Not only between Tovuz and Tavush

This time, at the junction of the Tovuz region of Azerbaijan and the Tavush region of Armenia, the two sides used mainly artillery and drones, did not use infantry, as it was during the April battles in 2016 on the contact line in Karabakh.  Over the past four years this three-day artillery duel was, perhaps, the longest and to some extent equally effective for the parties - military facilities were destroyed, there are losses among the command staff.

It is difficult to establish with accuracy what caused the events in the south-west of Azerbaijan, two hundred kilometers from Karabakh. Armenian Defense Minister Tonoyan said that on June 12 in the afternoon an UAZ-car with Azerbaijani servants entered a zone controlled by the Armenian armed forces. Azerbaijanis had been warned that they were in a danger zone. They left the car and went away (?!).  Then the Azerbaijani side began shelling the Armenian position from which the UAZ passengers received a command to return.

He also rejected the version by the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, according to which Azerbaijan began shelling in order to return the UAZ car. “In this case, they could get in touch with us and reach an agreement not to shoot, so that they could take their car away. However, they immediately began shelling."  https://rossaprimavera.ru/news/de0e1f29

The Azerbaijani side does not explain under what circumstances the first five military servants were killed and wounded on that day. Should we guess from the conflicting statements that they were the passengers in the UAZ-car?

Both armies call their actions punitive, but not retaliatory, as it was in the past. This is a new rhetoric for the first time used in the information networks over a long time of conflict, suggests that the parties are ready to launch and justify fire strikes in the first conflict situation, regardless of whether it was random or not. Such a reaction also shows that both sides are tired from a long confrontation, the endless showing off weapons. The societies of both countries are exhausted due to socio-economic crises and shocks, as well as the limitations and hopelessness of the coronavirus pandemic. This situation has turned the conflict, which remains the main obstacle to solving the problems of Azerbaijan and Armenia and stability in the region, into a detonator of a regional explosion.

Despite all the efforts of international mediators to pacify the sides after the April fights of 2016, since the second half of 2019 there has been an increase in threats in the rhetoric of President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Aliyev, made a pause expecting that the newly elected Pashinyan would abandon the warlike course of his predecessors in the person of Presidents Kocharian and Sargsyan, and for some time refrained from reproaching the new authorities of Armenia.  Pashinyan, whom the opposition, in the person of his predecessors, accused of trying to capitulate to Azerbaijan, used provocative actions against Baku, demonstrating the continuity of the policy of separating Karabakh from Azerbaijan. 

Aliyev and Pashinyan clearly demonstrated their irreconcilable views during their public face-to-face verbal duel on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on February 15 this year.

External factors can also provoke Armenia and Azerbaijan to use force to defend their interests, which are diametrically opposite - the Armenian interpretation of the right of nations to self-determination and the Azerbaijani interpretation of the principle of territorial integrity clash here. Although Azerbaijan is ready to synthesize these opposites as a compromise in the form of self-determination within the framework of territorial integrity. This approach does not find understanding in Yerevan. The farther, the more the Armenian approach runs into a misunderstanding of international mediators, who have been striving for 30 years to reconcile the warring parties.

On June 20, 2020 the European parliament adopted a resolution  2019/2209(INI) titled «Recommendation of the European parliament to the Council, Commission and Vice-President of the Commission / EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy under the Eastern partnership program before the June (2020) Summit». 

The document was drawn up by European parliament deputy from Lithuania, Petyras Aushtrevichus with the participation of co-reporters Radoslav Sikorskiy, Anna Fotyga (both from Poland), Attila Ara-Kovach (Hungary) and Marketa Gregorova (Czech).

A preamble to the document refers to a resolution of the European parliament 2009/2216(INI) titled «Demands to the strategy of the European Union at South Caucasus» adopted on May 20, 2010. Items 8 and 10 of the resolution called territories occupied by Armenian armed forces as «occupied».

The new resolution of the European Parliament, as in the previous document 10 years ago, does not mention the “right to self-determination”, on which the Armenian side insists in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. The document also notes that, "The independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Eastern Partnership countries are still undermined by unresolved regional conflicts, external aggression and the ongoing occupation of some of these countries ..."

Paragraph (b o) calls for the immediate withdrawal of foreign troops from all occupied territories. This clause applies to all the Eastern Partnership member countries in whose territory the occupying forces are deployed and, accordingly, to Azerbaijan, the territories of which are occupied by Armenia.

The document expressed EU support for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of the countries of the Eastern Partnership "within internationally recognized borders" (paragraph b m).

It also contains “support by the [European Union] of the efforts of [states] to fully implement these principles” (“support their efforts to fully enforce those principles”).

In fact, the European Union recognizes the full right of states to provide force for their sovereignty, territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders and their political independence.

It should be noted that this fresh interpretation of the West European view of the Karabakh conflict, which complements and tightens UN Security Council resolutions (NN 822, 853, 874 884) of a similar nature to the first years of the conflict, provides a legal moral basis for further actions of Azerbaijan.

The vulnerability of the relative Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire is reinforced by the somewhat paralyzed activity of the OSCE, where the working structures are in turmoil because their leaders, represented by the Secretary General and others, were not approved because of Azerbaijan’s blocking note. On June 11, official Baku blocked the extension of the current ones - the OSCE Secretary General, the Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, the OSCE Representative on Freedom of the Media and the High Commissioner on National Minorities. No consensus was reached on July 10. At the last OSCE meeting on this issue, Moscow and Ankara were clearly among the allies of Baku, playing compromise cards in the vast East.

The blocking actions of Baku were not accidental. On July 7, prior to the OSCE meeting, in an interview with domestic television channels, President Aliyev criticized the OSCE Minsk Group for passivity. “The OSCE Minsk Group does not respond to the statement of the Armenian Prime Minister who says that Karabakh is Armenia. This statement disrupts the negotiations and makes them meaningless,” he said.

“Our position is based on historical justice and international law. The conflict should be resolved within the framework of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, we will not allow the creation of a second Armenian state on Azerbaijani land,” Aliyev said.