Illusions of Promises in Passenger Transportation Progress

Inaccurate Records

On January 10, during a meeting with journalists specializing in the transport sector, Rahman Gummetov, Deputy Minister of Digital Development and Transport, discussed the ministry's success in transitioning to "green transport," aiming to electrify all Baku buses by 2030. He also highlighted a record number of passengers using railway transport. Gummetov stated that in 2024, Azerbaijani Railways (AR) served approximately 8.5 million passengers, compared to over 7 million in 2023. With the Baku-Balakan railway route that began operation on January 3, 2025, passenger numbers are expected to increase significantly nationwide.

However, in reality, Azerbaijan's railway transport efficiency does not even reach half the annual performance of the Soviet era. According to data from AR, the peak of passenger transportation over 145 years of railway history in Azerbaijan was in 1970, with 32 million passengers. In 1980, this figure was 31.5 million, and by 1988, it had declined to 21 million passengers. These figures include trips to destinations outside Azerbaijan, which ceased during the coronavirus pandemic and have not resumed for unclear reasons. For instance, of the 31.5 million passengers in 1980, 20 million were from suburban railways around Baku. Even if an equivalent number of passengers traveling outside the country were added to the 2024 figure (8.5 million), the hypothetical 17 million passengers would still fall short of the 1970-1988 levels.

Freight transport peaked at 100 million tons in 1988 but was only 18.2 million tons in 2023.

The most remarkable historical figure includes all rail-based transport, such as metro, trains, and trams: in 1988, 202.5 million passengers were transported in Azerbaijan. Environmentally friendly trams and trolleybuses have been absent in Baku since January 2004. Thus, claims of successful AR operations are, at best, historically inaccurate.

Does AR claim a tenth of the annual profit of the state?

On January 10, representatives of the Ministry of Digital Development and Transport promised to eliminate air-polluting vehicles in Azerbaijan, encouraging citizens to switch from cars to trains and electric buses. At a press conference, plans for new tram routes in Baku were also announced. However, can state-subsidized agencies deliver on these promises?

According to the announced plans, a new tram line will connect Mehdiabad settlement with the center of Baku, passing through Binagadi, Azadlig Avenue, and reaching the 28 May metro station. Deputy Minister Rahman Gumbatov also mentioned plans to transport passengers to the Seabreeze resort complex, considering the development of new residential areas in the region.

The combined length of two tram routes, running through densely populated settlements, is estimated at approximately 70 kilometers. In the Russian city of Krasnodar, where construction costs are similar, 70 kilometers of tram tracks were estimated at 25 billion rubles (source). Therefore, constructing tracks of the same length in Baku would cost 417 million manats (as of January 12).

AR lacks such funds; revenue from railway passenger transport in the first half of 2024 amounted to 4.9968 million manats. While this is an 18.4% increase compared to the first half of 2023, it is insufficient to subsidize such projects. Consequently, AR hopes for government subsidies with a slim chance of recouping investments. However, Azerbaijan's consolidated budget for 2025 is 44.3714 billion manats. Would the government allocate a tenth of its annual revenue for two tram lines? This seems unlikely, as the project offers no foreseeable return.

Uncertain Future for Land Passenger Transportation

Every quarter, the government extends the COVID-19 quarantine period. On January 1, the restriction on land passenger transport outside the country was extended until April 1, 2025. There is little hope that land borders will reopen soon. This raises questions about the foundation of the Ministry of Digital Development and Transport's plans to develop railway passenger transportation.