What awaits Ukraine, will there be war? - a view from Kiev

Baku/07.12.21/Turan: The Ukrainian public is in a state of suspense due to Western media reports and statements by politicians, military and experts, including those from Russia, about an impending war.  Ordinary citizens do not take it seriously, and do not believe in a large-scale war with Russia, while another part - politicians and the military - admit the possibility of Russian aggression early next year. Ukrainian political observer and journalist Roman Chaykovsky said this in an interview with Turan.

"The common people underestimate the situation. It should be perceived adequately, a mistake can be costly. However, the government and a large part of the Parliament are aware of the threat," the expert said.

Asked about the state of the Ukrainian army and its armaments, Chaykovsky said that the army is strong enough and no time has been wasted since the loss of Crimea.  "The military says we are ready to repulse aggression," he noted.

At the same time, when adjusted for the probability of large-scale aggression along the entire border and the use of missiles and bombing it would be difficult to withstand. "But Moscow must understand that there are six nuclear power plants on the Ukrainian territory. What will happen if they bomb even one of them? It would cause huge damage not only to Ukraine but to Russia itself as well, including the whole of Europe," said Chaykovsky.

It should be acknowledged that a certain negative role was also played by Lukashenko who suddenly turned into a military ally of Russia and in case of war we should expect an attack from the Belarusian border, according to Kiev.

When asked what Russia's goal is, the columnist said that Putin has made no secret of the goal to recreate the USSR to some extent. "Without Ukraine, this is impossible and even if Russia annexes everyone else, Russians will be a minority there, and this contradicts the idea of the 'Russian World' that Moscow has proclaimed," Chaykovsky said.

How true are the claims that Russia is only blackmailing war by demanding that Kiev acknowledge the loss of Crimea and Donbass? To this question, Chaykovsky said that this is one possible scenario, but he did not rule out the Kremlin's desire to gain a greater weight and role in the world as a great power.

Another scenario is to force Kiev to turn its back on the West and abandon its aspirations to join the European Union and NATO.  In recent times, a part of Ukrainian society has favoured accommodating Moscow's discontent on this issue.

"However, a large part of society is in favour that the course of rapproching with the EU and NATO remain unchanged. Will these sentiments persist further? This will largely depend on the outcome of the Putin-Biden meeting and the further steps of the collective West," said Chaykovsky.

But even assuming that the Ukrainian authorities give in to Moscow's blackmail and turn their backs on the West, this would destabilise the situation inside Ukraine, the observer said.

Asked about the position of the West, Chaykowsky said that no one has any illusions, but in Ukraine they believe in the political and partly military support of the West. First and foremost, it concerns America. "We understand that the NATO will not fight in our place but what happened to us in Crimea in 2014 will not happen again.

Also, we realize that imperial sentiments in Russia are dominant and this country will always be a source of aggression and it will seek to grab whatever it can. That is the nature of this state, no matter who is in power," Roman Chaykovsky concluded. -02B-