TURAN's Washington correspondent interviewed Michael Rubin, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, whose major research area is the Middle East, with a special focus on Iran, Turkey, Arab politics, Afghanistan and diplomacy.
Being a former Pentagon official, Mr. Rubin regularly instructs senior military officers deploying to the Middle East on regional politics, and teaches classes regarding Iran, terrorism, and Arab politics on U.S. aircraft carriers. He has lived in Iran, Yemen, both pre- and post-war Iraq, and spent time with the Taliban before 9/11.
His newest book, Dancing with the Devil, a history of US diplomacy with rogue regimes and terrorist groups, will be published in early 2014.
Q. What is happening in Turkey right now and how could these protests affect the regional dimension ahead? What caused the protests and how adequate is the US reaction to them?
A. The spark for the protests, of course, was the government’s decision to destroy Gezi Park, one of the few green spaces in central Istanbul. The violent response by the Turkish police disgusted ordinary Turks and created the spark for Turks to express their growing unease at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s increasing authoritarianism. Erdoğan won elections, but confused democracy with majoritarianism. Just because a leader wins elections does not mean that they no longer need to subordinate themselves to the rule-of-law.
Q. What lessons would you highlight for the Middle East and the Caucasus, where people suffer from the oil-reach authoritarian governments and have problems similar to Turkey’s…
A. Oil has nothing to do with it, as many of the so-called Arab Spring countries—Libya being the exception—have little if any oil. The basic root of the protests is the desire by people for governments to be accountable.
The situation is more complex in the Caucasus because neighboring states might seek to take advantage of instability and may have goals other than democracy. The situation is worst in Armenia right now: While the Armenian lobby in America focuses on issues relating to recognition of the 1915 genocide or undercutting Azerbaijan in Washington and elsewhere, Armenians suffer under what has become a mafia state in which foreign investment has dried up. The situation has gotten so bad that no young person wants to remain in Armenia. Since independence, one-third of Armenians have left the country.
There is growing anxiety about the future of Georgia as well. While President Saakashvili should be commended for recognizing his party’s defeat at the polls, it is unclear if his opponent will share the same democratic spirit the next time around. Should Tbilisi fall more under Moscow’s influence, then Russia will increase its efforts to increase its influence over Azerbaijan.
Q. What are your expectations from next year's election in Turkey?
I’m a historian by training, and so I get paid to predict the past, not the future. The current protests in Turkey make AKP dominance uncertain. That said, the opposition in Turkey has long been weak. There is no real opposition to the AKP among the center-right, and neither the CHP nor the MHP have been able to expand their base. The question is whether the “Occupy Gezi” movement can lead to a new generation of leaders.
More likely, however, is that the protests will exacerbate divisions within the AKP. Beyond its façade of unity, there are persistent divisions among followers of Erdoğan, followers of Abdullah Gül, and those more loyal to cult leader Fethullah Gülen. Perhaps the best hope for democracy in Turkey lies with defections from within the AKP.
Q. Your recent piece on Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen's criticism of Erdogan’s handling of the Gezi Park protests was interesting. As you also mentioned, Gulen has an active influence among the security forces, and the police behavior probably reflects more upon the real Gulen than all of those shadow organizations who continue to sing his praises as a man of peace. How would you describe the main differences between Gulenists’ and Erdogan's overviews of Turkey and the entire region's future? Are they on the same page or do they have different views?
A. Both seek a more religiously-oriented state, and much of the difference between the two boils down into a dispute about which of the two will wield personal power. That said, Erdoğan focuses only on Turkey while Gülen’s ambitions appear to be wider.
Q. For many, Islam is increasingly becoming a factor in the politics of the wider Caucasus/Black Sea regions. Many in the country are afraid that the religion is replacing the regular opposition…
A. Across the Middle East, many opposition groups have sought to bolster both recruitment and legitimacy in religion. Nowhere has it worked, however, which is why protests against Islamist governments have erupted not only in Turkey, but also in Egypt. The stronger the middle class becomes in Azerbaijan, the stronger it will be and the more resistant to cynical religious populism. That said, visiting Nardaran was certainly a wake-up call for me.
Q. Recently, Baku hosted four top Obama advisers and more than 100 Congress/Senate members, a move that many here and in Baku see as one that "smells of oil.” You also were among the moderators, according to media reports. How successful do you think the Azeri government's efforts of hiring "friends" among top US politicians are and do they affect the real US diplomacy and Washington's attitude towards Azerbaijan?
A. The reports may have been a bit exaggerated: I counted two top former Obama advisers and only a dozen or so U.S. congressmen. There were state senators and state representatives from 41 different states and so the total reported includes them, but it would be wrong to conflate representatives in state legislatures with those in the U.S. congress.
