"The exposure campaign is only a small visible part of the political events"

Question:  Who is distributing these video images? Who is blackmailing the  members of YAP?

Answer: First of all, I want to note that the use of such images for the purpose of political struggle or simply for discrediting, blackmailing people is not only indecent, but also illegal. But, unfortunately, in recent years, the use of such dirty technology in Azerbaijan has become commonplace. The only difference from previous years is that if at that time such methods were more often used against opponents of the authorities in the opposition, civil society, the media, today both current and former representatives of the authorities are becoming their victims. From this it is clear that the struggle is no longer between the opposition and the authorities, but directly within the latter. For this reason, the victims of discrediting intimate videos are current and former government officials. As for who distributes them, I think everything is clear here: the distribution of such videos is always sanctioned by the highest echelons of power, and this is the case today. And the explanation for this is extremely simple. Video images of this type are available only to structures that have special technical and other capabilities for this. Considering that they are all state structures, it means that the authorities themselves sanction them.

Question: is the purpose of distributing such videos to discredit the ruling party or what is happening is the result of the struggle of internal party groups?

Answer: I think that the goal here is to threaten the groups within the government, to which these persons belong, to force them not to take any political steps and to weaken their positions. It's no secret that, despite all the condemnations, such methods give quite effective results, and they will continue for a long time. To do this, it will be enough to look at the experience of other countries. The talk is about authoritarian countries, but, first of all, about states with a democratic system, where these methods are still quite effective. And the authorities, of course, do not need to discredit the YAP, if such an authority still exists, because the struggle is for control over this party. So, if I am not mistaken in my assessment, then we can still witness the retaliatory “blow” of the other side.

Question: These videos were openly circulated in the pro-government media. As you know, they couldn't do it spontaneously. It also increases doubts. Could this order come from the top?

Answer: Of course, the media close to the authorities cannot spread this on their own initiative. In my opinion, there is no reason for doubt, on the contrary, the distribution of video footage by mass media close to the authorities brings even more clarity to the picture. This means that the dissemination of these exposing materials is sanctioned by the authorities themselves. Moreover, at the highest level.

Question: Lately there has been talk in society about dissolving parliament, holding a referendum and new proportional elections. Could it be that we will soon witness the emergence of a new party or the rebranding of the ruling party?

Answer: I already said that these events would take place at the end of 2020, but it seems that the war has pushed this into the background. The dissolution of parliament, as a rule, the transition to a new - parliamentary method of government are becoming increasingly necessary. However, in the socio-economic situation in the country and the current geopolitical realities around the region, the implementation of such a reform of the political governance system is associated with certain and serious risks. When intra-group conflicts within power are added to this, the risks become even higher. But, besides, in order to take steps in this direction, certain preparatory work is already being carried out. As for the measures that can be taken against the ruling party, I think that nothing of what you said will happen. A number of changes will take place in the party leadership, and the YAP will go to the elections in the same form. At the current stage, the dissolution or rebranding of the ruling party does not look real. And the creation of a new party requires serious human resources, and here the situation is not at all rosy. In the electoral system of Azerbaijan, the ruling party has an exclusive place and role, and its removal from this position or replacement by another means the breakdown of the existing system. Therefore, although there are serious reasons to expect something new, there is no reason.

Question: For many years we have witnessed such threats against opposition activists and journalists. And now we see that this is being done against members of the ruling party. Maybe, as Ramiz Geyushov himself said, this is done by forces from outside?

Answer: I do not know what they mean by "external forces", but I know for sure that even part of what is done from the outside comes from the country itself, or rather, from the authorities. And what they say about "foreign forces" who are trying to blame almost all of Azerbaijan's troubles is nothing more than chewed up cheap speculation. Although it is possible that Azerbaijan is in the sphere of certain interests of neighboring countries, they, moreover, use the existing “5th column” in the country, and in a specific case, within the government.

Question: Elmeddin Guliyev, the head of the public relations department of the central office of  YAP (the Yeni Azerbaijan Party) told the media that the eviction R. Geyushov from the ranks of the party as a whole would be considered at a meeting of the YAP board. Is it correct to exclude from the ranks of the party because of such events? Because this is also a question of personal life. Can the YAP pursue the goal of politicizing this event through this prompt statement?

Answer: Personal life in Azerbaijan, like most fundamental rights and freedoms, is inviolable. So exchanging views on this in itself is useless. As for the likelihood of a deliberate politicization of the issue, one cannot but agree with this. Because, in fact, everything could have been solved in a more relaxed way, but the purposeful creation of political excitement around him once again shows that the exposed campaign that has started is only a small visible part of political events. And maybe political upheavals.

Kamran Mahmudov