The Azerbaijani-Turkish relationships have deteriorated against the gas background. Ilham Aliyev"s recent statements made it clear that the gas issue has played an important role in the geopolitical problems on the South Caucasus.
On the eve of Ilham Aliyev"s visit to Moscow mass media reported that Azerbaijan and Turkey failed to come to an agreement on the gas transit. Till now the countries said that they need to find an agreement on separate issues, but now it has been stated that Turkey would like to re-sell Azerbaijani gas to Europe itself. Turkey offers to buy Azerbaijani gas on the Turkish border at the price of $120,000 per 1,000 cub.m., which is not the European price. The difference in price, which is almost 50%, will go to the Turkish budget. Seven months ago Aleksei Miller, President of Russian Gasprom company, offered Baku to buy the whole volume of Azerbaijani gas at the European prices.
Judging by all, during this period Azerbaijan and Turkey tried to reach an agreement, but failed. Baku"s refusal to sell gas at a low price has coincided with Turkey"s plans to open the Armenian border. Probably this was a simple coincidence. According to one of the versions, Ankara has the right to demand the "share" in the capacity of low gas price in exchange for support and financial and diplomatic losses from blockading the Armenian borders. But once refused, Turkey has decided to teach a lesson to Azerbaijan and show that it has its national interests and moral right to open the borders. This position has been highly assessed by the U.S. and EU, which demanded opening of borders with Armenia. Turkey has skillfully used interests of the U.S. and EU to strengthen pressure on Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan thinks that price that Turkey demanded for support is unacceptable and sharply changed its priorities, staking on the Russian Gasprom company. Azerbaijan will sell gas to Europe at the price of $200-250, but Europe will lose Nabucco project, Turkey its influence and the U.S. cannot unblock Armenia. In this game strategic priorities of each of the sides are contrary to the interests of the remaining partners and it is rather difficult to combine them.
After these mutual knockdowns nobody has won. Azerbaijan"s diplomatic "success" endangers the Nabucco project and can make Azerbaijan hostage of its ambitions and the Russian gas transport system, as it happened with Ukraine and Belarus. Azerbaijan can lose its image of a reliable ally and partner of the strategic project of the Southern Transport Corridor between Asia and Europe.
Moscow has received the gift from the place it less expected it. Azerbaijan is interested in the Nabucco project and made gas supplies to Europe bypassing Russia irreversible. But political ambitions of Azerbaijani and Turkish leaders failed to reach an agreement on these issues.
In 1997 Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev "blocked" implementation of the trans-Caspian gas pipeline, because he failed to come to an agreement with Turkmenbashi on the gas pipeline quotes. Turkmenbashi offered Baku a quote of 5 billion cub.m., taking 15 billion to itself. Time has shown that Heydar Aliyev"s refusal was a strategic mistake. Had Baku built the gas pipeline that time, it could supply gas to Europe by itself.
Situation is the same now. Baku thinks that Turkey must back Azerbaijan for the sake of Turkish solidarity and its historical mission (nobody knows its limits). Turkey believes that it is ready to do that, but not endlessly and not for free). Life shows that Churchill"s expression that there are no lifelong enemies and friends, but there are lifelong interests, is true. Prime Minister of Czech Republic, which was occupied by the Soviet Union in 1968, was the first who criticized Georgia for its conflict with Russia. The motive of Czech Premier was fear to stay without Russian gas. Here is the solidarity of the world community!
Rights now politicians are expecting Russia"s support to the Karabakh conflict. In this situation one feels that he or she had been deceived and robbed. One feels like a rabbit in front of the constrictor.
It would have been silly to hope that Moscow will easily change its priorities for the sake of gas. One should bear in mind that it is not "adherence to principle" that the U.S. and EU respect Azerbaijan for. Inability of Turkey and Azerbaijan to reach an agreement on such a natural issue as gas supplies to Europe will force them to pay a high price and they will feel consequences of these mistakes during a long time.
Shahin Hajiyev
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