Marlborough goes to war

“I am returning to big politics!”, said the Ex-President of Armenia Robert Kocharian in an interview with the Armenian bureau of the Russian Information Agency Sputnik (editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan), part of the Russia Today news agency, subordinate to Margarita Simonyan).

However, this is not Kocharian's statement about returning to big politics. On January 28, in Yerevan he stated that he would take part in the early parliamentary elections, which the current authorities of the country are supposedly going to hold.

However, the first time the statement was made in Armenian language, and the second time, in Russian, probably because this time it was not addressed to the Armenian society, but to the Kremlin.

Why did Kocharyan need to inform the Russians about his plans? The answer lies is quite clear. One of the most important goals of his recent visit to Moscow was a meeting with the political leadership of Russia. Although it is no secret that getting an appointment with the top officials of any state is not an easy task. Firstly, because even the reception of officials is carried out strictly in accordance with the plan, according to a preliminary agreement, and only in special cases can it be carried out on an emergency basis. What can we say then about the visit of private individuals? They can only be taken privately. However, such high-ranking officials usually do not have time for private visits.

Of course, Kocharyan is a private person. True, at the same time he is considered a close friend of Vladimir Putin. At least in September 2018, in an interview with Kommersant's special correspondent Vladimir Solovyov, the ex-president spoke about his friendship with the Russian leader.

Most likely, Kocharian hoped that even if he failed to get an audience with Putin himself, he might be received by some of the proxies, from the presidential administration, members of the Security Council. However, the contact did not take place. The Kremlin refused to accept Kocharyan and he ... suddenly regained his sight and realized that an information vacuum had formed around him. Then he, apparently, decided to conduct reconnaissance in force - to try to break through this vacuum through the media controlled by the Armenian diaspora in Russia and at the same time find out (according to the reaction of the Kremlin) - was it created by order or did it arise arbitrarily?

Judging by the yesterday’s statement by Maria Zakharova, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, regarding the process of returning Azerbaijani internally displaced persons to the liberated from occupation in Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions, then the vacuum around Kocharian was deliberately created.

“We believe that the 7th paragraph of the trilateral statement of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia of November 9 applies to everyone who was forced to leave their former place of residence,” Zakharova said.

“We believe that the 7th paragraph of the trilateral statement of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia of November 9 applies to everyone who was forced to leave their former place of residence,” Zakharova said.

Moscow, as we can see, is interested in the implementation of the trilateral statement. Kocharyan is his opponent and intends to torpedo him, and he has incentive reasons for this.

According to the Russian political scientist O. Kuznetsov, during his presidency, Kocheryan stole from $ 4 to $ 6 billion in Armenia and took them to Russia. He also has enough assets in Armenia, which have not yet been nationalized, and he is trying to monetize them and export them outside the country.

In addition, the Armenian diaspora of Russia alone contributed about $ 700 million annually to support the separatist regime in Karabakh. In addition, after the First Karabakh war, the Armenian diaspora in the West invested heavily in Armenia and Karabakh as a reward for victory. However, the Karabakh clan (that is, Kocharyan) used this money to do business in Russia and to maintain the puppet regime in Karabakh. Before Kocharyan's arrest, the "common fund" ("thieves' cash desk", "boiler" - in the criminal jargon, a fund for mutual assistance among the criminal community) was under his control.

Later, when Nikol Pashinyan came to power in the country and imprisoned Kocharyan, many in the diaspora decided not to pay anymore and annual contributions were reduced to $ 400 million. When the COVID-19 pandemic began, business sank all over the world. Of course, the Armenian business in Russia was no exception, and the Russian diaspora was no longer able to raise $ 400 million to finance Karabakh. It must also be assumed that during Kocharyan's stay under arrest, his subordinates in Russia properly “used” assets ex-president. Therefore, it is obvious that the reason for Kocharyan's visit to Moscow was to clarify "how much is left", and the financial clarifications. He needed to find out which of the leaders of the Armenian diaspora in Russia remained loyal to the Karabakh clan and is ready to support it in the struggle for power, and who is not.

