Peace Talks Between Azerbaijan and Armenia: 'Once Trump Takes Office...'

During the 31st session of the OSCE Council of Foreign Ministers held in Malta on December 5-6, no meeting occurred between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan.

According to claims by Azerbaijani government-aligned media, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken proposed a meeting between the two foreign ministers during the session. However, the Azerbaijani side reportedly refused this offer, citing what they perceive as an unfair and biased policy by the Biden Administration toward Azerbaijan. These claims, based on diplomatic sources, have not yet been addressed by any of the involved parties, including U.S. officials.

Although peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been ongoing for over three years since the Second Karabakh War, a peace agreement has yet to be signed. Negotiations have involved mediation by the U.S., Russia, and the European Union (EU), with the U.S. supporting the EU's efforts. Additionally, direct talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia have recently focused on border issues.

Despite these efforts, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Bayramov emphasized at the OSCE session that Armenia's continued territorial claims against Azerbaijan remain a significant obstacle to the peace process. Meanwhile, Armenian officials deny such claims, with Foreign Minister Mirzoyan stating that 15 out of 17 clauses of a draft agreement have been agreed upon, though details remain undisclosed.

Asim Mollazade, a member of Azerbaijan's Parliamentary Committee on International Relations, told Turan that Azerbaijan sees no need for mediation. He suggested that direct bilateral contact is sufficient to finalize the necessary agreements, provided Armenia demonstrates genuine willingness.

Mollazade attributed the lack of progress to Armenia's failure to amend its constitution to renounce territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Recently, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan rejected Azerbaijan's demand for constitutional changes, instead accusing Azerbaijan of harboring territorial claims in its own constitution.

Political commentator Nasimi Mammadli told Radio Azadliq that the involvement of OSCE Minsk Group members often deepens divisions rather than facilitating peace. He emphasized that direct talks without mediators are the most viable path forward. Mammadli also noted that Western mediation, particularly by European Council President Charles Michel, has been more effective in advancing the peace process than Russia's approach, which aimed to freeze the conflict and maintain a long-term presence under the guise of peacekeeping.

Mammadli downplayed the significance of tensions between the Azerbaijani government and the Biden administration, noting that these disagreements are not insurmountable. He highlighted that while the Second Karabakh War began during the Trump administration, Azerbaijan's restoration of sovereignty concluded under Biden's presidency, with no evidence of actions contrary to Azerbaijan’s interests.

Optimism for a peace agreement persists, with analysts suggesting that progress could accelerate if the Trump administration returns to power. The potential for a breakthrough, however, depends on the political will and commitment of both sides to resolve outstanding issues.