"In the current conditions, there is very little chance of warming relations between Azerbaijan and the West"

On March 6 and 7, several employees of Public Television, as well as several members of the “Platform III” of the Republic, were arrested.

On March 6, the police raided the office of Toplum TV, as well as the apartments of several employees of the site. A criminal case has been opened against Akif Gurbanov, Farid Ismailov, Mushfig Jabbar, Ali Zeinal, Ramil Babayev, Elmir Abbasov and Ilkin Amrahov under the Article 206.3.2 (smuggling). By a court decision, Farid Ismailov and Elmir Abbasov were released and placed under police supervision, and an extreme measure of restraint was imposed on the other named persons for a period of 4 months.

On March 8, Alesker Mammadli, a lawyer and founder of the “Toplum TV” website, was detained by plainclothes people in front of the Istanbul clinic. His apartment was searched. The same charge was brought against him. Ruslan Izzetli, a member of the “Platform III” of the Republic, was also detained. Later, by a court decision, a preventive measure in the form of 4 months of imprisonment was chosen in relation to both.

Former diplomat Nahid Jafarov answers questions from ASTNA regarding the political background of these arrests.

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Question: What is the reason for the recent arrests?

Answer: The attitude of the authorities towards free media has always been unchanged - free media must be disabled. Remember, newspapers belonging to the opposition or free media used to be sold in kiosks in the country. These newspapers were the first to be attacked and not only the sale of these newspapers was banned in various ways, but even these newspapers faced charges such as smuggling and tax evasion in the courts. The next wave began with "attacks" on the offices of these organizations. After the offices were also taken out of service, the latest wave of arrests and torture against individuals began. The charges are about the same - tax evasion, smuggling, etc.

The trigger of the latest wave of arrests is the events taking place in the world. First of all, it should be noted that drastic geopolitical changes are a source of real danger for authoritarian leaders. What is happening abroad is also quite important for the government, which is disabling all civil society institutions in the country, from NGOs to political parties. Therefore, the reason for this behavior must also be sought in the processes taking place abroad.

Question: And what are these processes?

Answer: It seems that Armenia has decided to follow Georgia in a democratic way. Strengthening democratic institutions in the region is a serious problem for the authorities. For many years, anti-Armenian propaganda on Azerbaijani TV channels has cultivated a serious competitive or comparative model in the ethnic plane. With the development of democratic institutions, an inclusive economic system is being formed in Armenia. As a result, the winner and the loser (poor and rich) will be determined not by political power, as in Azerbaijan, but by the skills and abilities of people. And this will lead to an improvement in the well-being of the Armenian people. And for an Azerbaijani, who, thanks to the ongoing propaganda, believes that he is many times superior to an ordinary Armenian, seeing all this will turn out to be a tragedy and may become an impetus for national awakening. If we look at the history of the ADR, we will see that even then the processes took place in our country after Armenia and Georgia. The authorities see all this and are preparing for such a turn.

The sanctions imposed on the Russian economy against the background of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the consolidation of the West against Russia create serious uncertainty about the future of Putin's government. It is as a result of these sanctions that the Russian economy is "inflated" in an unstable or unhealthy form, due to increased military spending by the state.

Although many present this as a success for Russia, it speaks to very serious economic dangers. There is no economic return on military spending, which is being increased by Moscow. So, finances are allocated from the budget for the production of missiles, and these finances are provided to the one who produces missiles and launches them. Then this rocket is launched. As a result, the majority feels this growth not in a positive sense, but in a negative sense – in an increase in inflation. It is for this reason that the interest rate on loans in the country has been increased to 16%, which hinders investment and healthy development.

Of course, the Azerbaijani authorities are also following all this very closely. Because the income of the Azerbaijani people does not come from oil, but from Russian markets. The economic downturn in Russia will directly affect the economic situation in Azerbaijan. The wave of arrests, which is increasing on the orders of the authorities, can also be seen as a preparation for this uncertainty. On the other hand, if Russia is defeated and its economy collapses, Moscow's influence over Armenia will also be limited, which will accelerate Armenia's integration into the Euro-Atlantic space.

Question: Why are the authorities taking these steps during a period of cooling relations with the West? What is the purpose of further aggravation of relations?

Answer: Exposing the Western bribery network deprives the government of room for maneuver and encourages it to shut down.  Previously, the government could influence political decisions in the West through caviar and other means. It was as if it believed that it had these centers under control and did not see these political institutions as a serious threat. It even showed an inclination to cooperate with these institutions. Cooperation with these structures also gave the authorities serious legitimacy within the country. Against the background of all this, we saw the propaganda of reforms in the country and, in a sense, elements of mitigation. And now, all those maneuvering opportunities have disappeared, and the bribery network has collapsed. The processes are no longer monitored. This fear encourages the authorities to suppress already limited freedoms in the country.

Question: Is this step, according to experts, only a process aimed at silencing the media or civil society, or maybe there are other motives behind it?

Answer: Based on the above, it can be noted that all this promises an uncertain future for the authorities. Authoritarian authorities also hate uncertainty. If we add to this the situation in which Turkiye will find itself after Erdogan, then the situation does not seem so pleasant and stable to the authorities. Obviously, this worries the authorities and further centralizes its inner strength.

Question: There is a theory that in the near future we will witness an even greater rapprochement of Azerbaijani-Russian relations. The second version is that Azerbaijan is trying to persuade the West on some issue. The reason for these arrests is also to make them a "bargaining chip." Which version is more likely?

Answer: The question of the West has already lost its relevance for the authorities. Russia's war with Ukraine has shown the authorities that dependence on the energy market does not play such a serious role. Because the West has easily been able to minimize its dependence on Russia. On the other hand, the war in Ukraine is also characterized as a war between the camps of democracy and authoritarianism. When the West wins this war, democratic values may become relevant again, which will seriously affect the West's relations with authoritarian systems in the neighborhood.  That is, in the current conditions, the probability of a warming of Azerbaijan's relations with the West is extremely low.

At the same time, along with Russia and Turkiye, we can also see a warming of relations with Iran.  Armenia's rapprochement with the West worries not only Russia, but also Iran, and this concern may strengthen the Azerbaijan-Russia-Iran triangle. In addition, the authorities may also give preference to alternative ideologies, such as Turkism, Turanism, using the nationalistic feelings of ethnic Turks, who make up the majority in the country. Because all this creates an opportunity for the authorities to maneuver.

Question: How will the processes go? Will the arrests continue? What can stop this process?

Answer: If Russia is defeated, the most serious pillar of power will collapse. It goes without saying that the government, which is afraid of this, will become even tougher inside. On the other hand, the collapse of the Russian economy will have a serious impact on the economy of Azerbaijan and will seriously increase poverty in the country. As a result, discontent in the country will increase. It will also lead to the fact that the government will become more rigid and even ruthless. The main reason why these processes are taking place is that the Azerbaijani people remain outside the political processes. If the people are actively involved in political processes, then all the rules of the game will change. The exclusion of people from political processes may in itself be a result, but since this is not the topic of this interview, I will not comment on it in depth.