Alexey Navalniy’ phenomenon

It is worth pointing out that «Levada-center» qualified the year 2020 as the hardest for Russians since 1991; however, it is thought that following the results of the current year the Russian Center for Sociological Studies is expected to change its option. It is not the continuing pandemic only but the political line as that led the country into large-scale crisis. Analysts are inclined to believe that authorities’ unwillingness to revise erroneous decisions will be fraught with much harder economic consequences in 2021. The powers-that-be are afraid of any novelties in terms of no dialogue with society.

It will suffice to mention views of independent journalists who stress that «attitudes to the authorities are unprintable» and the forthcoming elections to the State Duma are dire threat. Why? At first glimpse, there is absolutely controlled political space, lack of opponents and a prearranged list of deputies. Note that kremlin is well aware of the fact that the state power is shifted when protests of the broad public are supplemented with protests of parliamentarians. Perhaps, this factor explains why the authorities are full of unfaltering determination to decide with Navalniy by hedge or by stile?

From now on, Navalniy is the Russian political prisoner number one. Even worse, Kremlin is disregarding any laws and appearances. No longer Putin is afraid of any western sanctions, critical commentaries and calls of European and American politicians for further isolation.

Risking all in a single bet, Putin knows it very well that Navalniy is capable of overthrowing his regime» - (Jeanne Nemtsova, Bild, 20.01.21).

It has to be kept in mind that there are not so many social technologies in terms of economy stagnation, and most of them go back to aggravation of Constitution-adapted repressions. On the one hand, the situation causes ever growing difficulties; on the other hand, generates new opportunities for public protest. There is so much hatred in Russia that it’d be rather difficult for the authorities to play the situation into a corner.

At the same time, it seems a stretch of imagination that Navalniy’s calls for meetings could have generated such a backlash. Note that Navalniy returned from Germany to Russia on night, January 17 after the Russian sentence-implementation service demanded to substitute a suspended sentence in the case of «Ives Roche» for a jail time, for he «evaded a criminal procedure». Navalniy was detained at Sheremetyevo airport and taken to a Khimki police department where on January 8 the court remanded his detention in custody for 30 days.

It must be acknowledged that the first mass protest demonstrations took place across the country on January 23. According to Navalniy’ supporters, the meetings were held in 120 cities with 300 000 protesters involved. It is emphasized that the point is about a record-setting figure of protesters since 2011, including those detained and taken to police departments (approx. 4,000). The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation initiated several criminal cases the number of which will continue to rise.

In turn, analysts point out that the current events are unprecedented for Putin Russia as evidenced by prodigious Saturday meetings and demonstrations that embraced an area from Vladivostok to Sanct-Petersburg. In the meanwhile, «Oppositionist Alexey Navalniy’s associates have declared that in the nearest Sunday, on January 31 they are going to run new actions of protest in 53 cities of Russia. When it comes to Moscow, Navalniy’s supporters are minded to run out in front of the Russian Federal Security Service building, on Lubyanskaya and Staraya Ploshad, and then hold «a protest demonstration» across the city en route «depending upon the situation».

In the meantime, the West and G-7 member-countries sharply disagreed with Putin’s methods calling him to immediately release Navalniy and his supporters, journalists having been detained in the course of meetings. They reminded that Navalniy was detained due to court decisions the European Court for Human Rights recognized unwarranted and untenable. Ministers of G-7 member-countries condemned Navalniy’s poisoning to remind the Russian Federation authorities about inadmissibility of the use of chemical weapons and the necessity of transparent investigation of this crime.

An exciting statement was made by Andrey Klimov, a head of the commission under the Federation Council on Sovereignty Protection: «Should Navalniy’s reset as an outerly assigned  protest leader fail again, an attempt would be made to transform Julia Navalniy into Tihanovskaya-2 by analogy to the wife of the Belarus oppositionist as West’s obvious henchman». Prior to January 24 Klimov claimed that Navalniy’s support actions across the country had been staged by western «special services». Note that both public officials and oppositionists are unanimous in drawing parallels between Russia and Belarus.

How will events develop from now forth? How long are two confrontation headliners minded to demonstrate invariability of their position?

Added to these can be that a Moscow correspondent of the British «Guardian», Andrew Rot notes that the Russian authorities have exhausted all possible ways to solve the problem and get over and done with Navalniy but a lengthy term of imprisonment. «Now that opposition politician’ elimination failed, and Navalniy has personally challenged the authorities, Putin has to get out of mess. All things considered, Navalniy’ arrest at Sheremetyevo simply means a reversal of Kremlin’s political strategy». An eloquent testimony to the above are views of Russian public mass media declaring that the authorities are not minded to yield to aggressive protesters. Account has also to be taken of the fact that representatives of all branches of power are displaying a complete unanimity in accusing Navalniy and his associates of all manner of offences.

On the hand, an intuitive impression says that the present drama may end in farcical play. Should the final drag out, the possibility remains that there would emerge scores of other heroes paradoxically seeking to inform their opponents about «palace secrets».

Most probably, Navalniy is a transient figure on a winning streak and blaze of glory. There are considerable doubts that he would be able to acquire a skill of state management. The point is that even a main «non-systemic opposition» failed to acknowledge him as the leader and thus mend its fences.

The above mentioned is not aimed at downplaying the Navalniy’s role at the present situation: full of valiancy, all his actions are infuriating the Russian authorities. As viewed by political expert Leonid Radzikhovskiy, «there are no people of spirit in Russia today, so he has no one to rest upon, especially as West’s support is «voice and nothing more».

Ali Abasov