Trump's Unexpected Return to the White House: What It Means for America and the World

Donald J. Trump has once again won the U.S. presidential election, achieving a hard-fought victory by blending populist rhetoric, promises to reinstate "America First" policies, and criticism of the Washington establishment. His return to the Oval Office has sparked both celebration and concern nationwide, while global capitals closely monitor what a second Trump term could mean for U.S. foreign policy and international relations.

Second-Term Agenda: America First Once Again

Trump’s platform centers on reviving his "America First" agenda, emphasizing a reduced U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, cutting the trade deficit, and strengthening the American economy through what he calls "fairer" trade agreements. His campaign highlights job recovery in manufacturing, energy independence, and opposition to global institutions that he believes undermine American sovereignty.

Immigration remains a key issue for Trump, with promises to tighten border security and further restrict pathways for illegal immigrants. He has also pledged to expand infrastructure projects, revise trade agreements, and achieve "American prosperity" through tax reforms and deregulation aimed at boosting domestic industry.

First-Term Platform

In January 2017, after Trump’s inauguration, the White House website underwent significant changes. Pages related to climate change and LGBTQ rights were removed, while Trump’s iconic slogan "Make America Great Again" was prominently displayed. New sections outlined six key policy areas for his administration:

• The "America First" energy plan aimed at reducing energy costs and maximizing U.S. resources.
• "America First" foreign policy focused on defeating radical Islamic terrorist organizations.
• Plans included creating 25 million new jobs over a decade and achieving 4% annual economic growth.
• Military strength would be restored through defense upgrades and modern missile defense systems.
• Support for law enforcement included building a border wall to curb illegal immigration, gangs, violence, and drug trafficking, ending sanctuary cities, and deporting aggressive illegal immigrants.
• "Trade deals that benefit all Americans" emphasized withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and revising NAFTA.

Foreign Policy: A More Unpredictable America?

One of the most closely watched aspects of Trump’s return will be his foreign policy, as many expect he may depart from the established strategies of his predecessors. During his previous administration, Trump demonstrated a unique approach to international relations, often breaking from tradition to engage directly with global leaders. Critics, however, described his approach as inconsistent and impulsive, prompting both allies and adversaries to brace for potentially unstable global dynamics.

The current U.S. national security strategy prioritizes four areas:

1.Deterrence and defense, with a focus on preventing aggression from other states, military development, and strengthening alliances, particularly in high-tension regions such as Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East.

2.Defending and strengthening democracy, which entails promoting democratic values, countering authoritarian regimes, combating disinformation, defending against cyberattacks, and supporting human rights initiatives.

3.Economic stabilization and development, achieved by supporting domestic industry, promoting innovation, protecting supply chains, and increasing technological independence in areas such as AI and clean energy.

4.Addressing global challenges, including tackling issues such as climate change, pandemics, and transnational crime, by seeking collective solutions through partnerships with other countries, international organizations, and the private sector.

These priorities reflect the U.S.'s commitment to strengthening national security, improving domestic conditions, and maintaining international leadership while adapting to modern challenges like technological competition and climate change.

According to CNN, Trump suggested that his national security team would reassess U.S. positions on Ukraine and Russia, China, Iran, and ongoing Middle East conflicts. His revived "America First" agenda is expected to spark debates within the Republican Party, pitting national security hawks against the party's isolationist wing.

Trump’s foreign policy is anticipated to focus on leadership through personal relationships rather than institutions, in stark contrast to Biden's preference for institutional diplomacy.

Russia and Ukraine

At 78, Trump has vowed to quickly end the war in Ukraine, though he has not specified how he would achieve this. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed willingness to negotiate, contingent on recognition of Russia’s territorial gains—a position that Ukrainian leaders view as an unacceptable capitulation.

Russian troops are advancing in Ukraine at the fastest pace in a year, controlling about one-fifth of the country, including Crimea (annexed by Russia in 2014), around 80% of the Donbas, and over 70% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev remarked that a Trump victory could spell trouble for Ukraine, which relies on Washington as its primary military backer.

Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. has maintained a firm stance against Russian aggression in Ukraine. In contrast, Trump criticized U.S. support for Ukraine during his campaign, suggesting that American resources could be better spent domestically. Trump’s close ties with Putin have fueled speculation that he might soften the U.S. stance on Russia, potentially advocating for peace talks or reducing support for Kyiv under the pretext of limiting U.S. foreign intervention.

Iran and the Middle East

The previous Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, heightening tensions with Tehran. Observers expect he may adopt a similarly tough stance, applying pressure on Iran through sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Trump has emphasized that Middle Eastern alliances are key to countering Iranian influence, suggesting he may seek further normalization agreements between Israel and Arab countries, building on the Abraham Accords achieved during his first term.

Relations with China

Trump has openly expressed distrust of China, criticizing trade imbalances and asserting that unfair practices harm American workers. His second term may continue or even intensify this stance, potentially with higher tariffs and stricter policies regarding Chinese technology. His "tough on China" approach could become a cornerstone of his foreign agenda, possibly further straining U.S.-China relations and affecting sectors from trade to technology and defense.

Continuity in politics in the South Caucasus: Azerbaijan and Armenia

In the South Caucasus, Trump is expected to remain committed to the U.S. national security strategy. Notably, Azerbaijan’s war with Armenia began on September 27, 2020, and ended in a 44-day victory for Baku during Trump’s first term. Azerbaijan's restoration of sovereignty continued under Biden, indicating continuity in U.S. policy toward Azerbaijan. Given Azerbaijan's strategic location, Trump’s support for the country’s role in energy diversification efforts to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas could strengthen U.S.-Baku ties, encourage investment in energy projects, and support the Southern Gas Corridor.

Conversely, Armenia may only receive limited support, especially if Trump sees less material benefit in such engagement. Trump's preference for transactional diplomacy might prioritize Azerbaijan’s energy profile over Armenia’s lesser economic influence.

Postscript

Trump’s return signals a potential departure from traditional diplomacy in favor of transactional relationships. His "America First" ideology suggests that countries may need to reconsider their ties with Washington, while key alliances may face tension. Ultimately, Trump’s foreign policy remains unpredictable, marked by a willingness to challenge conventions and a focus on perceived American benefits. However, given his experience in adapting his campaign platform during his first term, Trump can be expected to show similar adaptability in line with U.S. national security interests.