Expert: Armenia's departure from Russia could potentially benefit Azerbaijan

Armenia's geopolitical maneuvering, particularly its recent distancing from Russia, has sparked considerable debate over its ramifications for the South Caucasus region, especially in light of the ongoing peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's assertion of the importance of Armenian-Russian relations notwithstanding, recent developments suggest a divergence from traditional alliances towards closer ties with the West. This shift raises questions about the potential threats to regional stability and the peace process.

Pashinyan's inclination towards fostering closer relations with the West was highlighted during his recent meeting in Brussels, where significant aid pledges were made by the European Union and the United States. The promise of $356 million in aid reflects a strategic move by Armenia to reduce its economic dependence on Russia, a dependence underscored by its reliance on Russian markets and the presence of a Russian military base on its soil. This reorientation, while aimed at diversifying Armenia's economy, also signals a desire to assert greater autonomy from Moscow's influence.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, Director of the Atlas Research Center, argues that Armenia's pivot away from Russia could potentially benefit Azerbaijan. Shahinoglu suggests that the presence of Russian military installations in Armenia may become redundant in the event of normalized relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, thereby alleviating tensions in the region. Moreover, Shahinoglu contends that both Armenia and Azerbaijan are skeptical of Russia's mediation efforts in the peace process, favoring alternative mediators such as Germany.

Indeed, recent initiatives, including the meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Munich under the mediation of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, indicate a shifting dynamic in regional diplomacy. Nasimi Mammadli, a political scientist, underscores the importance of ensuring that Azerbaijani-Armenian relations are not solely dictated by Russian interests. He advocates for a peace agreement that minimizes Russia's role, emphasizing direct negotiations between the leaders of the two countries.

However, while there is a desire to reduce Russian influence in the region, concerns persist regarding the potential repercussions of strained relations with Moscow. Mammadli warns of the dangers posed by Russia's assertive actions, drawing parallels with its interventions in Ukraine. Despite Russia's self-proclaimed role as an effective mediator in the South Caucasus, skepticism remains among regional actors, with Azerbaijani officials cautious yet optimistic about their relationship with Moscow.

In response to Armenia's overtures to the West, the Russian Foreign Ministry has expressed reservations, citing potential disruptions to the region's stability. Maria Zakharova, the Ministry's spokesperson, underscored Russia's historical role as a stabilizing force in the South Caucasus, cautioning against Western interference. While the Russian Embassy in Azerbaijan declined to comment, Azerbaijani officials have reiterated the importance of their country's alliance with Russia, as evidenced by the "Declaration on Allied Interaction" signed two years ago.

In conclusion, Armenia's recalibration of its foreign policy away from Russia carries significant implications for regional dynamics, particularly in the context of the protracted conflict with Azerbaijan. While there is a growing sentiment favoring diversification of alliances and reduced Russian influence, concerns remain about potential destabilization and the efficacy of alternative mediators.