Paul A.Goble: Azerbaijan Should Prepare a New Generation of Leaders

Famous American analysts Paul Goble, in his interview with the Azerbaijani service of the “Voice of America”,  assessed the political situation in the Caspian region, situation in Iran and in Azerbaijan. 

Recently, the tension between Iran and Azerbaijan is increasing. How do you see their future? Answering this question, Goble said that Azerbaijan is trying to implement a balanced foreign policy, maintaining a working relationship with its neighbors. However, this does not always work.  Iran's government supports Armenia, and is taking steps that concern Azerbaijan.

Despite 35 million Azerbaijanis living in Iran, it is difficult for them to feel themselves a part of Azerbaijani culture.

After the fall of the Shah's regime, there was ban on getting an education in Turkic language, which aggravated the situation. According to reports, there are currently 3500 Azerbaijani Turks in Iranian prisons. Under such a complex situation tension between the two neighbors is unavoidable.

 Twenty years passed after the collapse of the USSR. How does the USA see the region? Goble answered that 15 former Soviet republics are perceived not as a branch of Moscow, but as independent countries. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have always been considered occupied Western countries.  The USA has never recognized these territories as Soviet ones.  Other republics are also different.

 Now Azerbaijan is close to Turkey not to Russia. Central Asian republics are inclined to the south and west. Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus are inclined to Europe.

What is the main political goal of Russia in the South Caucasus? Answering this question Goble said that for Russia, Georgia is a "way", for Armenia " a mean", and for Azerbaijan a  "reward." The Russian government, along with the restoration of its authority in Azerbaijan is trying to deepen its relations with that country.

Azerbaijan is rich, has an important geographical position and is of geo-strategic interests of Russia.  One reason is that it’s a way to the south, to Iran. Of course, Moscow wants to see a friendly face in the government of Azerbaijan.

Armenia will understand in a few years that if Azerbaijan produces a Government that meets the interests of Russia, Moscow will "sell" Armenia.

Azerbaijan, in turn, should understand Russian influence is not good for the country, even if, in return Azerbaijan gets it’s territories. Russia seeks to achieve this. Putin's aim is to create a system of a Soviet type government in Azerbaijan, with dominance in Moscow. 

What will be the results of presidential elections in Azerbaijan this year?

Goble said he expects three things: 1) people will be given an opportunity to express their opinions without fear of threats;

2) elections will be transparent compared with the previous years;

3) the election will not only be a chance for expression but for Democracy as a valuable opportunity for stability.  Some people think that stability is when everyone is silent. For example, in Russia, Belarus and Uzbekistan, people's opinion means nothing and solves nothing. Therefore, the future of the countries is in question. Any government will sooner or later die, and that means that every nation should prepare leaders who will come sooner or later, and ensure stability in the future. -04D-