The Choice Between Gratitude and Ingratitude

One of the deputies suggested that we repeatedly show scenes of devastated Syria on our television channels. This way, people can understand that geopolitical stability is above all else. We should deeply analyze the policies that brought Syria to its current state and make them a lesson for our citizens, emphasizing that security comes before everything. In short, we should not pause propaganda efforts that stress the importance of security.

Is this an interesting propaganda material or not? Let’s think about it...

First of all, why should we adopt policies that would draw comparisons to Syria? Why should we look at the authoritarian, dictatorial political systems of the Middle East and feel grateful for our current situation? Why should we be thankful when we are not even located in a region where the global powers’ interests collide, as in the Middle East? Perhaps because we are blessed with a variety of climates, abundant renewable and non-renewable energy resources, and a generous share of nature’s gifts? Or because we feel the supportive hand of a great brother like Turkey on our back? Why should we compare ourselves to Syria, Afghanistan, or Nigeria?

If we can reach a consensus amidst the cross-pressures from major powers like Russia and Iran, then it’s logical to understand the need for gratitude. Figuratively speaking, we should be thankful we are not in hell – I agree. But why shouldn’t we also express ingratitude for failing to build paradise despite our immense oil and gas wealth?

In reality, comparisons are a great opportunity for reflection. Truths often emerge from comparisons. However, comparisons must be appropriate.

Do you know whom we should compare ourselves to when deciding between gratitude and ingratitude? Not to the Far East, but to our close neighbors. If we compare ourselves to the Baltic states and find areas where we excel, then we can be grateful.

If we compare ourselves to Eastern European countries and can generate a GDP per capita of $50,000 to $60,000, then we can be thankful. But if our economy, driven by the engine of oil, produces a mere $7,200 GDP per capita, what exactly are we being thankful for?

Our comparison with the Middle East, where global powers’ interests clash, is a scenario of extreme pessimism. On the other hand, comparing ourselves to the European Union or Western countries reflects excessive optimism. However, our economic parameters allow us to compare ourselves with resource-rich states and those with similar histories of independence. The most realistic comparisons for us are resource-based post-Soviet countries and Eastern European nations.

We can compare ourselves to Georgia and be grateful that we don’t face vulnerabilities like the loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, we must also criticize ourselves for failing to establish a liberal economy like Georgia.

Georgia stands one step away from full EU membership, is a member of the WTO, holds superior positions in international rankings, and boasts a significantly higher volume of non-resource exports per capita. These achievements give us ample reason for self-reflection.

Despite negotiating since 1997, Azerbaijan has not yet become a WTO member. There’s a perception that WTO membership restricts export opportunities and allows foreign companies to monopolize domestic markets, pushing out local producers. However, the opposite has happened. Since Georgia joined the WTO in 2000, its per capita export levels have risen significantly. In 2023, Azerbaijan’s non-oil exports per capita amounted to $340, while in Georgia, this figure exceeded $1,200.

Georgia has not taken a step backward in its representation in the Council of Europe. Instead, it replaced it with higher levels of cooperation. By leveraging the EU’s Eastern Partnership Program, Georgia secured €10 billion in financial support. It then advanced further, obtaining official EU candidate status on December 14, 2023. In contrast, Azerbaijan ceased its activities in the Council of Europe at the beginning of this year (January 24, 2024).

Meaningful integration with European structures has significantly benefited Georgia, both its state and its citizens. For instance, in terms of international passport rankings, Georgia is ranked 44th, while Azerbaijan is 70th. Georgian citizens can travel to 122 countries visa-free, whereas Azerbaijani citizens have access to only 72 countries without a visa.

Over the past 25 years, Azerbaijan has generated more than $200 billion in resource revenues. This was a golden opportunity to transform the "black gold" into human capital. The connection between human capital and the Human Development Index (HDI) should be clear to everyone. One of the key indicators of the HDI is life expectancy. While the global average life expectancy is 83 years, in Azerbaijan, it is 76 years. Even this figure, though debatable, places us last among South Caucasus countries. Out of 189 countries, Armenia ranks 76th, Georgia 60th, and Azerbaijan 89th. If you wish to express gratitude for this, go ahead.

Life expectancy is largely influenced by healthcare sustainability. After 20 years of oil and gas revenues, Azerbaijan only recently introduced mandatory health insurance. Issues in the healthcare system, combined with factors such as psychological stress and poor food quality, have made Azerbaijan the second-highest country in the world for sudden death cases. This highlights the concerning state of social and psychological conditions in the country.

Another key indicator characterizing the social situation is the sustainability of the social protection and welfare system. According to official data, 45% of Azerbaijani citizens die before reaching pension age. Citizens contribute to pension funds, yet nearly half are unable to benefit from them. Even those who do reach pension age find the amounts insufficient.

As the retirement age in our country continues to increase, the number of pension recipients is also decreasing. A few years ago, the number of pensioners was 1.3 million, but it has now dropped to 1.1 million. This accounts for about 10% of the country's population. For comparison, this figure is 17% in Armenia and 23% in Georgia. This means that both countries allocate, on average, twice as much of their budgets to pension expenses as Azerbaijan does.

According to the 2022 report by the International Labour Organization (link here), the coverage of the elderly population eligible for pensions in Azerbaijan has sharply declined over the past 20 years.

Given these numerous socio-economic indicators, should we feel gratitude or dissatisfaction? Why should a “student” who claims to be the best in the South Caucasus (producing 75% of its GDP) compare themselves with the “top performers” of weaker classes? A top student should compare themselves to the best in the elite group!

After resolving the Karabakh issue, we as a country must adopt a fundamentally different socio-economic policy. We need to address our internal problems and overcome the social and economic stalemate so that we can withstand external threats. Strength must come from within—our people. With such internal strength, the government’s affiliated media won’t need to invent imaginary threats or resort to conspiratorial narratives. Even in the face of real threats, we’ll be able to neutralize them with this mobilized internal power.

At that point, our focus will not be on distant countries like Syria or Afghanistan but on the trends of civilized world nations.

Speaking of Afghanistan… According to last year’s data, the share of investments in fixed capital as a percentage of GDP was 17% in Afghanistan, while in Azerbaijan, it was only 13%. Do you know what this means? The inflow of investments into fixed capital, which serves as a driver of economic growth, is declining in our country. When the investment climate is unsatisfactory, investments in fixed capital either halt or become restricted. This increases the risk of capital repatriation from the country.

Capital is always in motion and seeks favorable environments. It does not flow to Syria. We must ensure that it flows to Azerbaijan.