From reliable sources, it became known that during the trip Kocharian met with a businessperson, president of the All-Russian public organization "Union of Armenians of Russia" Ara Abrahamyan. Abrahamyan was once a member of the Kocharyan clan, but after he legalized in Russia and gained financial independence, took his niche in Russian business and was recognized by the authorities, he realized that cooperating with the Russian authorities and working for them is much more profitable and safer for his business than working for Armenia.

Of course, he is an Armenian nationalist and works for Armenia and Karabakh, but does it on the sly. Abrahamyan realized long ago that going against the line of the political leadership of Russia is fraught with serious consequences - they will be stripped like a sticky man.

A meeting was also held with the chairman of the board of directors of the Izvestia newspaper editorial office, the general director and president of the News Media publishing house, the president of the Baltic media group holding, the creator of the tabloid newspaper Life, the owner of the Ararat football club ( Moscow) by Aram Gabrelyanov.

Nothing is known about the content of Kocharyan's meetings with these leaders of the Armenian diaspora in Russia, but one thing is clear: Kocharian returned from Moscow empty-handed.

Knowing Kocharyan's character, one can assume with a high degree of confidence that he, against the will of the Kremlin, which ignored the Armenian ex-president, thereby making it clear that he should moderate his ardor and sit quietly, will still try to come to power, shaking the situation, by denying what the current government is doing. Moreover, many people demand Pashinyan's resignation in Armenia, including the Armenian Apostolic Church, which has traditionally high authority in Armenia. Earlier, the Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II stated that Pashinyan is responsible for the outcome of the autumn escalation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and is unable to rectify the situation.

In order to remove Pashinyan from the prime minister's chair, Kocharian needs to organize mass rallies, which will be attended by tens of thousands of people. However, now in Armenia the population has no rally activity. Even immediately after the defeat in the war in Karabakh in November last year, the Movement for the Salvation of the Motherland association of 17 opposition parties led by former Prime Minister Vazgen Manukyan failed to bring more than 5-7 thousand people to the streets. This is not due to the loyalty of citizens to the Pashinyan government, but to the fact that they do not want the return of the representatives of the Karabakh clan.

Most importantly, Kocharian has nothing to regain power - not a strong political organization (RPA - the Republican Party of Armenia has the support of 1-2, at most 3% of the population) and, accordingly, a social base. After massive protests in April-May 2018, early parliamentary elections were held in Armenia, in which on December 9, the “My Step” Bloc of the leader of the Armenian revolution Nikol Pashinyan won more than 70% of the votes. At the same time, the RPA did not enter parliament at all.

However, hardly anyone will provide him with financial support in Armenia. Large Armenian business, unless it is oriented towards Russia (and in Armenia it is mainly oriented towards the West), will not invest in the Karabakh clan, since the billions that the Armenian diaspora of the West under Kocharian invested in Armenia are in accounts, assets and business him and his entourage. Rather, businessmen will support Pashinyan.

Kocharyan also has no opportunity to come to power through a coup d'état. Since he has no support in the army, all military units from Karabakh (which ex-Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan intended to involve in suppressing popular discontent with his political machinations in the spring of 2018) were battered during the 44-day war).

In addition, the society in Armenia for the most part hates Kocharyan and his clique for the fact that under his rule Armenia has turned into a raw material appendage of the Karabakh separatists. The population of Armenia associates its depressing existence with the years of the rule of the Karabakh clan.

So, Kocharian has no resources to fight for power, but he may well create destabilization.

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"Marlbrough s'en va-t-en guerre" or "Malbrook s'en va-t-en guerre" ("Marlborough Has Left for the War" also known as "Mort et convoi de l'invincible Malbrough", "The Death and Burial of the Invincible Marlbrough") is a popular folk song in French. (https://en.wikipedia.org/)