Are Peace Talks Stalled Again?

Within the framework of the European Political Community's fourth summit, a meeting between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia was expected on July 19 in London. However, this did not take place. Official Baku announced that Armenia had declined the meeting, while Yerevan, on the contrary, stated that Azerbaijan had withdrawn from the meeting.

In recent years, peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been conducted separately through the mediation of both the European Union and Russia. In the past year, officials from both countries have also established direct contacts, achieving several advancements related to border demarcation. However, a final result has not yet been achieved in any of the three formats. Despite this, until recently, there were statements from the Armenian side claiming that "a contract could be signed within a month," and from the Azerbaijani side that "the number of open questions has significantly decreased."

Elman Nasirov, a member of the VI convocation of the Milli Majlis, told Turan that Azerbaijan is the initiator of the peace agreement, has determined its 5 main principles, and has proposed the draft of the peace treaty: “There may have been about 10 exchanges of views, and in principle, things were going well, with the Armenian side even saying they were ready to sign a peace treaty within a month.” According to Nasirov, Azerbaijan wants peace, but the country's position is that as long as Armenia maintains territorial claims against Azerbaijan in its Constitution, this is not possible: “Armenia should change its Constitution through a referendum regarding this issue, and then it is not excluded that a peace agreement could be signed by the COP29 event. If a peace agreement or even a framework agreement is signed, Pashinyan’s participation in COP29 could be possible.”

He noted that a meeting between the political leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia within the framework of the European Political Community’s fourth summit could have been possible: “But as it appears, the Prime Minister of Armenia has declined this meeting. This is surprising because a state that wants peace should not take such a step. It means that there are no real steps behind Armenia’s declarations about peace. Sometimes one might think that once again, France's President influenced Pashinyan to refuse contacts with the President of Azerbaijan. However, in any case, declining such a meeting is an event that harms the peace process.”

Political commentator Zardusht Alizade also commented on the issue to Azadliq Radio, stating that the party that declined the London meeting is Armenia: “Pashinyan wanted to show that he makes decisions independently. Armenia was making efforts to involve France as a mediator in the negotiations, but Azerbaijan unequivocally rejected France. As a result, the relations between Azerbaijan and France deteriorated significantly. At the London meeting, it was proposed that the mediator be the United Kingdom.”

According to the expert, the main thing is that the foreign ministers of the two countries are meeting, the work of the delimitation commission is ongoing, and the issue of the “Zangezur corridor” (the road expected to pass through Armenia's Syunik region) is gradually being resolved: “The United States is also working to open the corridor. Therefore, Azerbaijan is not in a hurry. Azerbaijan has a very strong leverage: the opening of borders with Turkey. Pashinyan’s political line is to separate from Russia and move towards the West. The only way to the West is through Turkey. But if Armenia does not meet Azerbaijan’s conditions, Turkey will not open its border with Armenia. In such a case, it is more necessary for Pashinyan to sign a peace agreement.”

However, in Alizade’s opinion, a peace agreement between the two countries will not be signed this year: “If the Azerbaijani side has set the condition that it will not sign a peace agreement until Armenia changes its constitution, this is a definitive decision. The importance of the peace agreement is highly exaggerated in Azerbaijani public opinion. Let me give an example. There is a significant cooperation and security agreement between Ukraine and Russia. But now Russia has attacked Ukraine. Does this agreement have any significance?”

He believes that the only security guarantee is the strength of Azerbaijan: “However, the Azerbaijani government is pursuing somewhat ineffective policies, spending its natural resources. We do not have a strong economy. This is our problem.”