Azerbaijan Assumes GUAM Chairmanship Amid Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics

Effective January 1, Azerbaijan has taken over the chairmanship of the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development-GUAM, succeeding Ukraine. The move marks Azerbaijan's second stint at the helm, with its previous presidency in 2020 focusing on energy security, transport, and trade turnover.

Established in 1997, GUAM initially emerged as a potential alternative to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), seeking to distance itself from Russian influence. However, recent years have witnessed Azerbaijan drawing closer to CIS member countries, notably Russia, as GUAM members have pursued integration with the West. Ukraine and Moldova have secured candidate status for the European Union, while Georgia has received favorable signals in that direction.

During Ukraine's 2023 presidency, priorities encompassed sovereignty, territorial integrity, trade development between European and Asian markets, promotion of the Free Trade Zone, cooperation on the GUAM transport corridor with the European Commission, and streamlining customs procedures.

Azerbaijan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is yet to provide official statements on its priorities for the GUAM chairmanship. However, Elshad Mirbashir, a deputy of Milli Majlis,  explained to Turan that Azerbaijan's proactive and non-declarative participation in various platforms, emphasizing the country's commitment to derive tangible benefits from cooperative opportunities.

Mirbashir clarified that Azerbaijan engages in these platforms to serve its interests, rejecting any role as a geopolitical pawn. He emphasized Azerbaijan's independent policy and strategic partnerships with nine European Union member states.

Regarding GUAM's partial integration into the European Union, Mirbashir questioned whether full integration aligns with national interests, independence, and sovereignty, noting that EU member countries cede some sovereignty.

Azer Gasimli, head of the Institute of Political Management, described Azerbaijan's participation in GUAM as formal in an interview with Radio Azadlig. Gasimli expressed the belief that Azerbaijan has shifted its geopolitical orientation towards Russia, evolving into an ally rather than an integrator with the West. He contended that GUAM, lacking meaningful cohesion, has lost its relevance, with Azerbaijan deviating from its objectives.

Gasimli suggested that Azerbaijan's Russian-oriented policy might hinder development, lead to economic crises, and potentially regress on democracy and human rights. This analysis underscores the evolving dynamics in Azerbaijan's geopolitical alignments and the implications for regional cooperation platforms like GUAM.