OPEN OR DO NOT OPEN

What will happen if the Turkish-Armenian border is opened? - this is the most important question in Azerbaijan in the past days. Because this issue will determine if we are friends with Turkey or not, if we listen to Turkish pop songs or not, if the gas is transported to the north or west, if our official ideology is "one nation, two states" and if the white house invents a new formula "the old neighbor is better than two new ones."
The turbulent flows of Azerbaijani foreign policy allow any versions and variations of patriotism and national interests. The authorities have already made some very important statements. The Azerbaijani officials stated that the decision to open the border between Turkey and Armenia has been initiated by the ruling party AKP, but not the whole Turkish nation. Azerbaijani official media even started quoting the Turkish opposition.
President has made it clear through the leakage in mass media that he could refuse of the Nabucco project in favor of the northern route and even hinted at possibility of closure of other regional transport projects, if the border is opened.
Right now the observers, diplomats and intelligence agents in many countries try to clarify if it was a real information or rumors. A lot has been put on stake these days to ignore or underestimate the happening. Considering president"s nature, the most decisive steps can be expected. And even if they are contrary to long-lasting interests of the country, they will spite Ankara and Washington
for such "disrespect."
It seems like Ankara has heard these threats, though it does not conceal its surprise with Baku"s tough position. The Turkish officials claim that the issue has been agreed with Azerbaijan and it was a misunderstanding.
According to another version, this is a well staged performance of Baku and Ankara. The scandal is desinged for Washington and Europe, which pressure Turkey demanding opening of borders and recognition of the Armenian
genocide. The second version does not seem to be convincing, though it is not ruled out.
But the emotions do not allow analyzing the problem and weight all the pros and cons. This situation is ordinary for the Azerbaijani society, which is deprived of free and democratic air. Let"s analyze the matter from various viewpoints.
1) What will happen if the border is opened?
Psychological "victory" of Armenia, which did not free the occupied territories (seven regions around Karabakh), but improved relations with Turkey, will be a negative factor for Azerbaijan. In addition, Armenia could improve
its economic situation, though it will have to revise its relationships with Russia. The agreements on electric energy supplies, construction of the new electric station and opening of the new transport routes will bring Armenia
real financial dividends. Armenia will not be in hurry to change its position to Karabakh. Dozens of thousands of Armenians and gradually the whole Armenian society will significantly change its negative attitude towards Turkish and then Azerbaijanis and this is a positive factor for Azerbaijan.
The economic contacts and cultural exchange will influence the Armenian society making it more tolerant and ready to peaceful co-existence. The ideological slogan "Turkish is enemy!" will be removed from the agenda. In the perspective reduction of the Russian presence in the region will make Armenia more independent and ready to compromises.
2) What will happen if the border is not opened?
Baku will win moral victory and frustrate plans of the Turkish ruling party and Armenian Foreign Ministry. Armenia will realize that it will never have better life until Karabakh liberation. Turkey is well aware of the fact that the thesis "one nation two states" has a clear meaning and first of all it taking Baku"s interests into consideration. There are no doubts that Ankara will never forget that and will never forgive the humiliation. It is hard to suppose that diplomatic "victory" over Turkey will accelerate solution to the Karabakh conflict
or urge Ankara to exert a tough pressure on Armenia. Turkey will most likely move away from the talks and wait for their logical result. But if Baku decides to begin military activities, it will be hard to expect support from Turkey and Ankara can pay Baku the same coin.
From the geopolitical viewpoint this is attempt of the U.S. and European Union to change situation in the Karabakh conflict and create more favorable atmosphere for its solution. It is hard to speak about conditions and details of the talks, which were conducted between Washington, Ankara, Yerevan and Baku the last several
months. But it is clear that as minimum two capitals were not ready to the talks.

Shahin Hajiyev