What to Expect from the New National Assembly?

Five days have passed since the snap parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan. Although the Central Election Commission (CEC) has not yet finalized the protocols, the leading candidates from all 125 constituencies have been announced. What can be expected from them?

Azər Qasımlı, Director of the Political Management Institute, is against viewing these candidates as a new force. According to him, 70-80% of these individuals are from the old composition. "If nothing changes, the new assembly will merely execute what the executive power dictates. There is no real parliamentarism or representation of the people in Azerbaijan today," he told Radio Azadlıq.

Political commentator Zaur İbrahim offers a different perspective. He believes that the CEC's announcement of the leading candidates suggests that the legislative body will enhance international cooperation and strengthen parliamentary diplomacy. "The presence of both professional diplomats and independent technocrats with international education and expertise in the new assembly indicates that there will be experienced specialists who can successfully address upcoming tasks in this area," he said.

Another political commentator, Nəsimi Məmmədli, argues that the primary policy directions for the country—economic, political, social, legal, and others—are determined by the highest executive authority, the president. He notes that Article 109 of the constitution grants the president a broad range of powers. "The entire system of relations in the country is under the legal and political will of the president. The legislative and judicial branches are also constitutionally subordinate to the president. Therefore, there are not high expectations from the National Assembly in terms of its authority and composition. In reality, the election day was an ideal test to gauge public expectations from the assembly. Voter turnout was between 6-7%."

According to the CEC, voter activity was over 37%.

Qasımlı notes that the difference in the last two or three convocations of the National Assembly compared to earlier ones is that there were no professional lawmakers. "Now the National Assembly has become a department of the Presidential Administration, whereas it used to be a notarial body. Today, the committee heads in the Assembly have taken on half of this work."

İbrahim emphasizes that the new composition will include both previous economists and new figures. "I believe that the capacity to better scrutinize government proposals and prepare new suggestions will increase. The functionality of the legislative body will also improve. The National Assembly is typically a platform for raising socially relevant issues, especially concerning social protection measures and the needs of vulnerable groups."

He suggests that society is very sensitive to deputies' opinions on these issues: "I expect that in the VII convocation, we will witness professional suggestions and recommendations in this area. I think economist deputies are competent in this field, and their concerns will enhance the effectiveness of defending vulnerable groups."

Məmmədli states that 88 members or 70.4% of the previous assembly are candidates again. He adds that, with minor exceptions, most of the previous members are remembered for their passive activity. Many of the new candidates have never been involved in public-political activities: "Their names and activities are not only unknown in society but even difficult to find through Google. It will be challenging to address the society’s fundamental problems effectively with these representatives. There is no basis for optimism regarding solving numerous social-political issues."

Qasımlı questions how they might counteract devaluation: "Firstly, they do not have political powers to call ministers and demand reports. Secondly, the National Assembly is a legislative body, not the Ministry of Economy. Economists in the Assembly do not make decisions about the economy; they discuss and approve the budget, meaning they merely ratify decisions. They lack the functions and political will."

İbrahim notes that various forecasts regarding devaluation have been made over the years, but he sees no real basis for devaluation: "The majority belongs to the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, so we won't see a distinctive stance on government decisions. However, deputies can contribute to considering the needs of vulnerable groups more in economic decisions, optimizing budget resource distribution, and increasing transparency. They can also bring current issues to the government's attention."

Məmmədli, however, believes that the National Assembly's capacity for positive steps in this area is limited: "We have not seen any deputies proposing serious legislative initiatives in recent years. Legislative initiatives usually come from the president. The parliament lacks the power and will to take different steps regarding economic-financial policies."