is not new; threats to start a major conflict or war are not surprising. I would not overestimate them. What I see is a deep disappointment in Baku: after the Velvet Revolution in Armenia and the coming to power of the new leadership, together with Nikol Pashinyan, there were hopes that changes would come and a movement would begin. These hopes have ended.

There are no significant changes, the Azerbaijani side is unhappy, and President Aliyev has clearly expressed this. The escalation took place not on the border with Nagorno-Karabakh, but on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border - this is an interstate conflict that is not related to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. We are again in a familiar situation where escalation can happen very quickly. The current situation shows how dangerous this conflict really is and that both sides are ready to go far. It seems to me that this is underestimated in the European Union and in the West as a whole.

- You know that Baku received a signal of support from Turkey. Can it be regarded as Ankara's readiness to be involved in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan? Do you see a new quality in the words of the Turkish representatives?

- I would not say that. Yes, Ankara's reaction came very quickly. However, such verbal support for Azerbaijan, and criticism of Armenia, always comes from Turkey. This is a well-known scheme, so this is not a surprise, and I do not think that these words indicate Turkey's greater readiness to participate in this conflict. I rather see some disappointment on the part of Armenia because the verbal support of Russia and the CSTO has been rather weak over the past months. Moreover, Turkey immediately sided with its ally.  I don’t think that Turkey, in the light of its relations with Russia, has any interest in more participation or in the escalation of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

-  Can we say that it happened with Yerevan because the government of Pashinyan was pursuing a policy relatively independent from Moscow?

- That is the question: the Kremlin's cold reaction - such an answer? I must say that for Moscow this is, of course, an important conflict, but only one of them. I think that today the main attention is focused on the situation in Donbass and on relations with Ukraine. Perhaps, one should not expect harsh statements from Russia. Moscow still feels like an honest mediator between the parties. Nevertheless, there is a discussion in Armenia, and Pashinyan is criticized, they say, it is his fault (insufficient, from the point of view of critics, support for Yerevan by Moscow. - Ed.).  I prefer to be careful and avoid complex interpretations.

- What preconditions do you see for reducing tension in the region?

- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov made statements and held talks with both sides. Russia plays a key role in this conflict. In the OSCE Minsk Group, Moscow is also important and has so far been able to bring both parties to the negotiating table. I believe that Russia will again assume this role and will try to achieve de-escalation of the conflict. However, I think it is important to take into account that the positions of the governments of both countries are somewhat weakened. Not only Azerbaijan, but also Armenia probably do not know what to do next. I think the current situation requires an international mediator.