The finish line is beyond reach

The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said after four days of consultations between the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia mediated by the State Department that a peace agreement between the two countries is "within reach."

But at the same time, he clarified that this is possible provided the good will of the leadership of the two warring Caucasian states. "I have invited ministers to return to their capitals to share with their governments the view that with additional goodwill, flexibility and compromise, an agreement will be within reach," Blinken said.

Blinken further noted that "the last mile of any marathon is always the most difficult. The USA is here to help our friends cross the finish line." It follows from the statement of the head of the State Department that the fate of the peace treaty is in the hands of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, and everything depends on their ability to agree.

Perhaps this is a hint that the West is washing its hands of it due to the unwillingness of the parties to compromise on a key aspect, the stumbling block of a possible agreement, namely on the future of the Armenian-populated territory of Karabakh (APTK.)

While in the United States, Ministers Ceyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan,  away from prying eyes at the Institute of the Diplomatic Service of the State Department in Arlington  were trying to solve the Karabakh conundrum, President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan with their statements confirmed the principled nature of their positions and the lack of progress in a peaceful settlement. At an international conference in Shusha on May 3  Aliyev said that he does not recognize the subjectivity of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, and is ready to consult with the Armenians of Karabakh as a community.

"We offered them four options for a peace agreement, and they returned them to us with their comments. They have not responded to our last option for more than 40 days, but a week before the meeting in Washington they sent their version, the essence of which is again territorial claims against Azerbaijan... any attempt to include the non-existent Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in the text of the peace treaty is counterproductive."

In turn, during his official visit to the Czech Republic on May 4, Pashinyan called on Prague and the West as a whole to apply targeted pressure on Azerbaijan in connection with the placement of the checkpoint in Lachin and the desire to conduct ethnic cleansing in Karabakh.

"Gas supply has been stopped in Nagorno-Karabakh for four months, there are power outages, food products are sold on coupons, which caused a humanitarian crisis. We consider it necessary to send an international fact-finding mission to Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin corridor. The international community should give a targeted assessment of Azerbaijan's actions."

In Arlington, the ministers discussed a draft agreement with the conditional title "Agreement on normalization of relations". The key issue of the status of the APTK for Yerevan was not included in the agenda of the negotiations.

Issues such as "self-determination" are not included in the agenda of the talks, only the "protection of the rights and security" of Armenians in accordance with Azerbaijani laws are being discussed, the Armenian Service of Radio “Liberty” reported. And this is when the Armenian side wants Karabakh to function as a subject in the negotiations.

At the time when Blinken was helping Bayramov and Mirzoyan "cross the finish line," the Kremlin at the last moment launched its barrier statement blocking all attempts by the Americans.

The press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov noted that assistance in resolving the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be welcomed, but only on the basis of uncontested trilateral agreements concluded together with the Russian Federation.

"The solution of the existing problems between the two countries and the possible elaboration of some joint actions and steps aimed at reducing tensions in the region are primarily possible on the basis of trilateral documents that were signed together with Russia. So far, there are no other legal bases that would contribute to the settlement. Accordingly, so far these trilateral documents are absolutely no alternative."

Peskov's statement actually confirmed the conclusion of The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) about the negotiations, the essence of which is that Russia and Iran will seek to neutralize American mediation in tandem.

In the WSJ comments, it is noted that the need for more active American participation has become obvious, since Russia and Iran are likely to use the Armenians of Karabakh to disrupt the peace process.

"Mr. Blinken has prepared the parties for the expectation of several days of practical American mediation. This plan represents a significant expansion of Washington's role as a peace mediator, which deserves praise. In November, Mr. Blinken also hosted Mr. Mirzoyan and Bayramov, but at that time he did little more than greet his guests and encouraged them to interact directly with each other. Now Mr. Blinken admits that in the absence of a more active American involvement, Russia and Iran will cooperate with the Armenians to spoil the peace process."

«Mr. Blinken has prepared the parties to expect several days of direct American mediation. This plan represents a significant expansion of Washington’s role as a peace mediator that should be lauded. In November, Mr. Blinken also hosted Messrs. Mirzoyan and Bayramov, but at that time he did little more than welcome his guests and encourage them to engage each other directly. Mr. Blinken now recognizes that, absent greater American involvement, Russia and Iran will work with the Armenians to spoil the peace process.» From the results of the Arlington talks it becomes clear that Moscow still manages to block the mediation efforts of Washington and Brussels.

Before the four-day meeting of the foreign ministers of the United States, Azerbaijan and Armenia, American diplomatic sources reported that if the negotiations in Washington succeed in developing a "roadmap" for peace, Europe will "finish the job" by accepting the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to conclude a peace treaty "within a few weeks."

That is, we could talk about the summit of the European Political Community on June 1 in Chisinau, which will be attended by officials of the European Union and about 50 heads of state and government of European countries, including Azerbaijan and Armenia.

"We hope that Chisinau will be able to hold a high-level dialogue similar to the one held in Prague (last October)," French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said during her visit to the region on the eve of the Arlington meeting.

Colonna repeated the French thesis: "Armenia and Azerbaijan should recognize each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity – this should become the basis of a peace treaty."

However, the signing of such an agreement is impossible due to the principled position of Yerevan and the APTK, which excludes any presence of the APTK in Azerbaijan.

Progress in the negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan is possible only if the issue of self-determination of the APTK is included in the document of the peace treaty, stated at a briefing on May 4  the Chairman of the Commission of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia for the Protection of Human Rights and Public Relations, MP Tague Tovmasyan, commenting on Washington's statement on the progress in the negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the request of journalists.

She stated that the President of France, the Chancellor of Germany, and the US congressmen who presented projects in this regard speak more about the self-determination of the APTK than Armenia itself.

According to tradition, the leader of the Karabakh Armenians, Araki Harutyunyan, did not fail to make such a statement. He called on the leadership of Armenia and all Armenians to wage a resolute and long-term struggle for "the indisputable right of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh for self-determination."

All this chaotic rhetoric of the last days of the parties concerned in the conflict and the mediators suggests that the negotiation process will continue to drift in a state of "neither peace nor war" status quo.

In these circumstances, Armenia and Azerbaijan, each proceeding from their own interests, prefer to refer to the trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020, within the framework of which the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan will hold consultations in Moscow on the eve of the European summit. It is unlikely that the Kremlin will advise Baku and Yerevan to listen to the advice of the EU leaders in Chisinau.