Has the peace agreement, with most clauses agreed upon, stalled?

After the 44-day war in 2020, peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been ongoing for four years. Despite negotiations taking place separately through the mediation of both the European Union and Russia, as well as directly between the parties, no peace agreement has been signed yet. However, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated last week that 80% of the peace agreement draft had been agreed upon.

On September 9, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said that Yerevan and Baku had fully agreed on 13 of the 16 clauses in the peace agreement draft and partially agreed on the remaining three.

Today, on September 10, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also mentioned that 13 clauses had been agreed upon. Additionally, he added that the preamble had been fully settled. Earlier, he had proposed signing the agreement on the agreed clauses and continuing discussions on the unresolved ones later.

Commenting on Mirzoyan’s statement, Ayxan Hacızade, the spokesperson for the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, noted that Armenia had removed necessary provisions from the peace agreement draft: "Although approximately 80% of the draft has been agreed upon, some provisions have yet to be settled. However, this does not mean that, as Armenia suggests, the unresolved provisions should be removed from the draft for the agreement to be signed. This would be unacceptable."

Hacızade emphasized that for the peace agreement to be signed, Armenia must first amend its Constitution, which references territorial claims against Azerbaijan. According to recent statements from Yerevan, Armenia intends to amend the Constitution only in 2027. In this case, what does Azerbaijan see as a way out of the situation? Is the solution dependent on the two countries themselves, or are there external factors involved?

Rasim Musabeyov, a deputy of the 6th convocation of the Milli Majlis (Parliament), told Turan that the signing of the peace agreement mainly depends on the two countries: "The specific concerns and proposals from both sides are well known. The President of Azerbaijan has proposed that the 80% of the peace agreement text that has been agreed upon should be initialed. Initialing does not mean signing but, according to the rules of initialing, no further changes are made to the agreed text. This proposal remains on the table."

Musabeyov noted that changing the Constitution takes time, but some issues can be resolved at the parliamentary level: "The declaration regarding unification with Karabakh was adopted by the Armenian parliament. Now, they should amend the law and remove this unconstitutional and unenforceable part from the Constitution. They have not done this yet."

He also pointed out that there are other documents adopted at the parliamentary and governmental levels: "Let them make these changes, and Azerbaijan will see that the process is moving forward. Armenia’s parliamentary commission that was working with the separatist entity must be dissolved, as this separatist body was not legally recognized, and it no longer exists in practice. Alen Simonyan has already mentioned the disbanding of the headquarters of this now-defunct entity, which had turned into a hotbed of terrorism against Pashinyan. This is a positive step, and Azerbaijan will evaluate actions taken in this direction."

According to the deputy, all these are just words: "So far, we have heard nothing but words. Therefore, we cannot accept any change in policy based on mere statements. Armenian government representatives have made many statements. We will assess relations based on specific decisions and their implementation."

Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas Research Center, also told Azadliq Radio that both sides confirm that most of the peace agreement has been agreed upon: "The only contentious issue is the clause in the Armenian Constitution that contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan. If that clause is removed from the Constitution, nothing will stand in the way of signing the peace agreement."

The political analyst believes that delaying the peace agreement until 2027 and prolonging tensions in the region do not serve the interests of either country: "Armenia could meet Azerbaijan's condition by the end of this year. However, Pashinyan is also seeking a reciprocal move from Azerbaijan. This step could be providing security guarantees and recognizing Armenia’s territorial integrity."

According to the expert, several power centers influence the process in the region: "These are Russia, Iran, France, and the U.S. Turkey, on the other hand, wants peace and the start of regional projects. However, the four states I mentioned may have different interests. The U.S. actually wants a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan soon and is putting pressure on the Armenian government not to delay and reach an agreement with Azerbaijan to reduce Russia's influence in the South Caucasus. France seeks to strengthen its presence in the region through Armenia."

The expert also believes that Russia wants any peace agreement to be brokered through its mediation: "But the parties do not need this, and that worries Russia. If Armenia takes a step forward, no major power will be able to stop it."