Another window of opportunity

Pashinyan can be called "Mr. 10% problem". His entire political career since being a deputy is a continuous line of problems, first for him, then for the people, with the phrase about 10% he finished off himself as a politician and at the same time as a nation (“Let (Sargsyan - ed.) Ask the question, “Why did not the Iskander missile explode? Or why did it explode by 10 percent?” Pashinyan said on February 23 in an interview with 1in.am). The reason is not that he again made a mistake or deliberately lied, but the problem is that he insulted the interests of Russia's GDP - the pillar of Russian statehood. At the end of last year, Russia severely punished Armenia for its attempt to go to the West, allowing Azerbaijan to win the war. The second Armenian insult to Russia can lead to the death of Armenia, they say. Truly, Pashinyan is "Mr. Problem".

The popularly elected prime minister was opposed by a military junta - classical, Latin American, like the "black colonels" in Greece in 67-74. Similar colonel-generals overturned the state in Turkey, Chile, the USSR and many countries in Africa and Asia. Sometimes juntas led the country to development (Chile), sometimes to collapse (GKChP in the USSR). What will be the result of the Armenian junta if Pashinyan is driven out?

The statement of the Armenian generals contains many splendid and at the same time empty phrases in the style of Armenian political rhetoric. The most remembered pearl that caused laughter in Azerbaijan: "The Armenian armed forces honorably fulfilled their duty, fought the enemy side by side with the people. The ineffective management of the current authorities and the most serious mistakes in foreign policy brought the country to the brink of destruction," the statement says. ...

Splendor and emptiness are needed to hide lies. Since 2020, General Movses Hakobyan, for the first time voiced the only truth about the reason for the defeat: "The Armenian army is poorly prepared and fought poorly." This formula accommodates low-quality weapons, untalented, corrupt commanders, undisciplined and untrained army.

Bravo General! Tired of reading a lie, he decided to tell the truth. And right away, here: "they have done their duty, with honor ...» 10 thousand deserters in the first week of the war - is that an honor? If the Armenians have their own ancient, unprecedented understanding of honor, then it is another matter. They have the right to understand the way they want.

Who will win - defeatist junta or Mr. 10% problem? No one will give an accurate forecast, as there is little reliable data. On the one hand, the majority of the people are behind Pashinyan, as shown by a recent Gallup poll. On the other hand, the junta is energetic, armed, mobilized, while Nikol's power is loose and under intense emotional stress. Nikol is a strong man, he can endure, but not all of his people are the same. There will be defectors to the military camp. Perhaps the parties to the conflict will carefully read the instruction from Moscow, since everyone there, without exception, is now tied to the opinion of the Kremlin.

Putin's spokesman Peskov said that the situation in the Kremlin should remain in the constitutional field, which means that Putin wants to keep Pashinyan. This makes sense, since whoever takes his place can bury the Statement of November 9, 2020, which Putin considers his most important achievement. After such large political and financial investments in the preservation of Nikola's power, Russia does not need to start building the Armenian power from scratch. It is harmful and costly, and is fraught with Armenia's out of control.

Azerbaijan is ready to rejoice at both the preservation of Pashinyan and his overthrow. It is impossible to accurately calculate which option is worse for them and, accordingly, better for us. All of us are talking and thinking about the possibility of completing the valiant deed of the Azerbaijani army on the sly, establishing the rule of law throughout the territory of Azerbaijan. Our authorities have experience of both mediocre non-use of both internal and external problems in Armenia. It is not necessary to launch a war in 2021, it is enough to move the Azerbaijani army forward in Karabakh almost without shooting, closing the ring around Khankendi and not entering this Azerbaijani city in order to avoid civilian casualties. But the question, of course, is a difficult one, it must be settled with the Russians.

If the junta wins in Yerevan, then another window of opportunity will open up for Azerbaijan, and the task is easy to complete. Almost all preparatory movements for this have been done.