In the future, the mediation attempts of Turkey and Azerbaijan may lead to positive results

Turan: Since mid-November last year, there have been tensions between Russia and the United States and NATO over the Ukraine issue. How do you assess the behind-the-scenes processes?

Oktay: Russia and President Putin oppose NATO expansion in the former Soviet Union. In doing so, Putin is both trying not to lower his public profile and setting a new ideological goal in Ukraine to secure Russia's future. Putin, who also expects Bulgaria and Romania to leave NATO, is also aggressively targeting Ukraine and Georgia. Even in the Lavrov-Blinken meeting, Russia stated that Ukraine should not be a member of NATO. Although Putin and the Russian Federation see the Ukrainian people as part of the Russian nation and the Ukrainian state as part of Russia, a significant part of the Ukrainian population no longer wants to be identified with anything other than Ukraine. Even separating its church from Russia, Ukraine tends to move closer to the West. We see that several powerful states are making serious efforts to establish peace, while tensions between NATO and Russia in Ukraine are likely to turn into a war. China has asked Russia to start a war with Ukraine after the Winter Olympics. The fate of Ukraine depends on the Olympics in China. Because while the war in Ukraine is expected, the United States and Russia can come to an agreement, the new target will be China, and attention will be focused there. In fact, the tension between NATO and Russia is a show of force around the China issue.

Turan: As tensions between the West and Russia continue, there have been serious upheavals in Kazakhstan. CSTO armed forces went to Kazakhstan for the first time. How did you analyze the departure of soldiers from 6 countries shortly after going to Kazakhstan? Because there is no sign that the troops of the Russian Federation stationed in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan on November 10, 2020, will leave soon. What is the difference between the two events?

Oktay: In fact, there is no difference between the two events; however, Turkey and the world have been misinformed about the Karabakh issue. First of all, it was stated that the Karabakh problem has been resolved. However, we are facing the de facto occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Russia. We must voice this situation from all seats and achieve Russia's withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh, as in Kazakhstan. Looking at Zakharov's statements on the Lachin corridor, we see that communication between Yerevan and Khankendi will remain strictly under Russian control. Therefore, it would be naive to expect that the Russian armed forces will leave Nagorno-Karabakh after Kazakhstan. Russia left Kazakhstan as a result of a Western trap but when Putin realized it, it was over. In our opinion, the United States and NATO would create great chaos in Kazakhstan on January 20 to divert the attention of Russia from aggressive actions in Ukraine, but by acting earlier, they created chaos in the country. Then, realizing the trap set for it, Russia turned to Ukraine again. This was not good for Russia. There were negative reactions to Russia in other countries that understood that Putin wanted to revive the USSR.

Turan: After Kazakhstan, the pressure on the crisis between Russia and Ukraine has increased, and there has been a strong reaction from Russia to the Turkish president's announcement of a "meeting between Putin and Zelensky". What can Turkey do in this crisis, how much power does it have, can it affect the outcome?

Oktay: Turkey wants to be a mediator in this crisis, Erdoğan often says this. His proposal has been criticized in the Russian press. In fact, the state crisis in Kazakhstan has caused hesitation in Russia: Moscow, which dreamed of rebuilding the USSR on the one hand, began to worry about the fate of the Russian Federation on the other. Whether or not the two neighbors on the Black Sea coast start a war will inevitably have a negative impact on Turkey. Erdoğan does not want to damage his relationship with Putin, whom he calls a friend, but also defends Ukraine's territorial integrity. It is said that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also left for Ukraine, informing Russia and Turkey in advance. After the Ukraine crisis ends in one way or another, Erdoğan and Aliyev will gain some credibility with Putin, but Putin's Russia has already become the subject of controversy.

Turan: How can Turkey's initiatives to resolve the problems between Russia and Ukraine affect Turkish-Russian relations in Syria?

Oktay: There are problem points in the relations between Turkey and Russia, as well as problem-free points. There are problems between the two countries in Syria and Libya. Despite being a NATO country, Turkey is the only country in the Atlantic Alliance that seeks to raise its relations with Russia to a higher level. We see that Turkey and Russia cannot agree on many issues. In other words, it is a special situation for Turkey to say "no" to both the United States and NATO and Russia, and eventually, the United States and Russia will accept it. When Putin's situation is seriously discussed after the crisis in Ukraine, Turkey will see the benefits of the steps taken today.

Turan: In November last year, another important event took place in the field of normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia: diplomatic representatives were appointed, and the first meeting was held on January 14 in Moscow. Will this process continue, or will it end in vain after a while? What do you think about the Zangazur corridor, which has been keeping Turkey excited for a while?

Oktay: First of all, I want to say that the Zangazur corridor will not be opened. The protocol of agreement of November 10, 2020, does not contain a definite article on the opening of this corridor, Article 9 states that even if it is opened, the corridor will be controlled by the border service of Russian intelligence. Turkey was also misinformed on this issue. Think for yourself how beneficial it will be for Turkey and Azerbaijan. It would be wrong to evaluate the new steps taken to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia from a single point of view. The reason for Turkey's closure of the border checkpoint disappeared after the liberation of a significant part of Azerbaijani lands. Attempts to normalize Turkish-Armenian relations while the Lachin corridor and Nagorno-Karabakh are under the control of Russian forces will be an important support to Azerbaijan. Or the Nagorno-Karabakh region may become Ukraine's Donbas region over time. In order to normalize relations, Armenia must make serious changes in its constitution, declaration of independence, and laws. If Azerbaijan also plays a constructive role in this process, Turkey will be able to act more confidently. Armenia and Armenian diaspora organizations will give up hostility when they see that their policy against Turkey is wrong. If a new move reaches this point, a lot can change in the region.