The hostility must end. No matter how difficult it is

Azerbaijan is ready to sign a peace treaty with Armenia, stated the President Ilham Aliyev on July 14 at the ceremony of presenting apartments and cars to the families of martyrs and war invalids in the Khojasan settlement of the Binagadi region of Baku.

“However, there is no reaction on the part of Armenia; there is no official reaction to this. Through unofficial channels, we receive information that Armenia is not ready for this. I think this will be a very big mistake. Just as the Armenian side made big mistakes, committed war crimes on the eve and during the war,” Aliyev said. Ilham Aliyev believes that this proposal is based on a new real situation.

“We believe that the issue has been resolved, there should be a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There should be recognition of each other's territorial integrity, recognition of borders, and a start should be given to work on delimitation. I must also say that international organizations are now also responding positively to the issue of delimitation."

In an interview with ASTNA, conflict expert Avaz Hasanov, answered questions about the prospects for a peace treaty between the two countries.

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Question: Ilham Aliyev said that Azerbaijan is ready to sign a peace treaty with Armenia. However, there is no official reaction from Armenia to this. Is Azerbaijan ready for peace? If Azerbaijan is ready, then why is not Armenia ready?

Answer: The announcement by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan of readiness for peace is actually a natural desire. Many years later, the country liberated its occupied territories and in a short time began mine clearance and construction. The main priority is to attract the attention of the world community to these creative works and receive support. Peace and security are the best support to obtain the goal.

At the same time, Azerbaijan hopes that the Armenian side will be interested in bringing peace back to the region, as it will be engaged in the development of its economic position and political relations. Peace is beneficial for Azerbaijan, and for Armenia, the conclusion of peace is economically beneficial, although it means recognition of political defeat.

The main reason for the absence of an official reaction on the part of Armenia is still the process of recognizing the results of the 2020 war, the loss of authority by the authorities, and the fact that the people are in a state of confusion.

Armenians need time out to gain confidence. They understand that the conclusion of peace in such conditions will cause a sharp decline in the national spirit, rupture or weakening of the ties of the Armenian authorities with the diaspora. The conclusion of peace will have a positive impact on the demographic situation of the country, but it will not seriously affect other problems of the country as a whole. After all, not the peace itself is important, but how to benefit from it. Will Armenia have the opportunity and time for this? I do not believe that now, against the background of the economic crisis and self-isolation of states, they have the opportunity for major changes and receiving support.

Question: The President noted in the peace treaty the mutual recognition of the territorial integrity of the two countries, the start of work on delimitation. Do you think that the peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia should contain only these questions?

Answer: In essence, the theses voiced by President Ilham Aliyev are aimed at normalizing relations in the region, which should be in the interests of the West and the civilized world. Despite the fact that Azerbaijan was in a state of war for 30 years, it did not lag behind development, but, on the contrary, began to increase its role in international and financial policy. For these 30 years, Armenia has not been able to obtain financial opportunities for development. After signing the agreement on November 10, the country has the opportunity to make real profits by joining some communication lines passing through the region. The main stage of this is the determination of the boundaries and the completion of the cartographic work. I understand that border delimitation and demarcation is inevitable, and this process is already at a certain stage. The regional states also need this in order to prevent a re-escalation of tensions, not to have a serious impact on projects that have already begun, or that will be launched.

Naturally, the peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia will become a document covering many areas. Although it is not yet completely clear what the theses of this treaty will be, it is obvious that it will reflect the mutual recognition of borders, the end of hostility between the two peoples, the return of refugees or the payment of compensation to them.

Question: Let us suppose that Armenia agreed to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Will this end the incident? There are territories in Azerbaijan that it cannot yet control, and a separatist regime reigns there. How will this issue be resolved?

Answer: One of the main points of the peace treaty signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be to demonstrate the approach of both states to the Armenians living in Karabakh. The issue of recognizing territorial integrity is also a principle that may be of interest to the international community. The cooperation of both states, in particular with the European Union, makes the recognition of borders important. If this happens, it will create a precedent for the nomination of the territorial integrity of Georgia and Ukraine as a condition for Russia's recognition. I want to say that the recognition of borders will also be encouraged as a normal phenomenon from the point of view of international law. The Armenians who lived in the territory of Karabakh will continue to live there. Naturally, over time, when the attitude of Azerbaijan towards the Armenians living there changes in a positive direction, when relations with the Armenians become warmer, the enmity will subside. What executive structures will remain there, we will become witnesses of a more active discussion of this after a while. 

Question: On the one hand, the president is talking about a peace treaty. On the other hand, truce is being violated in Shusha, Nakhchivan, Tovuz, Kelbajar and other regions. Is not it premature to talk about peace in such a tense atmosphere?

Answer: Random skirmishes in the border zone will not interfere with talks about peace. I recently shared a status that is very popular on social media. "The side that, having won the war, does not achieve the signing a peace treaty, will always face the threat of war." This means that winning a war does not mean achieving peace. The experience of Armenia has shown that if they once came up with attractive peace proposals or benefited from the negotiation process, now they would have a chance to conclude a peace treaty with a different position and a different result. It is never too late to talk about the peace; the main thing is not to be late with its conclusion.

Question: What is the reason for the increased tension lately? Is this a provocation of those, who oppose peace? If so, who wants to create tension in the region and why?

Answer: When Armenia just left the war, it was not interested in creating any tension. Because this would cause the loss of large positions. However, it was predictable that after the parliamentary elections were held in Armenia and Pashinyan gained some confidence, he would again begin to take active actions in the interests of Armenia and their recognition. At a time when Azerbaijan is ready for all processes in the name of peace, the expectations of the world will be different.

Armenia is interested in reminding the international community that relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are by no means an easily resolvable issue, and it will again contribute to the intensification of tensions.

Question: Lately there have been many discussions in connection with the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. How do you feel about the ideas voiced in these discussions? What is the essence of your peace proposals?

Answer: Many factors determine peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, we can see that they did not work; but, if the peace were signed, then both sides would benefit and a long-term peace would be established. Now, the peace proposed by Azerbaijan, after gaining an advantage, frightens Armenia. To achieve a normal peace, both peoples must understand that no matter how difficult it is the enmity must end. The enmity will hinder the normal development of both peoples, prevent the region from being open to peace, and deal a crushing blow to the well-being of the people. The essence of the peace treaty is this. When concluding peace, it is necessary to recall the history of relations between Germany and France. It will be difficult for Azerbaijan and Armenia to become isolated in the world, and this will lead to the fact that relations in this region will eventually improve.