While I understand opposition concerns about the conference, I believe them to be a bit misplaced: It’s important for Americans to learn about Azerbaijan regardless of the government in Azerbaijan. Washington and Baku share a number of strategic interests and partnership serves both countries regardless of who is in the White House or who leads Azerbaijan. Having friends in Washington – and educating congressmen about the challenges Azerbaijan faces, for example, the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh – benefits Azerbaijan. Given the strength of the Armenian lobby in Washington, it is long past time Azerbaijan become more active in cultivating friends among congressmen in the United States in much the same way that Armenia, Greece, Georgia, and Turkey have.
The organizers of the conference were smart to invite not only Democrats but also Republicans, because Azerbaijan’s interests should not be a partisan issue in Washington. As to your last question: Yes, cultivating friends can impact American diplomacy. Remember: the State Department carries out policy, but it is Congress which often creates it.
Q. By the way, the organizers of the Baku event -- Turkish-American Chamber was financed by the Turquoise Council of Americans and Eurasians -- both groups are apparently known to have ties to Fethullah Gulen… What are the direct links between the Azeri government and a moderate Muslim imam who has founded a network of charter schools in the US as well as Caucasus/Central Asia?
A. SOCAR was the main sponsor and several Azerbaijani and American companies contributed to a lesser extent. The Turquoise Council of Americans and Eurasians did not contribute any funding to the conference. They were hired by the sponsors to organize the conference, however, and take care of the work of inviting those the conference wanted to invite, organizing their travel and hotels, and doing other logistics. That said, the sponsors’ decision to hire the Turquoise Council rather than, for example, the AmCham (The American Chamber of Commerce in Azerbaijan) raises some questions.
Q. Secretary Kerry delivered remarks on Azerbaijan last week, during his meeting with Azeri FM Elmar Mammadyarov, only briefly mentioned the issue of human rights and democracy in Azerbaijan. What should be the Azeri democrats' take from this? Does that mean that the US has less interest/or concerns on what is happening in Azerbaijan, despite the fact that country is a few months ahead of the election?
A. To be perfectly honest, with civil war in Syria, intermittent crisis in North Korea, instability in Egypt and Jordan, and fear of a rising China, there is not a lot of attention paid in Washington toward Azerbaijan and its elections. After the victory of Hamas in the 2006 Palestinian elections, and then the consolidation of Muslim Brotherhood dictatorship in Egypt after that country’s elections, the emphasis on democracy that the Bush administration embraced during its first term, and the Obama administration embraced through the first year of the Arab Spring seems to have passed. This may not be what Azeri democrats want to hear.
The fact that human rights and democracy are mentioned at all is positive, however, since dozens of diplomats contribute to Secretary Kerry’s remarks. Some diplomats do not care at all about democracy and believe that by downplaying concerns about democracy and human rights, they can best foster good relations. I personally disagree with this approach.
I do not see Kerry ever taking a firm stand, alas. He has always dreamed of being secretary of state, but he has never been a man of principles: instead, he just likes being called “Mr. Secretary.” That said, the U.S. government will continue to seek reform inside Azerbaijan so long as reform does not destabilize the country in a way that Iran or Russia might take advantage of to subvert democracy entirely.
Q. Right after Mammadyarov’s trip, the ruling party YAP in Baku officially nominated Ilham Aliyev as a candidate for the upcoming election, third time running for presidency… Doesn't Washington anymore have any concern about current president’s nomination?
A. Washington will continue to push for reforms regardless of who is president, but I cannot imagine that given the scandals currently swirling around President Obama and the White House, too much attention is going to be paid to Azerbaijan. And while the government of Azerbaijan clearly wants to imply endorsement from Washington for President Aliyev’s candidacy, the view in U.S. government circles will always be that there should always be partnership between Washington and Baku, regardless of who is president in either the US or Azerbaijan.
Alakbar Raufoglu
Washington, DC
Question-answer
-
State Department's Liam Wasley, Director of the Office of European Security and Political Affairs at the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, speaks to TURAN's Washington correspondent Alex Raufoglu on NATO's comprehensive defense and deterrence plan for Ukraine, forthcoming announcements of a package of support, as well as the country's progress towards membership and other challenges.
-
Sadettin Tantan, one of Turkey's most experienced statesmen and politicians, answers the questions from the Turan News Agency.
-
Yılmaz Akıncı, an employee of the Türkiye office of the Al-Jazeera channel, answered the questions of Turan News Agency after the publication of his memoirs entitled "An Angel on My Tail"
-
Authoritative expert Sabit Bagirov, who heads the Foundation for the Promotion of Entrepreneurship and Market Economy, in an exclusive interview with Turan sheds light on the country's upcoming role as the organizer of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29).
Leave a review